Ranking the Top 10 MLB MVP Candidates in AL and NL
In both the American League and National League, Major League Baseball's 2023 Most Valuable Player "races" are already turning into runaways. But it's still early in the campaign, and plenty of strong candidates can ascend to those thrones.
Throughout this discussion, we will occasionally mention the actual betting odds for these MVP candidates.
However, our rankings are not intended to reflect those lines.
We do agree with Vegas on the clear-cut favorite in each league—kind of hard not to with the way Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuña Jr. have been playing—but Nos. 2-10 in each circuit are much more open to interpretation as preseason expectations become more irrelevant by the day.
As we'll touch on shortly when we get to Paul Goldschmidt's spot on the list, Most Valuable Players don't always come from the most dominant teams. But team success does play a sizable factor. The top nine finishers in last year's NL MVP vote all played for clubs that made the postseason. And among the top seven finishers in the AL MVP vote, the only one who didn't make the postseason was Ohtani.
While we do have some representation from sub-.500 clubs, most of these 20 players are thriving for teams with somewhat realistic postseason aspirations.
Also, after the initial No. 10 guys in each league, don't expect to see any pitchers—except for Ohtani. They rarely place top-five in the MVP vote and almost never win it.
Players who didn't crack the top 10 but who were strongly considered, in alphabetical order: Randy Arozarena, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jonah Heim, Matt Olson, José Ramírez, Luis Robert Jr., Brent Rooker, Will Smith, Dansby Swanson.
The Obligatory Pitchers Who Will Get Votes Without Seriously Contending for MVP
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AL No. 10: Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees (5-0, 2.22 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.8 K/9)
NL No. 10: Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (5-1, 2.36 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 11.6 K/9)
It's extremely rare for a pitcher to be named MVP.
Excluding Shohei Ohtani winning the 2021 AL MVP as the hitting/pitching unicorn he is, it has happened just twice in the past three decades: Clayton Kershaw winning the 2014 NL MVP and Justin Verlander winning the 2011 AL MVP.
But a pitcher getting at least some MVP consideration and finishing in the top 10 in the vote?
That happens just about every year in both leagues.
And with an honorable mention to Detroit's Eduardo Rodriguez in the AL and to Atlanta's Spencer Strider in the NL, the early front-runners for those "token votes," if you will, are Gerrit Cole and Zac Gallen.
Cole got touched up a bit in his past two starts against the insatiable Tampa Bay Rays, but he was incredible through his first seven starts to the tune of a 1.35 ERA, with the Yankees winning all seven of those games. He has been the glue holding together an overpriced, underachieving, injury-riddled squad.
Meanwhile, Gallen has proved that his 1.49 ERA after the All-Star break last season was no fluke. He didn't complete any of the games, but in each of his final four starts of April, the Diamondbacks won in shutout fashion. Gallen has a 0.92 ERA over his last six starts, as well as a mind-boggling K:BB ratio of 54-2 during that time.
Realistic AL MVP Candidates Who Aren't Quite Among the Favorites
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AL No. 9: Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox (.248/.301/.537, 11 HR, 35 RBI)
Devers has perhaps surprisingly never finished top-10 in an MVP vote, but he did get some votes in each of 2019, 2021 and 2022. Presently, he is on pace for career-best marks in both home runs and RBI. (Current bests are 38 HR and 115 RBI.) Got to get that batting average up, though. Every top-nine finisher in each league in last year's MVP vote batted at least .269.
AL No. 8: Marcus Semien, 2B, Texas Rangers (.288/.379/.484, 7 HR, 32 RBI, 31 R, 5 SB)
With the way the Rangers have been playing, someone from Texas has to be a candidate for AL MVP. We would've guessed Corey Seager or Jacob deGrom in the preseason, but the injury bug had other ideas. One could also make cases for Jonah Heim or Adolis García here, but Semien certainly has a history of getting the attention of voters, finishing third in both 2019 and 2021. His OPS isn't quite what it was in either of those campaigns, but he realistically could hit .300 with 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
AL No. 7: Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles (.281/.407/.432, 5 HR, 21 RBI)
As with Semien from the thriving Rangers, we've got to have some representation from the red-hot O's. And while Rutschman's counting stats hardly jump off the page, he does have one of the best on-base percentages in the majors thanks to a league-leading 31 walks. The second-year catcher is also one of the best defensive assets among the players even remotely in the early mix for MVP in either league.
