Predicting Every MLB Team's Win/Loss Record for Week of May 22
The hottest team in Major League Baseball right now are the Houston Astros.
The reigning champs were 17-18 through 35 games, but they've flipped a switch in winning 10 of their last 11. And with three more games against the historically abysmal Oakland A's on tap for the week ahead—not to mention José Altuve making his 2023 debut this past Friday—it's hard to see them cooling off any time soon.
At the other end of the spectrum are the San Diego Padres, but we'll get to them later on in our predicted records for all 30 teams for the next seven days of action on the diamond.
For each division, we'll take a look at who (player or team) has been hot, who has not and one of the biggest things to keep an eye for the week ahead before offering up a W-L prediction for each team. And after discussing each of the six divisions, we'll also highlight our picks for the best pitching matchup on each day of the upcoming week. (Weather permitting, of course.)
Statistics current through the start of play Sunday. Records current through the start of play Monday.
American League East
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Who's Hot: Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
It was barely a week ago that I put together a still-too-early look at each league's top MVP candidates...and was thoroughly yelled at by you lovely readers for having Judge "overrated" at No. 3 in the AL.
In it, I wrote: "It's just about inevitable that there will be some 10-game stretch when he hits seven or more home runs."
But I was wrong.
It was an eight-game stretch in which he hit seven home runs, posting a 1.758 OPS from May 13-20.
Mea culpa.
Coupled with Shohei Ohtani struggling in recent turns through the rotation, the AL MVP race has gotten mighty interesting again.
Who's Not: Toronto Blue Jays
In our "Week of May 15" predictions, we noted that it was a large week for the Blue Jays, getting seven games at home against the Yankees (four) and Orioles (three). 'Twas a golden opportunity to not only surge ahead of those two AL East rivals, but also potentially close the gap on the Rays—who had to deal with the Mets and Brewers this past week. However, rather than getting hot and moving into second place in the AL East, Toronto played its way into the basement of the division with a 1-6 record. No rest for the weary, either, as the Blue Jays have seven road games against division leaders on tap for this week.
What to Watch: The Return of Tyler Glasnow
Including postseason, Glasnow has logged just 11.2 innings for the Rays in the past 23 months, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021 and opening this season on the IL with an oblique strain. But his long-awaited return is imminent—and it couldn't come at a better time for the Rays, who are still trying to figure things out with both Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen out for the year.
Glasnow made his final rehab start on Sunday and figures to take the mound for Tampa Bay either Friday or Saturday against the Dodgers. He'll presumably have a pitch limit with a low threshold, though, so don't expect an immediate gem in what could be a World Series preview.
Schedule/Predictions
Tampa Bay Rays (34-14): 4 vs. TOR, 3 vs. LAD; Projection: 5-2
Baltimore Orioles (31-16): 3 @ NYY, 3 vs. TEX; Projection: 3-3
New York Yankees (29-20): 3 vs. BAL, 3 vs. SDP; Projection: 4-2
Boston Red Sox (26-21): 3 @ LAA, 3 @ ARI; Projection: 2-4
Toronto Blue Jays (25-22): 4 @ TBR, 3 @ MIN; Projection: 2-5
American League Central
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Who's Hot: Josh Naylor, 1B/DH, Cleveland Guardians
At long last, someone is hitting the ball out of the yard for Cleveland.
Aside from Naylor, the only Guardian who entered play Sunday with more than three home runs was José Ramírez with four. And up until 10 days ago, Naylor also had just three round-trippers for what is by far the worst slugging team in the majors.
But Naylor caught fire with home runs in back-to-back-to-back games against the Angels from May 12-14. And then after missing a couple of games with a minor leg injury, he was back on Friday against the Mets for yet another home run on a five-RBI night. He hit .500 and drove in 12 runs during that five-game surge.
Who's Not: Mike Zunino, C, Cleveland Guardians
There's flailing at the plate, and then there's the slump Zunino has been in.
Dating back to May 1, Cleveland's primary catcher has gone 0-for-27 with 21 strikeouts. But from April 12 through May 13, backup catcher Cam Gallagher went 0-for-31 at the dish, so the Guardians didn't exactly have a viable Plan B while watching Zunino whiff repeatedly.
