PGA Championship 2023: Final Predictions for Top Prize Money
Brooks Koepka surged again on Saturday, shooting four-under for the second straight day to claim sole possession atop the leaderboard for the 2023 PGA Championship entering Sunday.
Not every top golfer fared as well, however, during what turned out to be a tough day of competition. We haven't seen ridiculously low numbers from any of the competitors through the first three days, and Koepka leads with a total score of -6.
It's been a slightly different dynamic than what we saw last month at The Masters, a tournament that Jon Rahm won at -12. Koepka will now try to avoid a repeat of that tournament—he carried a two-stroke lead into the final day and ultimately lost by four strokes.
It's going to be a difficult task for Koepka. While one of three co-leaders after Day 3 slid on Saturday, the other two, Corey Conners and Viktor Hovland, remain hot on Koepka's heels at -5.
Only one golfer can take home the Wanamaker Trophy and the accompanying $3.15 million first-place payout.
Below, you'll find a look at the field heading into Day 4 and a few predictions.
2023 PGA Championship, Final Day
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When: Sunday, May 21
Where: Oak Hill Country Club in Pittsford, New York
TV: CBS
Live Stream: ESPN+, Paramount+
Full Leaderboard: PGAChampionship.com
Prize Payout
1st Place: $3.15 million
2nd Place: $1.89 million
3rd Place: $1.19 million
4th Place: $840,000
5th Place: $700,000
Updated Favorites Entering Sunday
Brooks Koepka 12-10
Viktor Hovland 33-10
Corey Conners 5-1
Scottie Scheffler 19-2
Bryson DeChambeau 12-1
Rory McIlroy 22-1
Justin Rose 25-1
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Day 3 Recap
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Weather has been a factor throughout the tournament, which began on Thursday with a frost delay. Mild rain hung over the course on Saturday, though it seemed to require only minor adjustments instead of significant changes in approach.
"It's just really difficult to keep everything dry, and so it starts with a grip, and then from there, if you get water on the ball or the driver face, the ball can really go anywhere," Jordan Spieth said, per Bob Harig of Sports Illustrated.
While the conditions never turned truly nasty, the rain combined with the precision-demanding Oak Hill course led to a rough outing for some of the top competitors.
Scottie Scheffler, who was the betting favorite heading into Saturday, was one of those. He was +3 on the day. He was tied with Conners and Hoveland before the afternoon but ended the day four strokes off the lead.
Phil Mickelson, who narrowly made the cut, had an even worse outing, finishing +5 for the day and essentially out of the big money at +10 heading into Sunday.
Koepka managed to play well, though, as did Rory McIlroy, who shot -1 Saturday and is five strokes off the lead. While McIlroy is still a relative long shot to win it, it's been a nice turnaround for him after he missed the cut at The Masters and the Players Championship before that.
"Not saying I could be up there with one of my best performances, but when I holed that putt at the last, I looked at the board, and I thought, I can’t believe I’m five back," McIlroy said, per Chuck Culpepper of the Washington Post.
Only seven golfers are under par heading into Day 4, showing how difficult the weekend has been and how thrilling the final stretch is likely to be.
Preview and Final Predictions
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No one will be coasting to a victory on Sunday. The course, which had a redesign wrap in 2019, is too difficult for that.
"I thought it's a spectacular test of golf. It's demanding," Conners said, per Culpepper.
It's going to take a full round of precision and perhaps some good fortune to stay ahead of or push to the front of the pack. The prediction here is that Koepka, who has played exceptionally well over the last two days, gets it done.
Koepka insists that he won't break down like he did last month at Augusta.
"I know what I did," Koepka said, per Doug Ferguson of the Associated Press. "I promise I won't show up like that tomorrow."
Conners has played perhaps the most consistently throughout the weekend, and it would be a shock if he isn't challenging for the lead at the end of Sunday. The same can be said for Hovland, who is still seeking his first win of the 2023 season.
It won't be surprising to see Scheffler jump back into the mix, either. Prolonged bouts of poor golf just haven't been an issue for him recently. Scheffler hasn't finished outside of the top 12 (or tied) since last October.
Bryson DeChambeau (-3) is currently fourth and could easily find a way to push ahead, while Justin Rose (-2) and McIlroy (-1) should be challenging for top-five spots.
Predicted Finish
1. Brooks Koepka
2. Corey Conners
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Viktor Hovland
5. Bryson DeChambeau
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