9 Early Predictions for the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline
It's only May, but the 2023 MLB trade deadline (August 1) is just around the corner. And with the legitimate contenders starting to separate themselves from the pretenders, a line is beginning to form in the sand between the trade block's buyers and sellers.
We entered the season with Bryan Reynolds and Ian Happ among the top high-profile players who could be on the move. However, both of those outfielders signed contract extensions in April, so could we be headed for a much less noisy deadline day than usual?
That largely depends on the Shohei Ohtani situation.
If the Angels do trade him, it might break the internet. But if they don't make Ohtani available to the masses, who actually is the biggest name on the move 12 weeks from now?
A lot can and will change between now and then, but we've got some early, high-level predictions of what will transpire this summer.
Rather than specific trade proposals, we're looking more at stuff like "White Sox have a fire sale," "Milwaukee trades for a top pitcher" and "Angels refuse to trade away Ohtani."
Predictions are presented in no particular order. Statistics/records are current through the start of play Tuesday.
Compared to 2021 and 2022, the 2023 Trade Deadline Will Be Quite Quiet
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Over the past two years, we've witnessed an absolute flurry of trade-deadline moves. There were 38 deals struck between August 1 and August 2 last summer, this coming after a 2021 campaign in which there were 40 trades in the final 72 hours before the deadline.
This year, however, the have-nots have not much to offer.
The Oakland A's, Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals pretty well cleaned out what was left in their cupboards last season. We might see the Reds try to move Wil Myers or the Nats part with impending free agents Jeimer Candelario or Carl Edwards Jr., but there's little else of any interest that any of those three teams would be willing to trade away.
Colorado has some intriguing names hitting free agency this offseason—foremost among them C.J. Cron—but the Rockies repeatedly in recent years have shown they might not actually understand how the trade deadline works or how it could help a perpetually rebuilding team.
Detroit would love to get out from under the next four years of Javier Báez's deal, but no one will want that albatross. Kansas City has a few good bullpen arms to offer, but that's about it.
Save for the one we'll mention in the next section, none of the teams bad enough to embrace a fire sale actually have the roster/contract situations necessary to conduct one. That could change if, say, the San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners or St. Louis Cardinals continue to scuffle for the next three months and decide to throw in the towel on this season.
However, right now it's looking like we have the recipe for a quieter trade deadline than usual.
The White Sox Go All-In on the Rebuild
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Remember the 2021 trade deadline?
Sitting some 30 games below .500, the Texas Rangers traded away Joey Gallo, Ian Kennedy, Kyle Gibson, Joely Rodriguez and Hans Crouse in hopes of speeding up an inevitable rebuilding process.
The Cubs and Nationals were having somewhat respectable seasons, just a few games below .500, but they, too, read the writing on the wall and embraced fire sales. Washington parted ways with Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Daniel Hudson, Jon Lester, Brad Hand, Yan Gomes and Josh Harrison. Chicago steered even harder into the rebuild, trading away Joc Pederson, Andrew Chafin, Anthony Rizzo, Ryan Tepera, Javier Báez, Trevor Williams, Kris Bryant, Craig Kimbrel and Jake Marisnick.
Did it work?
Debatable.
Two years later, the Rangers are atop the AL West and the Cubs are looking plenty respectable, but that's much more so because of what they did in the subsequent two years of free agency than because of what they got in those trades. As things currently stand, getting Ezequiel Duran in the Gallo trade was the only particularly impactful acquisition by either team. The Nats actually did the best job in trading for Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz, Mason Thompson and Lane Thomas, but they're still a mess as a whole.
Either way, the White Sox are on the fast track to a similar approach, already woefully out of the postseason picture with a litany of veterans approaching the end of their contracts.
Lucas Giolito (free agent after this season) and Tim Anderson ($14 million club option for 2023; free agent after 2024) are the two big ones Chicago could package as something of a lite version of Scherzer and Turner to get a decent haul of prospects—probably from the Dodgers, who certainly need the help at shortstop.
All told, though, the White Sox have six players hitting free agency (Giolito, Yasmani Grandal, Reynaldo Lopez, Elvis Andrus, Hanser Alberto and Keynan Middleton) and six others with a club/mutual option for next season (Anderson, Lance Lynn, Mike Clevinger, Liam Hendriks, Joe Kelly and Jake Diekman).
Maybe they won't be able to trade away that entire dozen, but it's a reasonable assumption that more than half of them will be playing elsewhere by early August.
The Angels Stubbornly Let it Ride with Shohei Ohtani
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Dating back to mid-June 2022—when the Los Angeles Angels were busy imploding in spectacular fashion—we've collectively put together at least 100, maybe even 1,000 theoretical trade packages for Shohei Ohtani.
By far, the Dodgers have been the most common hypothetical trade partner in recent months, but there also have been many reasonable proposals involving the Mets, the Cubs, the Giants, the Mariners, the Padres, the Red Sox, the Rangers and—of course—the Yankees, as anyone and everyone would love to acquire the two-way superstar.