Can't say they didn't know what they were signing up for, though. While Zunino did club 33 home runs in 2021, he batted .183 and struck out in 36 percent of trips to the plate from 2019-22. Even by his standards, though, it has been a particularly brutal month so far.
What to Watch: Two-Start week for Eduardo Rodríguez
Detroit's ace got touched up a bit this week in Wednesday's loss to the Pirates, allowing four earned runs in that one. But Rodríguez still has great marks (2.06 ERA, 0.86 WHIP) after going at least seven scoreless innings in four out of five starts heading into that hiccup.
He has a big opportunity to re-stake his spot in the early AL Cy Young conversation, likely to take the mound Tuesday against the Royals and Sunday against the White Sox. And if he can hurl a pair of gems, it could be a huge week for Detroit against two of the three worst teams in the majors.
For what it's worth, the Tigers have not had a winning record at any point 42 or more games into the season since the end of 2016. They could get there this week.
Schedule/Predictions
Minnesota Twins (25-22): 3 vs. SFG, 3 vs. TOR; Projection: 4-2
Detroit Tigers (20-24): 3 @ KCR, 4 vs. CHW; Projection: 5-2
Cleveland Guardians (20-26): 3 vs. CHW, 3 vs. STL; Projection: 3-3
Chicago White Sox (19-29): 3 @ CLE, 4 @ DET; Projection: 2-5
Kansas City Royals (14-34): 3 vs. DET, 3 vs. WSN; Projection: 3-3
American League West
3 of 7
Who's Hot: Adolis García, OF, Texas Rangers
It's nothing compared to that April 22 game against the A's in which he went 5-for-5 with three home runs, two doubles and eight RBI, but García has been on a heater as of late.
The 2022 All-Star had a three-hit game with a homer against the Angels on May 7, another three-hit game with a homer against the A's on May 14 and then four home runs in the span of three games against Atlanta and Colorado this past Tuesday-Friday.
As a result, García entered play Sunday with 14 home runs—one ahead of both Aaron Judge and Rafael Devers for the American League lead.
Who's Not: Texas' Bullpen
It's a good thing García has been routinely mashing baseballs as of late, because the Texas bullpen cannot be trusted with any lead these days.
From May 3-20, Rangers relievers logged a combined total of 44.2 IP with a 7.25 ERA—by far the worst ERA during that time. And it wasn't just one or two individual implosions skewing the numbers. Eight of the 11 relievers to take the mound produced an ERA of 5.19 or worse.
They blew four saves and took four losses, the most painful of which was Wednesday's game against Atlanta in which García homered twice off Spencer Strider, only for the 'pen to ruin yet another strong start from Nathan Eovaldi.
What to Watch: A 'Carpe Diem' Homestand in Seattle
Not surprisingly, Seattle had a bit of a rough week on the road against quality foes, going a combined 2-4 against Boston and Atlanta.
But this week represents a big chance for the Mariners to storm back into the still-early postseason picture, as they'll have seven games at home against Oakland (four) and Pittsburgh (three).
Not only that, but they'll also get a Luis Castillo start in each of those series.
A seven-game winning streak is possible and, frankly, anything worse than 5-2 would be a huge missed opportunity.
Schedule/Predictions
Texas Rangers (29-17): 3 @ PIT, 3 @ BAL; Projection: 3-3
Houston Astros (27-19): 3 @ MIL, 3 @ OAK; Projection: 5-1
Los Angeles Angels (25-23): 3 vs. BOS, 3 vs. MIA; Projection: 4-2
Seattle Mariners (22-24): 4 vs. OAK, 3 vs. PIT; Projection: 5-2
Oakland Athletics (10-38): 4 @ SEA, 3 vs. HOU; Projection: 1-6
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National League East
4 of 7
Who's Hot: Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
Just so we're clear, the "Who's Hot" section isn't just reserved for sluggers. Guys who hit for average, baserunners, pitchers and entire teams are welcome in this conversation.
But it is kind of hard to ignore a guy who can't stop homering, and in Alonso, we have yet another division in which that's the case.
The Mets first baseman only has 13 hits thus far in May, but seven of those hits have been home runs. He entered Sunday's double-header having homered in four consecutive games, including the walk-off three-run shot in the 10th inning against Tampa Bay Wednesday and a seventh-inning grand slam against the Guardians Friday.
