Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley: Early Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Aljamain Sterling is still the bantamweight champion after UFC 288.
Sterling was back in action in the main event of the Saturday-night card in Newark, New Jersey, defending his title against former two-division champion Henry Cejudo.
It was a razor-close fight—some fans on social media seemed to score it for the returning former champion—but in the end, it went Sterling's way via split decision.
With his victory over Cejudo, Sterling has now defended the UFC bantamweight belt three times—more than any other fighter in the promotion's history. He will be rewarded for that historic feat with a big fight.
After the UFC 288 main event concluded, the champion was joined in the Octagon by knockout artist Sean O'Malley, the division's No. 2-ranked contender, and perhaps more importantly, its most popular fighter.
It will be the buzziest fight of Sterling's career, and the first title opportunity of O'Malley's – which has felt inevitable since he burst onto the scene with a flashy KO win on Dana White's Contender Series in 2017.
Given the two fighters' differing styles and distinct finishing ability, it could end in a number of ways, too.
Keep scrolling to see how the two bantamweight stars match up on paper.
Striking
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Sean O'Malley's best chance—maybe his only chance—of beating Sterling is on the feet.
Sterling's striking has improved dramatically over recent years. He has a nice jab and some great low kicks. In fact, calf kicks were a crucial part of his UFC 288 win over Cejudo. However, the champion can still be pretty raw in the striking department. He even caught some heat from his corner for throwing wild, looping punches in his fight with Cejudo.
O'Malley is the opposite. While he might not be the best pure boxer at bantamweight—that title could just as easily belong to Petr Yan or Rob Font—he is probably the division's best striker overall, as he backs up his boxing with a well-rounded muay thai attack. His last fight, a split-decision win over Yan, was a great example of his versatility. He cracked the Russian with punches, knees, elbows and head kicks.
O'Malley isn't just versatile. He is also busy and accurate—much more so than Sterling. He lands 7.43 per minute for an accuracy rate of 60 percent. Sterling, on the other hand, lands less than five significant strikes per minute, at a 52 percent clip.
These stats are helpful in breaking down O'Malley and Sterling's striking games, but they are not necessary. All we need to do is look at their knockout rates.
O'Malley has earned 10 of his 16 wins by way of knockout or TKO. Sterling has only finished three people with his striking in 26 fights, and those stoppages came on the mat. That is more an indication that the champion is better at other things than that he is a poor striker, but there's no way around it: In a fight with O'Malley, he's outmatched on the feet. Badly.
Edge: O'Malley
Wrestling
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Just as O'Malley has a clear advantage in the striking department, Sterling is, clearly, the far better wrestler.
The champion has been wrestling since 2004, when he was in high school, and he became a two-time NCAA Division III All-American out of Cortland.
His wrestling background has served him well in the Octagon. While he struggled to take Cejudo down at UFC 288, and struggled to keep him the former Olympic gold medallist on the mat when he got him there, he does not usually have much difficulty grounding his foes.
His takedown accuracy rate is quite poor at 24 percent—that's worse than O'Malley's—but he is persistent enough that it often doesn't matter. In his win over Cejudo, for example, he attempted 15 takedowns to land the four that helped convince the judges he deserved the victory.
It's not just that Sterling is a good wrestler, either. Takedowns have always been a vulnerability for O'Malley. For all his skill on the feet, he typically offers little resistance when his opponents are able to get to his hips. Petr Yan, for example, took O'Malley down six times in their three-round scrap last year—and the Russian is not even a wrestler by trade.
O'Malley's takedown defence is not terrible, but it's not great either, and against a fighter who is as technical, strong and determined as Sterling, that is a cause for concern.
Edge: Sterling
Submissions
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One of the things that makes Sterling such an effective fighter is that he bolsters his wrestling skill with an awesome submission game. If he can get his opponents to the mat—and he usually can—he is able to not only control them, but threaten with a variety of chokes.
The best example of this occurred in 2020, when he dragged dangerous contender Cory Sandhagen to the mat and slept him with a rear-naked choke inside a round. That was the eighth submission win on the BJJ black belt's record, while O'Malley has only won two fights by submission—strangely, his first and third fights.
The stats reflect the difference in their skill levels and their approach to grappling. Sterling attempts 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes in the Octagon; O'Malley only attempts 0.5.
This is not to suggest O'Malley can't submit Sterling, or that the striker will be easy to choke out or lock up in an armbar or something. But the champ is clearly a few steps ahead in this department.
Edge: Sterling
X-Factors
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Sterling's X-Factor: Don't Get Emotional
Cejudo's pre-fight trash talk seemed to get under Sterling's skin a bit and, like most UFC fighters, Cejudo is objectively awful at talking trash. O'Malley is going to talk far more smack in the lead-up to his fight with Sterling, and unlike most of his peers, he is pretty good on the mic.
Sterling is a clever fighter and should be able to keep his head in the game, but if he gets emotional or overeager to punish O'Malley in the Octagon, he risks making mistakes.
You can't make mistakes against a striker like O'Malley, who is fast, accurate and powerful. That's how to end up napping under the Jumbotron.
O'Malley's X-Factor: Rise to the Occasion
O'Malley is often compared to former two-division champion Conor McGregor. It is hard to say whether those comparisons are justified, but one thing they do have in common is an ability to rise to the occasion.
Like McGregor, O'Malley seems to perform better when the lights are brightest, the crowd is loudest and the pressure is the most suffocating. His recent win over Yan was a perfect example of that. That bout was a massive step up in competition, and Yan was the highest-profile opponent O'Malley had fought to date. Yet the American striker stepped up and won a razor-close firefight.
He needs to rise to the occasion again at Sterling, who many already consider a nightmare matchup for him.
Prediction
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It's hard to say whether Sterling is a nightmare matchup for O'Malley or O'Malley is a nightmare matchup for Sterling. Both guys seem to have the skill set to handle the other, which is what makes their matchup so cool.
It's easy to imagine Sterling doing to O'Malley what he did to Sandhagen—a similar fighter—in 2020. But as long as O'Malley's takedown defense is on point, we've got to back him in this one. He might spend a round or two fighting to survive on the mat, but he will have five five-minute rounds to work with. That is plenty of time for him to find his opening. Maybe it will be a knee or an uppercut in response to a Sterling takedown attempt. Maybe it will be a crackling combo from range or an elbow against the cage.
One way or the other, our crystal ball shows Sterling on the canva and O'Malley parading around the cage with his hands in the air. And new.
Prediction: O'Malley by KO, Rd. 2
All stats via UFCStats.com
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