PGA Championship 2023: Odds for Sleepers and Favorites at Oak Hill
Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler will dominate the conversation regarding potential 2023 PGA Championship winners.
The top two players in the Official World Golf Ranking have been remarkably consistent on the PGA Tour this season.
Rahm enters Oak Hill Country Club with four victories in 2023, most recently his triumph at the Masters last month.
Scheffler has not finished outside the top 20 in his last 13 starts on the PGA Tour. He is coming off three rounds of 65 or lower at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
No one will be surprised if Rahm or Scheffler is competing for the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday afternoon. They should be two of the most-bet golfers and anchors of daily fantasy lineups.
It seems difficult to make a compelling case for a long shot to win the season's second major because Rahm and Scheffler are playing at such a high level, but a few sleepers could produce a surprise victory because of their strong form this season or previous success at Oak Hill.
Favorite: Jon Rahm (+700)
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It is hard to make a case against Rahm to win his second straight major.
The Spaniard has nine top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour this season, a run that started at the end of October.
Rahm has finished in the top 10 in five of his last nine major starts and landed in the top 15 in three of the last five PGA Championships.
All of those statistics make it easy to predict that the tournament favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook will be in contention for the win Sunday.
Rahm is listed at +175 (bet $100 to win $175) to finish in the top five and at -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to be in the top 10.
Those are the only non-winning props you can find betting value with Rahm. He is -250 to be in the top 20.
A bad, out-of-character few rounds are the only thing that could keep Rahm off the first page of the leaderboard, but that seems unlikely given his phenomenal form.
Rahm should be the betting favorite for not just the PGA Championship but for the other two majors this season as well because he has been so consistent.
Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+750)
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No one will complain if Rahm and Scheffler are locked in a duel Sunday afternoon.
Scheffler started a run of seven top-10 finishes in 11 starts two years ago at the PGA Championship.
The 2022 Masters winner finished inside the top eight in his first two PGA Championship starts. He uncharacteristically missed the cut last year.
Do not expect Scheffler to be on the wrong side of the cut line come Friday. He began his last five stroke-play events with first-round scores in the 60s.
Scheffler shot 32-under in two tournaments between his tie for 10th at the Masters and the PGA Championship.
Oak Hill will play tougher than the courses used for the RBC Heritage and AT&T Byron Nelson, but we should still expect Scheffler to be at least a few strokes under par by the weekend.
Like Rahm, Scheffler only carries betting value for props inside the top 10. He is +180 to finish in the top five and -110 to land a top-10 spot.
Rahm and Scheffler will also be popular anchors for DFS lineups, but if you prefer to not bet the two tournament favorites, some intriguing options lie deeper in the field.
Sleeper: Adam Scott (+7500)
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Adam Scott is one of the few golfers who played Oak Hill the last time it hosted a PGA Championship in 2013.
The 42-year-old Australian was tied for the first-round lead with Jim Furyk and did not leave the top 10 for the rest of the weekend.
Scott shot 70 or better in three of the four rounds in 2013. The event was won by Jason Dufner.
Scott comes into Oak Hill off two straight top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour. He had three rounds in the 60s at the Wells Fargo Championship and at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Scott has a three-year drought for a top-10 major finish, but he did land inside the top 15 at the 2022 U.S. Open and Open Championship.
We saw course history matter at the 2022 U.S. Open when Matthew Fitzpatrick won at the Country Club, the same course where he captured his 2013 U.S. Amateur title.
Scott did not win at Oak Hill 10 years ago, but he is the most notable top-five finisher from that event who's competing in the season's second major.
Jason Day (+2800) is the other golfer who could benefit from course history. He finished in a tie for eighth with Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson and Rory McIlroy in 2013.
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Sleeper: Rickie Fowler (+8000)
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Rickie Fowler could be ready to make another big splash at a major tournament.
The 34-year-old comes into the PGA Championship with four straight top-20 finishes in stroke-play events.
Fowler produced 12 rounds of 72 or lower in his last three starts. He has the consistency and confidence to be a key figure on the weekend at Oak Hill.
Fowler did not achieve the same level of success as Scott in 2013, but he did finish in a tie for 19th in his last major trip to the Rochester, New York, area.
The PGA Championship as a whole has been a strong event for Fowler. His last top-10 major finish occurred in the tournament two years ago, and he has three top-eight finishes since 2014.
Fowler turned in a decent tie for 23rd at the 2022 PGA Championship, which was his only major appearance.
He did not qualify for the Masters despite his strong early-season form, so he may come into Oak Hill with more to prove than other golfers.
If anything, Fowler could be a good DFS lineup piece because he has not missed a cut in his last 11 stroke-play events.
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