AL No. 6: Yordan Alvarez, LF/DH, Houston Astros (.282/.388/.573, 9 HR, 35 RBI)
Alvarez is well-known for his slugging prowess, but he's also darn good at getting on base even when he isn't casually trotting around them. He's riding a nine-game hitting streak and has reached base in all 32 games played this season. And as of the start of play Saturday, Texas' García is the only player in either league with more RBI (37) than Alvarez's 35. He finished third in last year's AL MVP vote and could be headed for a repeat showing in that range.
Realistic NL MVP Candidates Who Aren't Quite Among the Favorites
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NL No. 9: Luis Arraez, 1B/2B, Miami Marlins (.386/.444/.472, 1 HR, 13 RBI)
Long gone are the days of a light-slugging batting champ winning MVP. In the past 35 years, the only hitter to win MVP with fewer than 15 home runs was Ichiro Suzuki in 2001, who batted .350 with 56 stolen bases. Even with the new bases and pickoff rules, Arraez probably isn't going to sniff 10 stolen bases or 10 home runs. But if he can continue to hover around the fabled .400 mark, it would get, maybe, 62 percent as much daily attention in September as Aaron Judge's quest for 62 home runs last season.
NL No. 8: Bryce Harper, DH, Philadelphia Phillies (.344/.417/.500, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 9 R)
Missing the first 30 games of the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery will inherently make it quite difficult for Harper to win his third MVP title. However, if the Phillies rally from a poor start to the year, it will be easy to almost oversell how valuable Harper is by pointing to his return as the catalyst for their turnaround. And, so far, he is hitting quite well for a guy who didn't even go on a rehab assignment.
NL No. 7: Freddie Freeman, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers (.297/.369/.510, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB)
An unfortunate truth for Freeman is that, in addition to trying to outperform the other stars of the National League, he is competing against his former self for MVP consideration. And for a guy who triple-slashed .308/.400/.541 from 2016 to '22, his current marks are subpar—as is his 162-game pace of just 83 RBI. He traditionally does his best slugging in June and July, though, so we'll see if he heats up a bit when the weather does.
NL No. 6: Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals (.316/.395/.546, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 4 SB)
Could the reigning NL MVP run it back? It's not out of the question, even with the Cardinals currently nowhere near the postseason picture. Both of last year's MVPs' teams won their respective divisions, but neither Shohei Ohtani's Angels nor Bryce Harper's Phillies made the playoffs in 2021. Nor did the Marlins make the postseason when Giancarlo Stanton won MVP in 2017, or the Angels when Mike Trout won in both 2016 and 2019. But it does take more of a Herculean effort to generate MVP buzz if your team stinks, which the Cardinals do. That said, last Sunday's three-homer game against Detroit was a nice step in the right direction for Goldy.
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Each League's Fifth-Best MVP Candidate
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AL No. 5: Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels (.287/.372/.524, 8 HR, 20 RBI)
Trout has tapered off a bit after batting .320 with seven home runs through his first 26 games, but he's putting up solid numbers for an Angels squad that might post a winning record for what would be the first time since 2015.
And goodness knows he always has the attention of MVP voters with three wins and nine top-five finishes.
But, come on. If you're voting for an Angel for AL MVP, you're voting for the one who's putting up nearly identical numbers at the plate (.289/.363/.521, 8 HR, 24 RBI) while also mowing down the competition on the mound.
It was legitimately a tough call at times between teammates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in last year's NL MVP race, but you'd have to be willfully ignorant to put Trout ahead of Ohtani on a ballot right now. Unless Trout catches fire and hits 50 home runs or unless Ohtani gets hurt, the three-time MVP probably isn't finishing top-three this year.
NL No. 5: Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets (.234/.331/.524, 13 HR, 31 RBI)
There is no denying Alonso's ability to mash a baseball. The two-time Home Run Derby champion is leading the majors in round-trippers.
But will this year be any different from 2019 and 2022?
In the former, the Polar Bear led the majors with 53 home runs, winning NL Rookie of the Year in near-unanimous fashion. He only finished seventh in the NL MVP vote, though.
Similarly, he clubbed 40 homers and led all players with 131 RBI last season yet placed eighth in that year's MVP vote.
