Blazers Must Keep the No. 3 Draft Pick to Help Damian Lillard amid NBA Trade Rumors
The Portland Trail Blazers found some good fortune at the 2023 NBA draft lottery.
No, they didn't land the night's ultimate prize—the No. 1 pick and the right to take French super-prospect Victor Wembanyama (the San Antonio Spurs collected that jackpot)—but they did climb from No. 5 to No. 3.
That may not sound like much, but public perception holds that behind Wembanyama, there is another prospect tier featuring guard Scoot Henderson of the G League Ignite and Alabama wing Brandon Miller. Both are high-end prospects, particularly as "consolation prizes" in the Wembanyama sweepstakes.
Of course, with Portland still hoping to construct a contender around 32-year-old Damian Lillard, the Blazers have the chance to shop this pick (and more) to find Lillard additional established help. ESPN's Zach Lowe reported that rival executives expect Portland to explore that option.
Doing so would be a mistake, though. Let's dig into why.
The Blazers' Trade Budget Is Limited
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To be clear, it seems more likely than not the Blazers will explore the option of moving the No. 3 pick. They've been adamant they're much more interested in giving Lillard a chance to compete than they are focusing on the franchise's future.
"We're a team that's trying to win and trying to maximize Damian's timeline," Portland general manager Joe Cronin told Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer. "This was an important night for us."
If the Blazers hit the trade market with the No. 3 pick in hand, though, what can they realistically expect to bring back? They'd almost assuredly have to package it with Anfernee Simons, meaning Portland would be out both a top prospect in this draft and a 23-year-old who just averaged 21.1 points on 44.7/37.7/89.4 shooting.
Is that enough to land Karl-Anthony Towns, Pascal Siakam or Zach LaVine? Are those players even good enough to justify the cost?
Portland could try aiming higher, but it would cost the club more, and there just isn't much else to dangle. The Blazers could offer Shaedon Sharpe, but his strong closing stretch could make them "even queasier" about letting him go, Lowe noted.
Attaching an additional pick is tough, too, since Portland owes a pick to the Chicago Bulls that has lottery protection through 2028. It's possible to adjust that protection, but it would require incentivizing Chicago with an additional asset.
This Roster Could Be Closer Than It Appears
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Admittedly, this isn't the easiest notion to sell, since the Blazers ended the past two seasons tanking to save their pick. That late pulling of the plug distorted the picture of where this team really sits, though.
The Blazers started this past season on a 9-3 sprint. They were a .500 team into February—while adjusting to the addition of Jerami Grant, the acclimation of Sharpe and some injuries to both Lillard and Jusuf Nurkić. That .500 record may not sound like much, but remember, the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers, two of the four teams in the conference finals, finished a combined 10 games over .500 this season.
If Portland brings back Grant (an impending unrestricted free agent), gets Nurkić healthy and sees further development from Simons, that's a strong trio to support Lillard. If Sharpe enjoys a leap year and the No. 3 pick delivers an instant-impact prospect, the Blazers could be in business—at least in terms of being in the playoff mix.
Get to that point with a late-game closer like Lillard, and anything can happen in a seven-game series.
Portland's Best Hope for High-End Talent Is the No. 3 Pick
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It's certainly possible that Simmons and the No. 3 pick (and maybe another sweetener) could bring back someone with name recognition. You know what it isn't delivering, though? A superstar.
That's what Lillard really needs to make a prolonged postseason run. If he's a top-10 player and his best teammate hovers near the back end of the top 30, Portland isn't making a lot of noise in the championship race.
That's why the Blazers should aim for the stars and draft either Henderson or Miller. Henderson is a hyper-athletic guard who can consistently create offensive advantages. Miller is the type of long, athletic, two-way wing every modern team wants. Even if he's not a great creator out of the gate, he'll make a quick impact with his shot-making, feel for the game and active defense.
If Portland snags a rising star, it can still make this work with Lillard. He might hear his clock ticking as he gets deeper into his 30s, but it's not like he's showing any signs of slowing down. His 32.2 points per game this season were a new career high, as was his 64.5 true shooting percentage, per Basketball Reference.
The upside of Lillard, Grant and Nurkić with the Blazers' ascending young talent is high enough to at least give it a look before doing anything dramatic. Should Portland ever learn this isn't working, it could shop some of its young talent to fill in the cracks or even deal Lillard to rebuild around that youth.
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