Breaking Down Where MLB Teams Stand Ahead as 2023 MLB Trade Season Approaches
Before we realize it, the eight weeks between now and the MLB Trade Deadline will have passed and major baseball decisions will be staring teams in the face.
With nearly 40 percent of the regular season played, there is a decent enough understanding of which teams to expect to contend in each league.
At the very least, there is a clearer picture of how teams should be approaching the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
Here, we project the most relevant teams into six tiers: buyers, sellers, teams in between, big spenders who are underperforming and a few others in a rare position.
Buyers
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Atlanta
The arms race so many anticipated in the NL East has not exactly materialized. Atlanta is the class of the division and has the best record in the NL.
They also lead the NL in run differential, OPS and sport the lowest ERA. It's actually remarkable how Atlanta has pulled this off, considering injuries to Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson in their rotation.
To make good on this run, it's only sensible for general manager Alex Anthopoulos to aggressively shop the market for starting pitchers at the trade deadline.
Pitchers like Shane Bieber and Marcus Stroman are among those who could be available and shore up Atlanta's rotation.
Houston Astros
Houston and Atlanta are similar in a lot of ways, but specifically in how it relates to the trade deadline. Both are missing key pieces to their rotation and performing in spite of it.
The Astros let Justin Verlander walk in free agency, then lost Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy to significant injuries.
All-Star Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and rookie Hunter Brown are doing just fine at the top of their rotation, with another rookie J.P. France and Brandon Bielak admirably picking up the slack.
But how long can the Astros rely on this group to lead them to the lowest ERA in baseball?
First-year general manager Dana Brown, who worked closely with Anthopoulos in Atlanta, and should be thinking along the same lines.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are in the unusual spot of scrapping among the NL contenders, rather than being a clear-cut favorite.
They are currently the NL Wild-Card leader, but 1.5 games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the NL West lead.
Pitching has suffered in Los Angeles because of injuries to Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May and Daniel Hudson.
Even the Dodgers would have to acknowledge this is one of the least consistent teams they have produced in this impressive run over the past decade. The bullpen has been a nightly adventure and need reinforcements.
They have shown a history of making big deadline deals and they need it now more desperately than ever.
New York Yankees
The Yankees enter Friday 0.5 games up on Astros for the final two AL Wild Card spots. Both are considered serious contenders for the 2023 World Series even if they fail to win their respective divisions.
With that in mind, expect the Yankees to be active at the deadline. Like the Dodgers, the Yankees have a tendency to make moves. Just look at them trading for Frankie Montas, Harrison Bader, Lou Trivino and Andrew Benintendi last year.
We talked earlier about the arms race in the NL East and it's similar with the AL counterpart.
Only the American League is even more competitive. Every AL East team was .500 or better before Boston's loss on Thursday, and only two of the five AL West teams were below .500.
But the Yankees can't look at how last year played out, then see how this season is playing out, and truly believe they have enough to win it all without being active at the deadline.
Minnesota Twins
This is an interesting position to be in for the Twins: leading what is objectively MLB's worst division. Someone has to win it, and whoever that is will be rewarded for doing so.
With the Twins at 31-32, they have to be realistic about their place in the AL ecosystem.
Their first-place AL Central record would put them tied for last place in the AL East, and fourth place in the AL West. They have a worse record than every Wild Card team, in both leagues.
Minnesota will have to make moves at the deadline if it wants to be serious.
Sellers
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Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are a perpetual disappointment. Over the last two years, most thought it was a manager problem, or simply bad health luck.
After all, there are talented pieces on Chicago's South Side—as there have been for years now. But they have struggled to put it all together, no matter the manager, and even with this level of talent.
As hinted with the Twins, the only road for an AL Central team to the postseason is through winning the division. The White Sox are nine games out of a Wild Card spot, but just four games behind Minnesota.
So things could turn for the White Sox, but that's been the feeling for a while and it still hasn't happened. Contenders should be checking on players like Eloy Jiménez, Tim Anderson and Dylan Cease. The White Sox don't seem to have much use for them and the returns would help start the inevitable rebuild.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are a tricky one to put here because of their mind-blowing inactivity at the past two trade deadlines.
In 2021, they failed to trade Jon Gray or Trevor Story, though it was clear and obvious both players would soon be leaving in free agency.
Then last year, the Rockies seemed defiant again, as the only one of 30 major league teams not to make some sort of trade at the deadline, despite being 46-60 and well out of the playoff picture.
