UFC on ESPN 45: Kara-France vs. Albazi Odds, Schedule, Predictions
A pivotal flyweight matchup between Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi takes center stage at the UFC Apex Facility in Las Vegas.
Kara-France will attempt to get back on track after coming up short in an interim title fight his last time out. The New Zealander suffered a third-round TKO loss to Brandon Moreno, but the climb back to a title shot starts on Saturday.
The main event represents a big step up for Amir Albazi. He's 4-0 since coming to the UFC but he hasn't won a fight over a ranked opponent and he'll be headlining a card for the first time.
It's a huge opportunity for him to introduce himself to the upper echelon of the weight class.
Here's a look at what the rest of the card looks like along with a preview for the featured bouts on the card.
Fight Card, Schedule and Odds
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Main Card (ESPN/ESPN+, 9 p.m. ET)
- Kai Kara-France (+100) vs. Amir Albazi (-120)
- Alex Caceres (-180) vs. Daniel Pineda (+155)
- Jesse Butler (+200) vs. Jim Miller (-240)
- Victor Altamirano (+150) vs. Tim Elliott (-175)
- Karine Silva (-195) vs. Ketlen Souza (+165)
- Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-120) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+100)
Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET)
- Johnny Munoz (+185) vs. Daniel Santos (-215)
- Andrei Arlovski (+115) vs. Don'Tale Mayes (-135)
- John Castaneda (-130) vs. Muin Gafurov (+110)
- Jamie Mullarkey (-460) vs. Muhammad Naimov (+370)
- Jinh Yu Frey (+110) vs. Elise Reed (-130)
- Da'Mon Blackshear (+130) vs. Luan Lacerda (-150)
- Maxim Grishin (-125) vs. Philipe Lins (+105)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kara-France vs. Albazi
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Kara-France has been put in this spot based on what he was doing before losing to Moreno in the interim title fight. However, it's fair to question whether that run holds up under scrutiny.
Kara-France had a three-fight win streak going with knockout wins over Rogério Bontorin and Cody Garbrandt and a decision win over Askar Askarov. However, Bontorin is no longer with the UFC and hasn't officially won a fight since 2019. Garbrandt is 2-5 in his last seven fights and Askarov asked for his release after the fight with Kara-France to deal with medical issues.
Take away that three-fight heater and Kara-France's credentials start to look a lot like Albazi's.
The Iraqi fighter doesn't have a lot of Octagon time but he's looked impressive every time out. None of his wins are going to earn him recognition by themselves, but he's proven to be a capable submission artist.
That could be the deciding factor. Albazi has nine submission wins while Kara-France has been tapped three times in his career.
Prediction: Albazi via third-round submission
Caceres vs. Pineda
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MMA is a funny sport when it comes to career arcs. Some fighters age gracefully. Some fall off an aging cliff and others seem to actually peak when most fighters are in the twilight of their career.
Alex Caceres has been in that last camp. The soon-to-be 35-year-old has been fighting in the UFC since 2011 but is just now putting on some of his strongest performances. He's 6-1 over his last seven fights with a knockout win over Julian Erosa in his last bout.
This isn't Daniel Pineda's first rodeo either. The 37-year-old made his UFC debut in 2012 but he didn't have the same sticking power as Caceres, making appearances in Legacy, Bellator and PFL before coming back to the Octagon.
Since his return in 2020, he's been a mixed bag of results. A knockout win over Herbert Burns got him off to a good start but then he was knocked out by Cub Swanson and had a No Contest with Andre Fili due to an eye poke.
He did submit Tucker Lutz last time out but this version of Caceres is a step up in competition.
Much like the main event, the submission element could be the deciding factor. Caceres is slick on the ground and Pineda has six submission losses on his record.
Prediction: Caceres via first-round submission
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Miller vs. Butler
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Speaking of late-career resurgences, Jim Miller continues to be a tricky out even at 39 years old with a UFC career that goes back to 2008. Miller just continues to put on solid performances, winning three of his last four fights.
Unfortunately, his bout has been changed three times leading up to this weekend. He was originally scheduled to fight Ľudovít Klein but Klein pulled out of the fight due to illness and was replaced by Jared Gordon. However, Gordon was forced to pull out from the fight when it was revealed he had a concussion from his fight with Bobby Green last month.
Miller will now fight Jesse Butler who will be making his UFC debut at 31 years old. As Mike Bohn of MMA Junkie noted, it's the largest gap in experience in UFC history. No one has more fights than Miller.
Butler has mostly fought at featherweight so he'll be at a size disadvantage against Miller who has fought recently at welterweight.
That kind of size and experience advantage will be tough for Bulter to overcome, especially on short notice.
Prediction: Miller via decision
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