Mets' $350M High-Risk, High-Reward Roster Needs Big Changes After Disastrous Start

If what's happening with the New York Mets is any indication, $350 million can buy many stars but not much security.

With their 101-win romp through 2022 still visible in the rearview, things are already beginning to look catastrophic for the Mets in 2023. Losses in 12 of 15 games have dropped them to 17-19 and pushed them eight games behind Atlanta in the National League East.

Oh, and now one of their three-time Cy Young Award winners is hurt.

Just when Justin Verlander finally came off the injured list, Max Scherzer's body is breaking down. He was already pitching through discomfort under his right scapula, and then neck spasms forced the Mets to scratch him from his scheduled start on Tuesday.

This is presumably not what Mets owner Steve Cohen was hoping for during a George Steinbrenner-esque offseason spree in which he ran his club's payroll into record-setting territory in the $350 million range—and that's not even counting inevitable luxury-tax penalties that will push the final bill over $400 million.

The obligatory bright side is that there's still time for the Mets to turn things around. But with the club's playoff odds at FanGraphs having already fallen from 77.1 to 56.6 percent since Opening Day, the object of the game going forward must be not patience, but urgency.

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Some of This Is Bad Roster Construction

Any dissection of what's gone wrong with the Mets must begin with a starting rotation that's been...well, what's a stronger word than "putrid?"

You know a rotation is going bad when a 5.44 ERA is one of its less incriminating statistics. Worse is the minus-0.1 wins above replacement compiled by Mets starters. That puts them ahead of only the Oakland Athletics, who you may have heard are kinda bad.

The Mets were, of course, supposed to have one of the best rotations in Major League Baseball. Maybe even the best if Scherzer and Verlander did their thing to lead the strong supporting trio of José Quintana, Carlos Carrasco and Japanese sensation Kodai Senga.

Yet it's not surprising that Senga is the only one who's made all of his scheduled starts so far. He's still "only" 30, whereas the others are 34 and older. Had the Mets gotten so much as 24 starts out of each of them in 2023, that would have been a historic first.

If anything, it's a bigger surprise that the Mets offense's scoring is down about a half a run per game from 2022, wherein it ranked third among NL teams, to 2023, wherein it ranks 11th.

At the same time, though, the organization's mistake was in thinking that last year's production was sustainable.

Of the six clubs that scored over 4.7 runs per game last season, the Mets lagged behind the rest with their 171 home runs and 62 stolen bases. They had a long-form offense that thrived on productive outs and hits with runners in scoring position. A house of cards if there ever was one, so go figure that neither have been there in as much abundance in 2023.

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Some of This Is Also Bad Luck

In fairness to the Mets offense, it isn't getting the same returns on hard-hit balls as it did last season. Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte have especially felt the sting of that, so maybe lay off them for having not lived up to $419 million worth of contracts yet.

In other words, Lindor had a point when he said this on Saturday: "I still believe we have one of the best offensive teams out there. We just haven't put it together collectively."

The Mets also could not have anticipated $102 million closer Edwin Díaz tearing his ACL in the World Baseball Classic, which has unsurprisingly had a downstream effect on the club's relief pitching. If David Robertson and Adam Ottavino were working the eighth instead of the ninth, the Mets' ERA in the former wouldn't be so much higher.

And as easy as it is to point out that the Mets' approach to their rotation during the winter has failed, it's harder to outline how they could have done better.

With Jacob deGrom on the IL with yet another elbow issue and Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt both struggling out of the gate, the Mets wouldn't be much better off if they had retained the three of them. Nor would they be any better off if they had signed Carlos Rodón, whose injury history now includes a chronic back ailment.

Taking things even further, Carlos Correa's cold start—a .185/.261/.363 slash line is a yikes—ought to make the Mets relieved he's not standing in Brett Baty's way at third base.

And for all the handwringing about how the Mets needed to sign a designated hitter, Daniel Vogelbach has done just fine there. If he falters, it'll be easier to push him aside for red-hot Triple-A prospect Mark Vientos than it would have been with, say, J.D. Martinez or Justin Turner.

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It's Not Too Early to Be Thinking Trades

Beyond calling up Vientos, other in-house moves the Mets can make to spur things in the right direction include swapping out Marte for Jeff McNeil in the No. 2 hole and recalling Denyi Reyes, who looked good in a scoreless April, to pitch out of the bullpen.

Otherwise, it's hard to count on the club's other flaws suddenly fixing themselves.

Future Hall of Famer though he may be, Scherzer is also a 38-year-old whose fastball velocity and contact rates were sounding alarm bells even before the injury bug nipped him. This, of course, is to say nothing of the sticky stuff question that looms over him.

Carrasco was likewise struggling with velocity and contact before he went on the IL with elbow inflammation. Factoring in that Quintana isn't due back from rib surgery until July, that's three starters who the Mets shouldn't count on for too much going forward.

As to the offense, signing former Yankees All-Star Gary Sánchez is what they refer to on the gridiron as a "desperation heave." The Mets' best hope at catcher remains the possibility of Francisco Álvarez, who homered twice on Tuesday, becoming the next Sánchez.

It's really left field that's most in need of an external upgrade. Mark Canha has gotten the bulk of the reps there and put up just a .654 OPS, and there isn't much in his underlying metrics to redeem him.

Where trade options are concerned, Shohei Ohtani is hardly worth considering while the Los Angeles Angels are contending for a change. As Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported in April, there's a "zero percent chance" of the 2021 American League MVP going anywhere.

As to who could be out there, Jim Bowden of The Athletic isn't wrong to point to Lucas Giolito and Eduardo Rodriguez as ace-caliber starters who could be available. It's also hard to imagine a better solution for the Mets' left field hole than Joc Pederson.

Though the MLB trade deadline is not until Aug. 1, it's not too soon for Mets general manager Billy Eppler to start working the phones. And assuming he hasn't backed off his "time's running out" stance on delivering a World Series championship, Cohen's input must be that there's plenty more where the $350 million came from.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.