5 Biggest Los Angeles Lakers Questions Right Now
The Los Angeles Lakers have been on quite the journey over the last three years, winning the title in 2020, stumbling through injuries and ill-advised trade(s) to miss the playoffs, only to right the ship for a run to the Western Conference Finals.
The team can build upon its success or backslide with the wrong moves. The goal appears to focus on winning a title while staying younger with emerging players like Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. Of course, neither is under contract as of July 1.
Add that LeBron James suggested retirement was an option; L.A. has to understand that its franchise player may not be around much longer. The window with James may not be closed, but it won't stay open forever.
What are the top questions the Lakers face this offseason?
Is LeBron Actually Retiring?
Despite his semi-cryptic comments at the end of the season, there's no sense that James will forego his projected salary of $46.9 million for 2023-24. Per multiple sources, the Lakers are operating under the expectation that James will lead the team this coming season.
If James stuns the world in some outlandish multiversal circumstance, disregard everything that follows.
Will he opt out of his final year and join his son, Bronny James, presumably joining the NBA in 2024? That remains a distinct possibility unless the Lakers can find a way to draft the younger James.
Will the Lakers Lose Reaves and Rui?
Los Angeles has the advantage in restricted free agency. The team controls the fate of both Reaves and Rui. Should any team issue an offer sheet, the Lakers will have approximately 24 hours to match.
"Someone is going to give Austin a big offer, even if it's just to put a big number on the Lakers," one competing executive said.
The most L.A. can offer Reaves directly is just over $50 million (TBD on June 30). But Reaves is subject to the Arenas Rule, detailed in March on B/R, which can raise that figure considerably. The NBA and NBPA have agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement, which has changed some of the projected figures—leading some around the league to wonder if a quirk in the rules could allow another team to give an offer larger than what the Lakers can match.
But league sources have clarified to B/R that the spirit of the rule will remain intact come July. It will be the Lakers' decision, even if another team issues Reaves an offer in the $100 million range over four seasons.
Hachimura is a straightforward restricted free agent, eligible for up to a starting max of approximately $33.5 million. His market value, as projected by multiple competing executives, is in the $12-18 million starting range.
Most teams won't have more than the $12.2 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception to chase Reaves and Hachimura. But at least seven should have significant spending power, as detailed in B/R's Complete 2023 Offseason Guides for Every NBA Team, including the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors and Utah Jazz. Several others could end up with cap room, like the Sacramento Kings, but that will depend on which of their own free agents they retain.
The buzz among league sources has L.A. planning on keeping both players, though, as noted, offers could be coming to force the Lakers to match at a higher price.
What Will the Lakers Do at Point Guard?
Both D'Angelo Russell and Dennis Schroeder will be unrestricted free agents in July. The arrival of Russell, among the team's other acquisitions before the trade deadline, sparked the Lakers' run to four wins short of the NBA Finals.
Russell was not outstanding against the Denver Nuggets, eventually benched for Schroder late in the series. While he wasn't necessarily consistent throughout the postseason, he shined in crucial moments that helped the Lakers get as far as they did.
Schroeder is a favorite of head coach Darvin Ham, and while he's not as dynamic a playmaker or shooter as Russell, he is a scrappier defender.
Add that Chris Paul is soon en route to the Washington Wizards for Bradley Beal, which could lead to the Lakers pivoting to the veteran (or adding him while retaining Russell and Schroder).
Paul's situation remains unclear, but his family remained in Los Angeles after his 2017 trade from the Clippers to the Houston Rockets (that eventually led to the Suns). The Wizards may look to re-trade Paul (or expand the deal into a mult-team swap), which could take Paul out of the Lakers' price range—the team isn't going to try and package expiring contracts for Paul at his $30 million full pricetag. Instead, the Clippers are a potential suitor to reunite with the veteran point guard.
If Paul ultimately ended up with the Lakers, Ham tends to favor three-guard lineups, and 6'4" Russell can play at the 2 with Reaves at small forward and both Schroder and Hachmiura off the bench.
That combination had playoff success (with Schroder) against the Golden State Warriors but proved undersized against the Nuggets.
How Much Do the Lakers Have to Spend?
Regarding money, the Lakers project to be over the $134 million salary cap with a commitment to Hachimura but could get to about $27.6 million in space with every potential free agent departing except for Jarred Vanderbilt and Reaves ($31.2 million if Vanderbilt was also cut). The cap room path would also give L.A. a $7.6 million room mid-level exception.
But all signs suggest the team will stick with its depth. Russell's starting salary is harder to project. If he was probably in the $25 million range earlier in the postseason, his Western Conference Finals performance might have brought that down (coupled with a tight free-agent market for the veteran) to or even below $20 million.
If the Lakers could manage to keep Reaves, Hachimura and Russell at a combined total of $47 million, the team could have access to the $12.2 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. But that would trigger the league's first apron hard cap at a projected $169 million, which could hamper flexibility.
Those figures assume that L.A. doesn't keep Malik Beasley ($16.5 million team option) or Mo Bamba ($10.3 million non-guaranteed). If the Lakers forgo the larger exception, the next hard cap will start at the $179.5 million second apron, but only if the team uses the $5 million taxpayer mid-level (which might be needed for Schroeder or Paul).
The new rules are a lot to keep track of, but the Lakers can keep nearly the entire roster together, including potential free agents Lonnie Walker IV, Bamba, Reaves, Hachmiura, Russell, Schroder and Vanderbilt, while staying under that second apron. Also, pencil in a more significant role for second-year wing Max Christie.
That likely means that Beasley is not retained. Bamba and Russell are a little harder to predict.
Bamba's salary guarantees in full on June 29, though that could be pushed back if both sides agreed to do so. The Lakers also need to decide on Shaquille Harrison's non-guaranteed $2.4 million, though it may be more likely he's waived and possibly re-signed on a one-year minimum.
Will the Lakers Pick at Nos. 17 and 47?
The Lakers have brought in several prospects throughout the pre-draft process. Look for the team to take the best player available—but if some of its favored prospects aren't available, the team could look to trade back.
Keep an eye on teams like the Brooklyn Nets (Nos. 21 and 22), Indiana Pacers (Nos. 26, 29 and 32) and Charlotte Hornets (Nos. 27, 34 and 39). But the most likely path is L.A. selecting at No. 17.
B/R NBA Draft guru Jonathan Wasserman has the team mocked to take wings Jordan Hawkins (Connecticut) and Terquavion Smith (North Carolina State).
Should a trade emerge, the Lakers could opt Beasley in or guarantee (some or all) of Bamba, Vanderbilt and Harrison's salaries (though Harrison cannot be dealt until July 9). The Nets have a couple of viable targets like Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O'Neale.
Just keep in mind that the new rules punish teams with heavier salaries. The Lakers don't need to treat the second apron like a hard cap this season but should look ahead to future years when the punishments become much more stringent.
That's where understanding how many years James intends to stay with the franchise would come in handy, along with a potential Anthony Davis extension (eligible in early August to add up to three additional years through 2027-28).
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @EricPincus.
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