Preakness Picks 2023: Predictions and Odds for All Horses in the Lineup
The 2023 Preakness is set to go down Saturday, May 20, with 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage attempting to write his name in the history books against a field made up of new challengers in the American Classic.
Those who watched the Derby won't recognize any of the contenders from the Twin Spires. Mage's connections were the only ones who ultimately decided to make the two-week turnaround and run for the Black-Eyed Susans in Baltimore.
The Gustavo Delgado-trained colt will have to outrun a new batch of contenders in the 1 3/16th-mile race. The shorter distance and new entrants will make it a difficult task to overcome, but oddsmakers remain confident in Mage.
Here's a look at the race including post positions, odds and a predicted order of finish for all eight horses.
2023 Preakness Race Info
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Where: Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore
When: Saturday, May 20
Post Time: 6:50 p.m. ET
TV Coverage Start Time: 4:30 p.m.
TV and Live Stream: NBC, NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app and Peacock (pre-race coverage on CNBC from 1-4:30 p.m. ET)
Predicted Order of Finish
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1. (8) First Mission 5-2
2. (3) Mage 8-5
3. (1) National Treasure 4-1
4. (6) Perform 15-1
5. (5) Red Route One 10-1
6. (7) Blazing Sevens 6-1
7. (4) CoffeeWithChris 20-1
8. (2) Chase the Chaos 50-1
Post position in parentheses. Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Preview
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Despite the difficulties and unknowns regarding the race for Mage, he still has a good chance to capture the second leg of the Triple Crown. It's fair to wonder if his late-breaking style and closing speed are ideal for the shorter race. It's also questionable how he stacks up against a field that features a lot of lightly raced colts on more rest.
But those things can work for him as well. With only eight horses in the field, there's a lot less traffic to navigate than the Derby, where Mage was part of an 18-horse field.
Mage is at his best stalking the pace early in the race before making a run at the end, but this is a slow-starting group on paper. There are no clear pace-setters in the field.
All of that points to a race that might run a little slower than most years despite the shorter track.
With that being said, those factors also work for First Mission, the pick here to win the race. The Brad Cox trainee will break from the eighth post. The outside might not be ideal in the Derby, but in a small field like the one at Pimlico, it's not a deal-breaker.
First Mission is coming off a win in the 1 1/16th-mile Lexington Stakes (G3), giving him a graded-stakes win and extra confidence going into this race. His speed was impressive in the run, posting an Equibase speed figure of 103.
Cox has wins in the Kentucky Derby (Mandaloun in 2021) and the Belmont (Essential Quality in 2021). He believes that First Mission has a big future ahead of him and the Preakness is a good test.
"I told somebody yesterday, this is the next step for him, but I do think he is a big horse with a big future," he said, per BloodHorse. "This is part of the process of letting him develop. Hopefully, we can dream a little bit and he could be a horse to take us to a Jim Dandy (G2), a Travers (G1), or even a (Breeders' Cup) Classic (G1), who knows. We'll see where we stand next weekend."
National Treasure is another primary threat to Mage. The Bob Baffert charge finished fourth in the Santa Anita Derby but posted a 101 speed figure while doing so. He had a less-than-ideal trip, getting bumped at the start before making up for lost time and finishing just behind the top three in a talented field.
If there's a colt with longer odds to like, it's Red Route One. Steve Asmussen has trained two Preakness winners (Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009). He's also trained two runners-up in 2021 with Midnight Bourbon and 2022 with Epicenter.
Red Route One has posted a triple-digit speed score, so the speed is there. It's just a question of whether jockey Joel Rosario can get it out of him at the right time.
He's been a closer in previous races, but the event could favor the horse that's willing to claim the early lead and set the pace.
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