Voters want to see a more well-rounded player who can hit for average or at least provide some sort of value on defense. Lacking those traits has kept Alonso down in years past, but maybe he gets a little more love this time around.
Each League's Fourth-Best MVP Candidate
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AL No. 4: Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays (.321/.360/.525, 8 HR, 24 RBI)
Just among players on Toronto's roster, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a bigger name (and is having a mighty fine season in his own right), while Matt Chapman—by virtue of his two-time Platinum Glove—has produced more wins above replacement in 2023 (2.4 to 1.6).
But it's feeling like this is the year when people finally come to appreciate how good Bichette has been for a while now.
Bichette was out of control late last season, batting .406 with a 1.105 OPS from September 1 onward. Because of that red-hot finish, he led the AL in hits for a second consecutive year. And he has picked up right where he left off, leading the majors in hits roughly one-fourth of the way through the current campaign.
He has not yet put together a hitting streak of more than six games this season, but he does have a pair of five-hit games among his 14 multi-hit performances.
NL No. 4: Sean Murphy, C, Atlanta Braves (.278/.415/.591, 9 HR, 32 RBI)
It's not anywhere near the divide between teammates the Angels have, but there's little question that Murphy is playing second fiddle to Ronald Acuña Jr. in Atlanta.
However, the former Oakland A's catcher is having an outrageously good first season in his new home.
At the start of play Friday, Murphy was leading the NL in each of RBI, slugging, OPS, OPS+ and HBP. Getting pegged six times isn't anything to brag about, but it was a fifth black mark on the Baseball Reference page of a player who has previously never led the league in any category.
Murphy even got out to a slow start, too, batting .150 with just one extra-base hit through his first seven games. But in his first 25 games after becoming the primary cleanup hitter, he hit .333 and had 162-game paces of 58 home runs and 194 RBI, driving in at least three runs on six occasions.
Each League's Third-Best MVP Candidate
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AL No. 3: Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees (.255/.349/.481, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB)
Judge started out pretty hot with six home runs in his first 18 games. At the time, he was slugging .597, and it looked like we were headed for another summer spent arguing whether Judge or Ohtani was most deserving of AL MVP.
However, he then struggled for a week, missed about two weeks with a hip strain and has yet to rediscover that four-bag swing.
Believe it or not, Judge's last home run* came back on April 19.
Still, this is Judge we're talking about. It's just about inevitable that there will be some 10-game stretch when he hits seven or more home runs. And if it coincides with the Yankees climbing out of the AL East basement, it will be the inescapable storyline that gets him back in the mix to defend his crown.
*A reminder that statistics here are current through the start of play Saturday, but Judge did hit a pair of home runs in Saturday's win over Tampa Bay. Might be the start of one of those inevitable stretches of individual dominance.
NL No. 3: The To-Be-Determined Biggest Star of the San Diego Padres
Is it a complete and utter copout to lump all four of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts together at No. 3?
Yeah, probably.
But if and when the Padres right the ship and comfortably cruise to a playoff spot, in all likelihood, one member of that quartet is going to finish top-three for NL MVP.
Which member, though?
At this point, your guess is as good as mine.
Tatis is arguably playing the best, but he also missed more than 10 percent of the season while serving the end of the performance-enhancing-drug suspension that may keep some voters from legitimately considering him for the award.
Forced to choose just one, Soto is probably the pick. He got out to a rough start, hitting .183 through his first 27 games, but he has been red hot since April 29, getting his OPS up to .885.
In case you're curious how to make this bet and what the line would be, Tatis is +1100 on DraftKings, with Soto at +1600 and Machado and Bogaerts each at +3000. If you put one unit on Tatis, 0.722 units on Soto and 0.406 units on each of Machado and Bogaerts, you would end up with roughly 10.46 units if one of the four wins. Of course, you're risking 2.534 units, so the line you're getting is only +313. Listen, I didn't say it's a good idea.
Each League's Second-Best MVP Candidate
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AL No. 2: Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (.307/.363/.536, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 12 SB)
With Tampa Bay pitchers dropping like flies, there might actually be a good case for sprinkling some action on Shane McClanahan for AL MVP. (He's not even listed on DraftKings, but other sites have him at +15000.)
He's 7-0 with a 1.76 ERA, and he and Zach Eflin are all Tampa Bay has left from its Opening Day rotation. If he stays healthy and the Rays maintain the best record in the majors, McClanahan is going to get a lot of love.
