How 2023 NBA Draft Lottery Could Impact Star Trade Market
The NBA draft lottery is set for 8:30 ET Tuesday night, and it will revamp the offseason landscape just as it always does. Half the league will go from speculating about where they'll pick in the 2023 draft to knowing where their selections will fall.
Ironically, the certainty of the lottery order triggers a new set of variables. A concrete draft order makes it easer to discuss potential trades, not just among teams picking in the lottery but also across the league. Negotiations for big-name deals no longer operate on hypothetical terms. If the Houston Rockets want a second star to pair with the established (and probably bearded) veteran they sign with their mountain of salary-cap space, they can have much more productive trade conversations if they know whether they're picking second or 10th.
We'll get to Houston and its intriguing offseason in a second, but we should lay out the one thing that won't change with the revelation of the draft lottery order: Nobody is trading the first overall pick.
The Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers, Chicago Bulls, New Orleans Pelicans and Toronto Raptors are probably the hungriest win-now outfits with a shot to select No. 1, and none of those squads would give away Victor Wembanyama to add an established talent or three.
Other than that iron-clad lock, the draft lottery is a great time to let trade speculation run wild.
Houston Rockets Scrap the Rebuild
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If anybody's going to get a little loose with their draft pick, it'll be the Rockets, a rebuilding team that seems very much interested in skipping a few steps. Losing 60-plus games for the second straight year and then targeting James Harden is the definition of a win-now obsession.
Plus, general manager Rafael Stone told reporters: "A lot of teams in our situation are trying to find young talent still. And I actually feel really good about the young talent we have on our roster.
"So depending on who is available in the draft and everything else, trading those picks, trading for future picks, trading those guys for better guys, that's all on the table."
That might just be a canny refusal to broadcast Houston's plans, but let's go with it. Suppose the Rockets land the second pick and instead of adding another teenager, they look for an established player to pair with potential signee Harden.
Would the Raptors turn down that pick in a package for Pascal Siakam and their own first-rounder? What would the Pelicans think about No. 2 as part of a deal for Brandon Ingram?
These are at least conversations that would exceed the "thanks but no thanks" stage of a phone call, and we have to entertain them because the Rockets seem so intent on moving out of the rebuild stage. It's difficult to imagine Houston signing Harden and keeping the rest of the roster intact. Stone can talk all he wants about liking Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr., but pivoting to someone such as Harden can't be a one-off move. The Rockets would need to add more high-end veterans to make sure they don't just jump from 22 to 42 wins. That's the dreaded middle, where nobody wants to live.
If Houston winds up selecting third, fourth or even outside the top five, it would be tougher to put together a package that might pry a real star from another team. Land that No. 2 pick, and the trade options expand significantly.
New Orleans Pelicans Shake Things Up
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A high-lottery long shot, the Pelicans are most likely to receive the 14th pick. But if they make an improbable leap up the ladder, they could use that selection in an exciting "two birds, one stone" trade that sends CJ McCollum's hefty salary and expendable offensive game (assuming Zion Williamson is healthy) to the Washington Wizards for Kristaps Porziņģis.
Obnoxiously complex because it'd have to be structured as a sign-and-trade following KP's near-certain opt-out in the summer, New Orleans could come pretty close to matching whatever Porziņģis earns annually by using McCollum's $35.8 million salary.
The Wizards have needed a point guard since John Wall was darting up and down the floor in a semi-healthy 2017-18 season. Though McCollum is probably closer to a combo guard than a pure 1, Bradley Beal is a good enough secondary playmaker at the 2 to make the match work. McCollum's contract outstrips his production, but that's where the sweetener of the lottery pick comes in.
New Orleans probably shouldn't swing a deal if its selection is inside the top four, but it's hard to deny how well Porziņģis would address its needs. No, he's not Myles Turner, whom we're forever obligated to mention as the perfect floor-stretching, shot-blocking big the Pelicans should target. But KP actually put up a better year than Turner in 2022-23 and, if healthy, has far more offensive dynamism to offer.
Williamson would have maximum room to rumble with Porziņģis clearing the lane, and the Pelicans could feature a defensive upgrade (Dyson Daniels, anyone?) or a cheaper spot-up shooter at the 1 in place of McCollum.
Dallas Mavericks Onboard a Third Star
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Re-signing Kyrie Irving is a high priority for the Mavericks, risky as it is, because of the asset waste that'd result if he were to get away in free agency. Even with Irving back in the fold, though, the Mavs need to add more overall depth and defense to the rotation because we saw in the playoffs how difficult it was for them to make the Irving-Luka Dončić pairing work against high-end competition.