Still, they have players who should draw interest from serious teams. Outfielder Randal Grichuk, starting pitcher Chase Anderson and reliever Brent Suter were all mentioned by MLB.com's Mark Feinsand as potential trade chips who are playing well at the moment. The focus should be on bolstering what B/R ranks as the No. 14 farm system.
Detroit Tigers
It is fair to classify the Tigers as a clear non-contender at this point. They own a losing record and a negative run differential in baseball's weakest division.
There are some attractive trade pieces for the Tigers, including starting pitchers Eduardo Rodríguez and Michael Lorenzen.
Rodríguez is on the injured list with a ruptured A4 pulley in his left index finger (throwing hand), but is seeking another opinion to help determine his next course of action.
How serious the Rodríguez injury is and availability later this season matters. He was 17th in xFIP through 11 starts before the injury, indicating one of the game's best pitchers is being wasted on one of its worst teams.
Kansas City Royals
In J.J. Picollo's second official season as Royals general manager, we are still trying to get a feel for his team-building strategy. The Royals are an interesting mix of respectable veterans who are not really helping them win, and younger players are not quite ready to win.
Last year, in Picollo's first season at the helm, he traded away Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield. It would make sense to have similar plans for someone like Aroldis Chapman, or even young players like M.J. Melendez and Nicky Lopez.
Picollo has to delicately balance player development with deciding which players should stick around to be developed. That's the challenge for a team as young as the Royals.
Washington Nationals
Sitting at last place in the NL East with the fewest wins in the National League, it's obvious the Nationals should be willing to flip any short-term talent into a more long-term piece.
The 2019 World Series season now seems like a decade ago, and the Nationals are sorting through a new era for the franchise. With this trade deadline, standout third baseman Jeimer Candelario is expected to draw interest on the market.
He went 0-for-4 and struck out twice Wednesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but he went in slashing .329/.444/.610 over his previous 23 games and ranked 10th in MLB in outs above average.
Stuck In-Between (AL)
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Seattle Mariners
After ending the longest MLB postseason drought last season, there was a thought the Mariners could take another step in challenging the Astros in the AL West.
Between the emergence of Julio Rodríguez, last year's rookie sensation, and the addition of players like Teoscar Hernandez and Kolten Wong, this was supposed to be a top-tier team this year.
It hasn't exactly worked out that way, with Seattle barely staying around .500 and next-to-last in the AL West standings.
The Mariners have invested too much energy into this current roster to start selling, and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said on his local radio show that the team will be in the market for a bat.
Through 61 games, the Mariners ranked 26th in OPS and 20th in runs scored. They clearly need offense, but what's hard to tell is which moves to push them beyond this mediocre rut.
Cleveland Guardians
Despite their losing record, the Guardians are close enough to the top of the struggling AL Central to still feel like they could repeat as division champions.
If only they could slug or create runs. Cleveland through 61 games ranks last in wRC+ and next-to-last in slugging.
It's a problem with how they've been constructed and signing Josh Bell in free agency did not suddenly fix it.
The Guardians will be worth watching because Shane Bieber is such an obvious and appealing trade piece, which Cleveland could use to fetch more offense, given its surplus of young pitching talent and desperate need to score more runs.
In this way, the Guardians could stand to buy and sell at the deadline.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox held a 31-32 record through 63 games. That would be good enough to lead the AL Central, but it's bad enough for worst in the AL East.
Tough break, but the good thing for all East teams is the feeling none of them are out of the playoff picture, with everyone playing .500 or better baseball with positive run differentials.
The Red Sox and Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom have already made some puzzling trade deadline decisions such as not trading Xander Bogaerts or Nathan Eovaldi last year, only to see them leave in free agency in the offseason.
Whether Boston is buying, selling or stuck somewhere in between, fans will be monitoring to see if the process at least makes sense this time.
Stuck In-Between (NL)
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Chicago Cubs
President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer was fairly honest about when the Cubs would know whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline.
Since they are in that "in-between" stage of having talent but a losing record in a bad division, there is still some hope of making a run this summer. So Hoyer told The Athletic he won't know whether to buy or sell by the Aug. 1 deadline until "end of July."
"I'd love to know sooner," Hoyer said, via The Athletic. "I'd love to rattle off a long winning streak and feel like, OK, all these questions are not going to be asked anymore. That would be the hope. Certainly, we're not going to make any decisions early. Listen, we had a really good month, and we had a really bad month. We need to play well. The frustrating thing is that we just haven't been able to rattle off win streaks."
