Trey Lance Trade Should Interest Raiders Due to Jimmy Garoppolo's Uncertain Status

Uncertainly at quarterback can be a crippling condition for an NFL franchise.

The Las Vegas Raiders thought they addressed the position when the organization signed Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency, though the spot is far from settled upon the recent revelation of what it took to ink the 31-year-old. Still, the franchise can hedge its bet at the game's most important position by intentionally creating a bit of déjà vu for the veteran.

The Raiders should reunite Trey Lance with his former teammate by trading for the 2021 third overall draft pick. It's not a perfect solution by any means, but Garoppolo's standing as the starter never was, either.

Pro Football Focus' Mike Florio reported that Garoppolo's three-year, $72.8 million deal includes an addendum that boils down to the quarterback not being able to pass a physical because of a previous foot injury and he assumes all of the risk if the injury continues to hamper his career.

Furthermore, the team provided itself with an out. It can release Garoppolo at any time without paying any of his $22.5 million base salary until he passes a team physical.

Currently, the Raiders remain "optimistic" that their veteran quarterback will ready for the regular season, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal's Vincent Bonsignore.

A league source told Bonsignore that "while this is typical language for an injury waiver, it's unusual in a deal the size of Garoppolo's." The source also mentioned that "most high-profile free agents would not sign a deal of this nature, but that Garoppolo 'must not feel it's an issue' considering 'he took all of the risk.'"

AP Photo/John Locher

The Raiders can't feel the same way. It should be considered malpractice by general manager Dave Zeigler and head coach Josh McDaniels to simply assume everything will work out in the team's favor. It very well may.

However, optimism without preparation is a potential fool's errand, especially in a division that features fellow quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, who is now playing under the supervision of Sean Payton.

A fully healthy Garoppolo would have trouble cracking the top three among that foursome. Right now, the Raiders don't know exactly which version they'll get this year or if he'll even play at all.

"But everything that's happened since we signed Jimmy, we knew ahead of time," McDaniels said, per ESPN's Paul Gutierrez. "So we had an awareness of all of it. And again, our preference is to not push and rush anybody back at this point in time. Could we? I mean, you could make that decision. It's just, I think the most important time of the year is going to happen when we get to training camp so that we're ready to go and we can do the work we need to do in August."

The coach's comments make the current setup even worse, because the squad's backup options are 37-year-old Brian Hoyer, who has started three games in the last five seasons, and fourth-round rookie Aidan O'Connell, who presents legitimate mobility concerns as a pure pocket passer. A better contingency plan is necessary.

The San Francisco 49ers are a team in a similar situation, though they've done more to address the quarterback position.

Brock Purdy emerged as one of the NFL's best stories during the 2022 campaign, with last year's Mr. Irrelevant emerging as the Niners' franchise quarterback. Unfortunately, the rookie suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow during the NFC Championship Game. But his recovery from Tommy John surgery might not take quite as long as it does for a baseball pitcher.

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"He's doing the same drills all the other quarterbacks are doing, he's just using a towel to throw," head coach Kyle Shanahan said two weeks ago, per The Athletic's Matt Barrow. "But (he's) still doing violent motions, still moving, he's just not doing it with a football. … As long as there's not a setback, we think he'll be there at training camp."

Purdy could start throwing a football again as early as this week. Until then, the 49ers do have Lance and Sam Darnold. The latter signed as a free agent on a one-year, $4.5 million deal. Darnold's presence also provides significant flexibility with his recent starting experience and potential fit in Shanahan's offense, as a quarterback who excels when asked to throw on the move.

A potential Lance trade has been rumored since Purdy's ascension and Darnold's acquisition, though the 23-year-old hasn't minced words about where he wants to be.

"No, not at all. I knew where I wanted to be," Lance responded when asked by reporters about a potential fresh start. "I just want an opportunity to compete. I love it here. I love the coaching staff. I love working with [quarterbacks coach Brian] Griese and [assistant quarterbacks] Klay [Kubiak] and now [offensive passing game specialist] Klint [Kubiak] as well. Love the quarterback room, love the guys in the locker room. No doubt for me, this is absolutely where I want to be."

Lance's response is perfect for the situation in which he's been placed. But he's been a disappointment as a former top-three draft pick because of injury and not being able to secure the starting role. Clearly, the Niners are moving on with Purdy at the helm and Darnold serving as a bridge/quality backup option.

Financially, Purdy's emergence is a boon for the 49ers since their starter won't make more than $1.1 million for the next three seasons. Whereas San Francisco can wait until after June 1, trade Lance, add an extra draft asset or two and save $3.8 million toward the 2023 salary cap.

Despite San Francisco's current setup, Lance should remain an intriguing option for multiple suitors.

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First, the third-year quarterback is still younger than incoming rookies Will Levis and Hendon Hooker. Second, Lance's base salary is under $1 million this season. Finally, significant upside still exists in his game, as former Bleacher Report scout Nate Tice noted prior to the 2021 NFL draft:

"Lance still has room to grow, both literally because of his build and young age but also in terms of consistency and accuracy, as he'll spray the ball when feeling late on a throw or try to gun a ball into contested spaces. Lance is a really fun blend of size (6'4", 224 lbs), intelligence, athleticism and very good arm strength that is only ascending upwards."

The young signal-caller's lack of playing time during his short professional career isn't based on talent. Rather, he entered the league as a relatively inexperienced prospect from an FCS program. Also, the 49ers already had Garoppolo in place and didn't need to rush their recent draft pick.

Unfortunately, Lance suffered a season-ending ankle injury during Week 2 of last season after being named the starter. Purdy then Wally Pipped his way into the lineup after both Lance and Garoppolo dealt with injuries.

The Raiders have an opportunity to trade for a recent top-three draft pick, who's still under his rookie contract and presents significant developmental potential, and acquire him at a discounted price.

Even with a healthy Garoppolo, McDaniels' squad presents limited upside in a dogged division. Considering the uncertainty currently swirling around the organization, specifically at quarterback, a bold move should be taken.

Otherwise, the Raiders are simply setting themselves up for failure without any plan to offset potential pitfalls.

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Brent Sobleski covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @brentsobleski.