Max Muncy temporarily took the MLB lead in homers, but Alonso has moved back ahead by a two-blast margin.
Who's Not: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have been mighty capricious over the past three-plus weeks.
A four-game winning streak in late April gave way to a six-game losing streak. They responded with five consecutive wins, only to turn around and lose another five in a row.
Worse yet, the starting rotation put quite a strain on the bullpen during that slump. Taijuan Walker didn't even make it out of the first inning Wednesday, and Ranger Suárez was chased after just two innings in Philadelphia's subsequent game. Could be some long-term ramifications there.
The Phillies entered the week in sole possession of second place in the NL East, but now, despite wins Saturday and Sunday, they've got some work to do just to get back into third—with a four-game series in Atlanta coming their way, no less.
What to Watch: Michael Soroka? Maybe?
Atlanta has some wiggle room atop the division, but how long can it tread water with a short-handed rotation while Max Fried and Kyle Wright recover from injury?
Long-time reliever Jesse Chavez made a rare start as the opener of Saturday's game against Seattle, followed by rookie Jared Shuster taking the mound Sunday with a 7.24 ERA in three career appearances.
Notably, Soroka—who hasn't pitched in the Majors since August 3, 2020—looked good Wednesday in his seventh start for Triple-A Gwinnett.
Atlanta hasn't announced anything yet, but with no days off until June 1, he should get the call soon. Maybe it waits until next week's series against Oakland to ease him back into the mix. But if he toed the rubber at home against the Phillies over Memorial Day weekend, let's just say he would do so to a long-waited, raucous ovation.
Schedule/Predictions
Atlanta Braves (29-17): 3 vs. LAD, 4 vs. PHI; Projection: 5-2
New York Mets (25-23): 3 @ CHC, 3 @ COL, Projection: 3-3
Miami Marlins (24-23): 4 @ COL, 3 @ LAA; Projection: 3-4
Philadelphia Phillies (22-24): 3 vs. ARI, 4 @ ATL; Projection: 3-4
Washington Nationals (20-27): 3 vs. SDP, 3 @ KCR; Projection: 2-4
National League Central
5 of 7
Who's Hot: Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Yep. Another slugger. Sorry, not sorry.
Through St. Louis' first 33 games, Arenado looked to be past his prime. He wasn't quite "José Abreu over the hill," mind you. Arenado did at least have a couple of home runs to his credit. But the 32-year-old third baseman entered play on May 6 batting .242/.295/.320, and he was quickly becoming one of the many concerns for the downtrodden, 10-23 Cardinals.
Over the course of his next 13 games, though, the Arenado who finished third in last year's NL MVP vote came back with a vengeance, batting .327 with seven home runs as St. Louis stormed back to within shouting distance in the NL Central.
It wasn't just Arenado, either. From May 6-18, St. Louis hit 29 home runs and stole 15 bases, good for most and second-most in the majors during that window. Starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty also seem to have snapped out of their early-season funks.
Who's Not: Milwaukee Brewers
Going on the road to face the heating-up-fast Cardinals and the hot-since-Opening Day Rays was a tough ask for the Brew Crew, and they could not get anything going on offense against those foes.
The week started out nightmarishly in an 18-1 loss to St. Louis. The Brewers did rally to win the subsequent game 3-2, but Wade Miley left that start in the second inning with a shoulder injury that is expected to sideline him for up to two months. And after that W, they were shut out in back-to-back losses, bringing their offensive output to four runs in four games.
Milwaukee entered the week in sole possession of first place in the NL Central after a three-game sweep of the Royals, but it has fallen back to the pack with what is now a negative run differential for the season.
What to Watch: The Second and Third Starts of Brandon Williamson's Career
Through eight starts this season at Triple-A Louisville, Williamson had a 6.62 ERA. He was walking 5.3 batters per 9.0 inning pitched, though at least that was improvement from last season's atrocious 5.6 mark.
But with 10 pitchers currently on the IL—and none of the healthy ones pitching all that well, either—the Reds decided to give the 25-year-old a shot, calling up the former second-round pick for his first MLB start in Colorado this past Tuesday.
And it went pretty darn well. He didn't get the win because the Reds didn't score until the seventh inning, but Williamson went 5.2 innings, allowing just two hits, two walks and one run. At one point, he had retired 14 consecutive Rockies.