But the star of the show in Tampa has been Franco.
During their 13-0 start to the season, he hit .321 with four home runs and three stolen bases, and he hasn't slowed down much since then.
Franco struggled in the 10 games that they've put him in the cleanup spot, batting .154 with neither a homer nor a steal. But he has been sensational in all the other games in the 2-hole.
NL No. 2: Mookie Betts, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (.248/.352/.489, 8 HR, 22 RBI)
To put it lightly, the numbers aren't there yet. Betts has never finished a season with a batting average as low as it is right now, nor has his whiff rate (19.4 percent) ever been this high. And at his current pace, he'll be lucky to get to 100 runs, 100 RBI or 30 homers.
But Betts has finished top-eight in the MVP vote in six of the past seven seasons, and he is no stranger to slow starts. In fact, at this time last year, he was hitting .246 with just five home runs before going on a 19-game tear in which he batted .400 with 11 home runs and an OPS of 1.423. And over the course of his career, he has been a better hitter in July, August and September than he is in April, May and June.
But the kicker here is that we've already been talking about Betts' defense all year. Because of injuries and ineffectiveness among the injury replacements, this right fielder has played a combined total of nearly 100 innings at second base and shortstop—and has yet to commit a single error at any position.
That won't be forgotten when it's time to debate the importance of various stars. And with the Dodgers surging over the past two weeks, I've got to believe there's a good chance their MVP will be the NL MVP.
The Clear-Cut AL Favorite
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AL No. 1: Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Los Angeles Angels (.289/.363/.521, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 5 SB; 4-1, 2.74 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 12.9 K/9)
Ohtani has been what we like to call "effectively wild" on the mound.
He is leading the majors in both hit batters (seven) and wild pitches (eight) and has the 14th-worst walk rate among qualified pitchers, per FanGraphs. But he's also leading the AL in K/9 and has been the most unhittable pitcher in the majors at a minuscule 4.3 hits per nine.
Gerrit Cole might be the front-runner for AL Cy Young, but Ohtani is either second or third on that list.
And, of course, that's just half the story with Ohtani, who is also easily one of the top candidates for the Silver Slugger award among AL designated hitters.
All eight of Ohtani's home runs have come on days when he wasn't pitching, but my favorite current Ohtani stat factoid is that he is batting 12-for-31 (.387) on days when he does take the mound.
It all led us to wonder a few weeks ago: Who would win if Ohtani faced Ohtani?
He won AL MVP in 2021, and it's only because of Judge's historic campaign last year that this two-way superstar isn't on the fast track to a third consecutive AL MVP trophy.
If he stays healthy for the next five months, Ohtani legitimately could be headed for a $60 million annual salary in free agency.
The Clear-Cut NL Favorite
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NL No. 1: Ronald Acuña Jr., RF, Atlanta Braves (.345/.434/.568, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 34 R, 15 SB)
Before tearing his ACL in July 2021, Acuña was in a three-way race with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Trea Turner for NL MVP. (None of the three ended up winning, though.) He had a .990 OPS and was operating at a 162-game pace of 47 home runs and 34 stolen bases.
With Acuña two years removed from putting up 41 and 37, respectively, nothing about it felt fluky.
He was nowhere near the same player last year, returning to action less than 10 months after the major injury and managing just a .764 OPS for the season.
But the 25-year-old superstar is back and better than ever, gleefully taking advantage of the new rules that encourage thievery on the basepaths.
Were it not for Miami's Luis Arraez, Acuña would be leading the majors in batting average. And were it not for Oakland's Esteury Ruiz, Acuña would also rank No. 1 in stolen bases.
It's plausible he'll end the season atop both leaderboards.
Yet, it's the moonshots that have gotten Acuña trending on social media every few days as of late.
Each of his last five home runs has traveled at least 438 feet. The triple-decker he hit against the Mets on May 1 was some kind of special, but the 470-footer against Boston this past Wednesday was maybe the most mercilessly obliterated baseball since the ones from the show Josh Hamilton put on in the 2008 Home Run Derby.
And, again, we're talking about the guy who might lead the majors in stolen bases.
Mercy.
If he stays healthy, he's running away with NL MVP.
Statistics current through the start of play Saturday and are via Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.
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