US Open Golf 2023: Latest Projections After Thursday's Leaderboard Analysis
Golf fans were treated to an exciting opening round at the U.S. Open on Thursday. While much of the field had never played the Los Angeles Country Club North Course, the unfamiliarity didn't stop low scores from being the story of the day.
With wide-open fairways, clear weather and five Par 3s, several competitors made it look easy in Round 1. Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele each shot a 62, the new U.S. Open record and only the third score of 62 recorded in a men's major.
Brendan Grace shot a 62 during the third round of the 2017 Open Championship.
Fans were even treated to a couple of holes-in-one, which Sam Burns and Matthieu Pavon both delivered on the 15th hole.
Only 60 golfers (plus ties) will make the cut into the weekend, and the line is shaping up to be a low one. Going into Friday, more than 80 players have shot +1 or lower.
Let's take a look at the leaderboard, the updated odds and make a few predictions for the rest of the weekend.
Remaining US Open Schedule and Leaderboard
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When: June 16-18
Where: Los Angeles Country Club
Prize Pool: $17.5 million ($3.15 million to winner)
TV Schedule
Friday: 1-8 p.m. ET (USA); 8-11 p.m. ET (NBC)
Saturday: 1-11 p.m. ET (NBC)
Sunday: 1-10 p.m. ET (NBC)
Live Stream: Peacock, USOpen.com, NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app
Leaderboard
T1. Rickie Fowler -8
T1. Xander Schauffele -8
T3. Wyndham Clark -6
T3. Dustin Johnson -6
T5. Rory McIlroy -5
T5. Brian Harman -5
T7. Bryson DeChambeau -3
T7. Scottie Scheffler -3
T7. Si Woo Kim -3
T7. Paul Barjon -3
T7. Harris English -3
T7. Sam Bennett -3
T7. Mackenzie Hughes -3
*Full leaderboard can be found at PGATour.com
Updated Odds
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Xander Schauffele 31-10
Rory McIlroy 5-1
Scottie Scheffler 13-2
Rickie Fowler 13-2
Dustin Johnson 19-2
Wyndham Clark 12-1
Jon Rahm 18-1
Bryson DeChambeau 22-1
Viktor Hovland 35-1
Tony Finau 35-1
Max Homa 35-1
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Analysis and Projections
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Fowler and Schauffele made history on Thursday and have set the tone for the rest of the tournament.
Schauffele's spot atop the leaderboard isn't particularly surprising. While the 29-year-old hasn't been as hot as Masters winner Jon Rahm, PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka or Scottie Scheffler, who is No. 1 in the world golf rankings, he's played very well as of late, with three top-four finishes in his last five outings.
The San Francisco-born competitor also possesses a skill set that meshes with the LACC course, where long, sloping greens can present the biggest challenges. Schauffele ranks 12th in strokes gained through putting, according to PGATour.com.
Fowler ranks a more modest 51st in that category, though that's still impressive. Fowler's spot atop the leaderboard is a little more surprising, as he doesn't have a top-five finish this year, missed the cut at the PGA Championship and hasn't won a PGA event since 2019.
However, Fowler does have top-10 finishes in each of his last two outings and appears to have regained some confidence.
"It's definitely been long and tough. A lot longer being in that situation than you'd ever want to," Fowler said, per Yahoo Sports' Christina Huang. "But it makes it so worth it having gone through that and being back where we are now."
It's hard to see either Schauffele or Fowler dropping out of contention after the way they played on Thursday, but it's not as if the duo has completely run away with the tournament. A large group of golfers remains within striking distance, including Burns, Scheffler, Dustin Johnson, Si Woo Kim, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy.
McIlroy is a particularly intriguing competitor to watch following Thursday's round. While he wasn't as spectacular as Schauffele and Fowler, his play was impressive for most of the day. A whiff in the rough on the 18th hole led to his only bogey of the round, and he remains within a few strokes off the leaders.
Johnson is also right in the mix, though he too finished with a bogey to close out an otherwise strong round. He was one shot off the lead going into his final hole.
It would also be unwise to count out local product Max Homa, who owns the course record (61) and who remains in good shape at -2. Not every golfer has fared well, though. Early favorites like Brooks Koepka and Collin Morikawa are over par heading into Friday.
The race to the top will bring plenty of excitement on Day 2, as will the fight to avoid the cut.
Top Five Predictions
1. Xander Schauffele
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Bryson DeChambeau
5. Rickie Fowler
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