That was good enough to earn him at least one more turn through the rotation. He'll start Monday against the Cardinals and possibly Saturday against the Cubs.
Schedule/Predictions
Milwaukee Brewers (25-21): 3 vs. HOU, 4 vs. SFG; Projection: 3-4
Pittsburgh Pirates (24-20): 3 vs. TEX, 3 @ SEA; Projection: 2-4
St. Louis Cardinals (21-27): 4 @ CIN, 3 @ CLE; Projection: 5-2
Chicago Cubs (20-26): 3 vs. NYM, 3 vs. CIN; Projection: 4-2
Cincinnati Reds (19-27): 4 vs. STL, 3 @ CHC; Projection: 2-5
National League West
6 of 7
Who's Hot: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Traditionally, June is when Gurriel gets hot. He has a career OPS of .962 in June compared to a mark of roughly .720 in March, April and May combined.
But this year, he started early and has been on fire over the past three weeks. From May 3-20, he batted .392 with six home runs and a 1.326 OPS. He got at least one hit in all 13 games started.
Who's Not: San Diego Padres Bats
In a word: Oof.
The Padres started the month in good shape. At the end of play on May 5, they were 18-15, nestled just one game behind the Dodgers in the NL West. But since May 5, they entered play Sunday with the worst record in baseball and now need a telescope to see the Dodgers in the standings.
Yes, the Padres have been even worse than the A's. San Diego went 2-11 while Oakland went 3-11.
The pitching has been rock solid. Through their first 17 games in May, the Padres allowed just 3.29 runs per contest, giving up more than five runs only once—Friday's 6-1 loss to Boston. They just cannot hit the broad side of a barn lately, held to four runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games. And with Manny Machado recently landing on the IL with a fractured hand, they've got their work cut out for them to turn this around.
What to Watch: Dodgers' Postseason Preview?
The Dodgers have won 16 of their last 21 games, surging from a 13-13 disappointment to their usual spot as one of the best teams in baseball.
Still, they entered play Sunday slightly behind Atlanta for the best record in the NL and five games behind Tampa Bay for the best record in the majors.
They'll hit the road with a chance to change that in a hurry, playing three games against the Braves in a potential NLCS preview, followed by three games against the Rays in a potential World Series preview.
But with both Dustin May (elbow) and Julio Urías (hamstring) landing on the IL this week, Los Angeles will be playing with considerably less than a full deck.
Schedule/Predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers (29-19): 3 @ ATL, 3 @ TBR; Projection: 2-4
Arizona Diamondbacks (27-20): 3 @ PHI, 3 vs. BOS; Projection: 3-3
San Francisco Giants (22-24): 3 @ MIN, 3 @ MIL; Projection: 3-4
San Diego Padres (21-26): 3 @ WSN, 3 @ NYY; Projection: 3-3
Colorado Rockies (19-28): 4 vs. MIA, 3 vs. NYM; Projection: 3-4
Pitching Matchups of the Week
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All of these projected pairings are subject to change, but based on current rotations, these are our picks for the best pitching matchups for each day of the upcoming week.
There's always one day loaded with aces, and this week, it's Tuesday. Early Cy Young front-runners Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider highlight a slate that will also feature Corbin Burnes, Eduardo Rodríguez, Nathan Eovaldi and Kodai Senga.
But of the 97 projected pitching matchups for this week, there's no question that Sunday's potential Eury Pérez vs. Shohei Ohtani showdown is the most intriguing.
Set your viewing schedules accordingly. (All times ET.)
Monday: San Francisco Giants (Alex Cobb) at Minnesota Twins (Bailey Ober) [7:40 p.m.]
Tuesday: Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Bradish) at New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole) [7:05 p.m.]
Wednesday: Los Angeles Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin) at Atlanta Braves (Bryce Elder) [7:20 p.m.]
Thursday: Toronto Blue Jays (Alek Manoah) at Tampa Bay Rays (Zach Eflin) [1:10 p.m.]
Friday: Pittsburgh Pirates (Mitch Keller) at Seattle Mariners (George Kirby) [10:10 p.m.]
Saturday: Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler) at Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton) [4:10 p.m.]
Sunday: Miami Marlins (Eury Pérez) at Los Angeles Angels (Shohei Ohtani) [4:07 p.m.]
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