Oh wait, no we didn't. Dallas missed the postseason entirely.
Clearly, the Mavericks need a massive amount of win-now help to make sure another playoff absence doesn't trigger an increasingly realistic and catastrophic Dončić trade request.
Dallas needs multiple upgrades to its starting five—defensive stars who can age along the same timeline as Dončić while providing shooting, length and athleticism. Maybe if the Mavericks luck out and jump to second or third in the draft, they could hit redial and connect with the Brooklyn Nets, from whom they acquired Irving this season.
Would the No. 2 pick, Jaden Hardy, Josh Green and a 2027 first-rounder be enough to land Mikal Bridges, Nic Claxton or both? Brooklyn would be selling extremely high on Bridges, who blossomed as an on-ball scorer after coming over from the Phoenix Suns in the Kevin Durant trade, and the extra future pick would further replenish the draft capital it surrendered in the process of building one of the great failed superteams of this era.
Dallas has ample salary filler in the form of Tim Hardaway Jr., Davis Bertans and Reggie Bullock, so the money wouldn't be an issue. This might hinge on whether the Nets believe Bridges is more likely to be a No. 1 option on a good team than the G League Ignite's Scoot Henderson, Alabama's Brandon Miller or Overtime Elite's Amen Thompson.
Hardy and Green would be much more than throw-ins, and that 2027 pick would be a worthwhile bet on Dallas' downside potential—never unwise with Irving involved.
Another Dallas Defensive Upgrade
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Walker Kessler put up one of the best defensive seasons we've seen from a first-year player in a long time. Though almost nobody got behind his Rookie of the Year case, there was statistical support for it. He comfortably led all rookies in value over replacement player and estimated plus/minus.
Still, even those who believed he should have won Rookie of the Year have to concede his position and offensive limitations mean he's not a cornerstone. That's why the Mavs might be able to get him from the Utah Jazz for an on-ball first option (whom Dallas doesn't need) such as Henderson or Miller. They'd have to land the second or third pick in the lottery, which is unlikely but not impossible.
The Mavericks might even be able to coax an additional pick from the Jazz with Kessler in this hypothetical, depending on where Utah's pick falls. Kessler and No. 12 or No. 13 for Henderson or Miller is at least worth a discussion, particularly since the Jazz don't have much in the way of promising backcourt talent.
With Dallas, Kessler could anchor a defense that was adrift last year. Plus, his limited offensive skill would matter less with Dončić spoon-feeding him lobs and dump-off passes for dunks.
The Mavericks would still need a capable wing defender or two to make sure Kessler doesn't spend every minute on the floor putting out fires, but his presence would stabilize the interior defense with little help. Any extra support could get Dallas into top-10 territory on D—more than good enough if the offense delivers as expected.
Chicago Bulls Luck Out
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The Chicago Bulls have an 8.5 percent chance of keeping their top-four-protected first-round pick. It's overwhelmingly likely they'll send it to the Orlando Magic as part of the ill-fated 2021 Nikola Vučević trade, but in the event of extreme lottery luck, the Bulls could open up a slew of trade possibilities.
The trick is figuring out which kind of exchange—build-up or tear-down—their good fortune could trigger.
If the Bulls want to fashion a new core around the No. 2 selection, they could look to deal Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, consider a sign-and-trade that sends out Vucević for younger pieces and even think about moving on from Alex Caruso. It's not ridiculous to imagine Chicago heading into next season with a horde of newly acquired draft picks, relatively clean books and an intention to spend a couple of years bottoming out. The Oklahoma City Thunder have one of the brightest futures in the league, and the first step toward getting there was trading Russell Westbrook and Paul George.
The Bulls could do worse than following that blueprint, with LaVine and DeRozan as the outgoing vets.
The flip side: Chicago uses the second, third or fourth pick to add veteran talent. An offer starting with that selection, Patrick Williams and salary filler would intrigue a lot of teams looking to unload costly or duplicative stars. The Golden State Warriors might listen to inquiries for Draymond Green (player option), and maybe the Raptors would consider a blue-chip pick to be more valuable than O.G. Anunoby.
Who knows what adding DeRozan to the package might net.
Could the Los Angeles Clippers make George available? What about the Atlanta Hawks' Trae Young?
Considering the talent on the roster and the potential to pivot aggressively in two totally different directions, the Bulls might be the team we should be rooting for to upend the lottery by climbing into the top four...unless you're a Magic fan, of course.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
