What's Next for Bucks and Giannis After Firing Head Coach Mike Budenholzer?

Mike Budenholzer is out as the head coach of the Milwaukee Bucks, and now the organization is tasked with finding the next on-court pilot for its Giannis Antetokounmpo era.

Just over one week after Milwaukee lost Game 5 of its first-round series against the eighth-seeded Miami Heat, a contest that capped one of the most stunning upsets in NBA history, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski shared the news.

Given the circumstances, it may not be all that surprising. Milwaukee totaled a league-best 58 wins in the regular season, but it could only muster one against Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat.

Yes, the Bucks' two-time MVP missed two of the five games, but they lost each of the last two he played. And he averaged 32.0 points, 15.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists in those contests.

The most obvious scapegoats were Budenholzer and Butler (who averaged 37.6 points and 4.8 assists against Milwaukee), but the Bucks can't fire Jimmy. That put the heat squarely on the coach.

At this point, there's really no use in analyzing that decision, specifically. It's done. Instead, let's look to the future.

The first and most obvious question is who will replace Budenholzer?

He won a championship with the Bucks, and he was Giannis' coach for two MVP campaigns. Milwaukee's winning percentage during Budenholzer's five seasons there wasn't just first. It was nearly six percentage points ahead of the tied-for-second-place Philadelphia 76ers and Denver Nuggets.

Whoever replaces him has big shoes to fill.

The organization could look in-house at current assistant Charles Lee, who's reportedly a candidate for the Detroit Pistons' vacancy, but that almost feels like a "run it back" move. Lee would surely do some things differently, but he's been with Budenholzer since their days with the Atlanta Hawks. There's probably some philosophical overlap, and it doesn't make sense to fire the current head coach without looking for a significant shake-up.

Another candidate could be Miami Heat assistant Chris Quinn (also a potential target of the Pistons), who was just part of the process of eliminating the Bucks.

Quinn has been with Miami and Erik Spoelstra since 2014 and could bring a taste of the famous toughness and team-first mentality that fosters #HeatCulture.

The most obvious match, though, may be someone else who recently hopped on the coaching carousel: former Toronto Raptors head coach Nick Nurse.

He won a title with the Raptors in 2019, but star Kawhi Leonard left that offseason, and Toronto is a middle-of-the-road 13th in winning percentage in the post-Kawhi era. After going an even 41-41 and missing the postseason in 2022-23, the Raptors let him go.

Some of those problems may not be as pronounced in Milwaukee. The Bucks are more at the "win at all costs" portion of the timeline than the "develop young reserves" portion.

And the play style that struggled to connect with the Raptors may be exactly what's needed for Giannis and the Bucks.

Toronto was about as committed as anyone to positionless basketball prior to the acquisition of Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline, but it didn't have personnel as well-suited for it as Milwaukee.

Jrue Holiday is far more portable than Fred VanVleet on defense. Giannis would be like the Super Saiyan version of Pascal Siakam's small-ball 5. If Khris Middleton rediscovers his All-Star form after an injury-riddled campaign, he clearly fits the mold too. And Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen can be decent gap-fillers around the other three.

All five are under contract next season.

Of course, that may presuppose a future in which the Bucks don't re-sign Brook Lopez. But even if they bring him back, having a coach who's more willing to pivot to versatile, switch-all-over-the-floor, attack-from-anywhere lineups with Giannis at the 5 could help (especially in the postseason, when versatility often trumps size).

Lopez, an unrestricted free agent, isn't the only offseason question mark either. Milwaukee is going to start the offseason over the salary cap, so barring sign-and-trades, free agency might not offer much help. The top priorities may be bringing back Lopez and other incumbents like Joe Ingles and Jae Crowder, both of which would fit the positionless mold.

The front office could get aggressive and look to shop Holiday or Middleton, but Milwaukee was plus-10.6 points per 100 possessions when those two shared the floor with Giannis. The trio is plus-11.6 since the start of the 2020-21 season, Jrue's first with the team.

And the dramatic overhaul already happened when the Bucks fired Budenholzer. In terms of roster construction, they probably need more wings. But generally, they have solid players who fit pretty well with Giannis.

Ultimately, he remains the key.

And while Antetokounmpo had another dominant, stat-stuffing regular season, he quietly had perhaps his worst campaign as a shooter since 2015-16.

Thanks to his dominance around the rim, he still had an above-average effective field-goal percentage, but he tumbled to 64.5 percent from the line and was flat-out bad from almost every shooting zone outside the paint.

NBA.com/stats

If that continues into next season, teams will welcome jumpers from the two-time MVP and feel more comfortable packing the paint against his drives.

Having shooters helps with that. And while Milwaukee was fourth in threes per 100 possessions in the regular season, it still finished a middle-of-the-road 13th in points per 100 possessions.

In the absence of a dramatic mid-career shooting improvement for Giannis (which isn't out of the question), Milwaukee's next coach might have to find some creative ways to get him easier looks around the rim.

They shouldn't want to take the ball out of his hands too much, but Antetokounmpo was tied for 31st in total possessions used as a pick-and-roll roll man this season. That could go up a bit. A few more easy dumpoffs to him in the dunker's spot wouldn't hurt either.

If a handful of those plays replaced a few post-ups and shoulder charges into multiple defenders, the Bucks offense would likely open up a bit.

That, in addition to the culture and defensive mindset already introduced by Budenholzer, would make another first-round meltdown a lot less likely in 2024.