Miami Marlins
The Marlins are competitive, sitting just three games behind Atlanta for the NL East lead and playing compelling baseball as of late.
Overall, Miami again looks like a team that could benefit from trading some of its pitching talent to boost the offense. The Marlins rank 26th in runs scored and 19th in wRC+ through 63 games.
But over the past month, they were third in OPS and seventh in runs scored. There is reason for optimism that the Marlins are turning it around offensively, and an active deadline could give them a boost to an unexpected wild card berth.
San Francisco Giants
Five games out of the division lead is encouraging enough for the Giants' leadership to feel good about this year, despite a disappointing offseason in free agency.
Remember, this team whiffed at Aaron Judge, left Carlos Correa at the altar and watched their ace Carlos Rodón join Judge with the Yankees. While two of those may have been a blessing in disguise, there is still a star power void.
Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recently told MLB Network his plan is to be aggressive at the trade deadline to get San Francisco in the playoffs this year.
They have a legitimate shot working behind the Diamondbacks and Dodgers in their own division, and are just a half-game out of the final Wild Card spot.
Underperforming Big-Spenders
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New York Mets
Stop me if you've heard this one before: The Mets are a bit of a mess.
When they built a $370 million team in the offseason, the goal was likely to not need help to compete in both the division and across the game.
But that is the reality in Queens right now. After 63 games, the Mets sat 8.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East standings with a -19 run differential. The Wild Card field is crowded, too, with the Mets three games out.
Operating with the richest owner in sports, they have simply spent too much money to not continue leaning in until it all improves. The question is, what are they willing to sacrifice?
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are similarly situated to the Mets. They opened the season with a franchise-record $243 million payroll, but find themselves fourth in the division and battling for a Wild Card spot.
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently told The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal that Philly will not be sellers at the deadline.
The shame alone would be unbearable, but they are also coming off a year in which they made the World Series as a Wild Card. They were aggressive enough to sign free agents Trea Turner, Taijaun Walker, and Matt Strahm, and trade for Gregory Soto. Now wouldn't be the time to get passive.
San Diego Padres
This is really hard to call because of all the fantasy trades you might envision for the Padres happened last year.
They traded for Josh Hader. They traded for Josh Bell and Juan Soto, who before arriving in San Diego, seemed on track to become one of the best hitters the game has seen.
With Fernando Tatis Jr. returning and moving to the outfield and Manny Machado signing an extension, this seemed like a serious ballclub.
It still could be, but even an active deadline would not solve the issue of underperformance from San Diego's biggest stars. But it could solve the big holes at the bottom of the lineup.
Need a Boost to Survive
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Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are a disappointment of a different variety. So many are waiting on them to take the next step and it looks like it will once again be a grind.
As talented as Toronto is—run differential at +30 going into Friday's night's action with three wins over the Astros in a row—they are still on the outside of both the wild card race.
One thing that stands out about the Blue Jays this year, as opposed to last year, is the curious falloff by their former ace Alek Manoah.
He went from Opening Day starter to getting rocked for six runs and recording just one out against the Astros before Toronto optioned him to the Florida Complex League.
It matters when a player that important underperforms to such a large degree, so seeking help for the pitching staff should be a priority for the Blue Jays.
Los Angeles Angels
While it once seemed like the Angels could trade Shohei Ohtani before losing him in free agency, it looks like they are just competitive enough to compete in the AL West.
The Texas Rangers and Astros are ahead, but the Angels have a positive run differential and healthy stars as they approach the midpoint of the season.
The Angels' defense and pitching could use some work, ranking 17th in outs above average, 18th in runs prevented and the eighth-highest xFIP, according to FanGraphs.
Happy to Be Here
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Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates
These are some of the best stories in the game.
Three organizations that just two years ago were on the outside of relevant baseball conversations, all have a chance to reach the postseason.
In Arizona's case, the Diamondbacks could actually win that division. It seems wild considering they sported MLB's worst record in 2021...along with the Orioles.
But it's fair to say the Orioles, Diamondbacks and Pirates are not used to being in this position, apparent contenders with the deadline around the corner.
It will be interesting to see how they handle it. A midseason trade or two would make lofty goals more realistic, if they are into that sort of thing. Although showing some patience and not surrendering players from their robust farm systems may set them up for bigger success down the line.