At this point, however, is it even realistic to think that a team would be willing to offer enough to make the Angels legitimately consider parting with Ohtani?
San Diego willfully gutted its farm system to acquire a superstar at last year's trade deadline, but that was for 2.5 seasons' worth of Juan Soto before he potentially hits free agency, PLUS a two-month rental of Josh Bell, who was hitting .301 at the time.
Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime talent, but for possibly just two months of his services—which would cost his new team roughly $10 million in prorated salary, assuming the trade happens right at the deadline—is any team seriously going to part with multiple top prospects that could help them for at least the next six or seven years before reaching free agency?
And regardless of where it's at in the standings, is Los Angeles seriously going to trade away Ohtani for anything less than a king's ransom?
When he doesn't get traded, sadly, I think we already know how the Angels chapter of Ohtani's career is going to end: a home run on September 29, eight scoreless innings with double-digit strikeouts on September 30 and a multi-HR game on October 1...as the Angels get swept at home by the Oakland A's to finish the season at 73-89.
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Milwaukee Hops into a Time Machine to 2008 with a Big Pitching Acquisition
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With so many key players hitting free agency either this offseason or, particularly, next November, we've been wondering for some time now if the Milwaukee Brewers might embrace a selling mentality at this year's trade deadline.
Because goodness knows they could fetch a pretty penny for 1.5 years' worth of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Willy Adames, Wade Miley, Eric Lauer, Rowdy Tellez and Luke Voit.
But what if instead of trading all those guys away in hopes of eventually being legitimately competitive again, they enhanced their chances of winning it all in 2023 by bringing in one of the top arms on the trade block?
It was 15 years ago that the Brewers—after 25 consecutive years of missing the playoffs—really went for it, trading away supposed can't-miss prospect Matt LaPorta, pitchers Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson and a player to be named later* for a few months of CC Sabathia. And though he got shelled in his only appearance that postseason, at least he finally got them back to the promised land with three complete-game shutouts and a 1.65 ERA over the course of 17 unforgettable starts.
Unless the Angels actually do give up Shohei Ohtani, there's nothing close to a Sabathia-level talent on this year's market. But Milwaukee could get Eduardo Rodriguez from Detroit, Jordan Montgomery or Jack Flaherty if the Cardinals never recover from their slow start or any number of guys from the previously discussed batch of starters the White Sox could be looking to move.
Rodriguez is the intriguing one, because it might be a long-term move. The lefty could opt out of the three years and $49 million left on his contract after this season, or he might choose to play that out for the next few years in Milwaukee. That unknown makes this tricky, but he'd probably love to take his 2.21 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through six starts to a team that actually has any hope of playing into October.
*That PTBNL was Michael Brantley, which worked out pretty darn well for Cleveland.
San Francisco Is—for the Second Successive Year—the Biggest Deadline Domino
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Sitting at 51-51 at the end of July with Carlos Rodón, Joc Pederson, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria, Tommy La Stella and others a few months away from hitting free agency, the San Francisco Giants were a gigantic "Will they be buyers or will they be sellers?" unknown at last year's trade deadline.
In the end, they decided on neither, making a handful of small deals without ever coming close to committing to either mindset.
But maybe this year they'll pick a lane?
On the free agency front, they've got Pederson, Brandon Crawford, Alex Wood and five minor role players hitting unrestricted free agency, as well as a $10 million club option for Alex Cobb with Michael Conforto ($18 million), Sean Manaea ($15 million) and Ross Stripling ($15 million) each holding player options for 2024. If they do decide to sell, they have a bunch of players who would generate a lot of interest on the trade block.
And on the team-success front, well, there hasn't been a ton of that thus far. Despite playing 12 of their first 18 games against the Royals, White Sox, Tigers and Marlins, the Giants have yet to end a single day with a winning record. They're currently 11-17 and are already an afterthought in both the NL West and wild-card conversations.
However, this is not a franchise that admits defeat. Even in 2017 when they had literally the worst record in the majors at the end of July, the only guys they traded away in that entire season were Eduardo Núñez and a minor leaguer (Hunter Cole) who never made it to the big leagues. But perhaps they'll see things differently this summer.
Tampa Bay Makes a Big Splash
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Despite being entrenched in a seven-way cluster of teams fighting for the AL's three wild-card spots, Tampa Bay mailed it in at last year's trade deadline.
The Rays got David Peralta in a move that didn't even make any sense as it was happening, shipped out a couple of minor leaguers to snag Jose Siri in the three-team Baltimore/Houston/Tampa trade involving Trey Mancini and that's about it. They did manage to make it into the postseason as the third wild-card team, but they never felt like a legitimate threat to knock off the Yankees or Astros to reach the World Series.
As things currently stand, though, the Rays are the team to beat in 2023, and they'll make at least one big move ahead of the deadline to try to ensure that remains the case.
Most likely, that move will be for a starting pitcher, as the Rays are still adjusting to life without Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) in the rotation. Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Zach Eflin have held down the fort admirably thus far, and they should be getting Tyler Glasnow back before too much longer. But one more arm would be ideal for the long haul.
Upgrading the Manuel Margot-Jose Siri platoon in center would be nice, too, but best of luck finding an available center fielder worth acquiring. Maybe Washington's Victor Robles, who is at least an asset on defense and a strong baserunner? But that wouldn't be a trade-deadline splash. St. Louis' Tyler O'Neill would be a legitimate splash and might be available.
Maybe a different need arises by late July, but after a rare display of willingness to spend this offseason in bringing in Eflin, look for the Rays to be more aggressive than usual ahead of the deadline.
This Year's Most Coveted Reliever/Closer on the Trade Block Will Be...
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There's always at least one, right?
Last year, Josh Hader, Taylor Rogers, Jorge López and David Robertson each saved a combined total of at least 20 games for two different teams after getting dealt at the deadline. The year before that, Ian Kennedy, Craig Kimbrel and Brad Hand all fit that description.
It's inevitable that multiple contenders will feel the need to improve their bullpen situations, and it's usually inevitable that multiple non-contenders will have at least one pitcher with some saves who is pitching well on either the last or next-to-last year of his contract.
And if MLB's 2023 trade deadline was tomorrow, the bullpen arm every single contender would be calling about is Aroldis Chapman.
He isn't even Kansas City's closer. Scott Barlow is somehow still holding down that gig. But Chapman had a masterful April, giving the Royals 10.1 innings with a 1.74 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and a 16.5 K/9.
Among the 343 pitchers who logged at least 10 innings of work prior to May 1, only Philadelphia's Jose Alvarado (0.55) had a lower FIP than Chapman's 0.58 mark.
2022 was rough for Chapman, but thus far, the 35-year-old is looking an awful lot like the dominant force who was an All-Star every year from 2012-15. And he's doing so on a one-year, $3.75 million contract, making him quite the budget-friendly acquisition that literally any team could afford.
But if I'm Kansas City, I'm not waiting around until late-July to make this move. The Royals should already be calling Atlanta, Arizona, the Dodgers and—on a daily basis—the Cubs to see if anyone with bullpen woes/injuries is willing to strike while the Chapman is hot.
It's a Big Year for Middle Infielders on the Move
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Though we previously said it will be a quieter overall year than usual, we could see some serious movement on the 2B/SS front.
The most noteworthy middle infielder traded last season was, who, Whit Merrifield? And he spent nearly as much time in the outfield as he did at second base.
This year should be more like 2021, in which Trea Turner, Javier Báez, Willy Adames and Adam Frazier all got dealt.
We've already mentioned White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, who will generate a ton of interest if A) he's healthy, and B) Chicago is actually willing to trade the former batting champ.
Cleveland's Amed Rosario is another name almost certain to be on the block. The Guardians locked up Andrés Giménez on a long-term deal in March, and Brayan Rocchio could be ready for the big-league gig in a few months' time (if he isn't already). As such, there's a good chance they'll be looking to flip their impending free-agent shortstop.
There's also Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres, who has been a staple in trade rumors for a year now. With Anthony Volpe almost certainly here to stay and with DJ LeMahieu, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera all among the long list of options to turn double plays alongside Volpe, swapping Torres for a healthy starting pitcher would be an easy decision today.
Throw in Detroit's Jonathan Schoop, Oakland's Tony Kemp and (if it slips out of the playoff picture) Arizona's Nick Ahmed on expiring contracts, and there could be a lot of moving and shaking between second base and shortstop.
The Mariners Get Desperate
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The start of Seattle's season has not gone according to plan, with the Mariners sitting at 12-16 overall with a 3-9 record in one-run games.
But after back-to-back 90-win campaigns and finally getting a taste of postseason action this past October, the Mariners aren't about to just sit back and embrace a return to "normalcy" where all of their games are meaningless by mid-September.
They signed Julio Rodríguez and Luis Castillo to nine-figure, long-term deals in the middle of last season. Over the offseason, they traded for Teoscar Hernández and Kolten Wong—two guys making eight figures this season before hitting free agency.
Even though the $21 million due to Robbie Ray this season is already a sunk cost following his Tommy John surgery, the M's are in it to win it, especially with Jarred Kelenic finally living up to the hype in his third season.
One year removed from turning a 29-39 start into a 61-33 finish, they won't be dissuaded by this sub-par start to the season. How desperate will they get, though?
They need a starter to replace Ray, and Lucas Giolito could fill that void.
With Wong and J.P. Crawford hitting a combined .208 with one home run, at least one of the aforementioned middle infielders would be desirable. Might be a great landing spot for Gleyber Torres for both this season and next.
A DH who can actually hit the ball would be swell, given how little AJ Pollock and every reserve on the roster is accomplishing thus far. Maybe this is where Joey Votto lands if he ever gets healthy?
Lots of options for Seattle, and another spending spree seems way more likely than a fire sale.
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