B/R NBA Staff: Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks Round 2 Series Predictions
In a throwback matchup that most could not have seen coming, the eighth-seeded Miami Heat will play the fifth-seeded New York Knicks in the second round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
These two teams meeting in the postseason has to evoke memories of Jeff Van Gundy clinging to Alonzo Mourning's leg at the bottom of a brawl. It probably has you thinking of Patrick Ewing, Tim Hardaway, Allan Houston and other 90s stars. Even coaches Pat Riley and JVG became a big part of the story.
And even though all of those big names are long gone (though Riley is now in Miami's front office), another chapter in this rivalry feels fitting.
Now, the major players are Jimmy Butler, Jalen Brunson, Bam Adebayo and Julius Randle. And they feel like the right successors.
This will be the sixth playoff series in which these two teams meet. The Heat are 15-14 over the previous matchups, with the 30th game set to tip off on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on ABC.
But before you tune in, Bleacher Report's NBA staff has you covered with predictions on how it will go.
All About Matchups
1 of 5
The Miami Heat and New York Knicks tussling in the playoffs—what is this, the late 1990s?
Renewing this rivalry provides a fun backdrop for this series, particularly when both are coming off eye-opening and awfully quick upsets of higher teams (the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks for Miami, the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers for New York). But postseason series are all about matchups, and that's where this leans (slightly) toward the Knicks.
Does it feel good picking against Jimmy Butler after the masterpiece he put forth in the first round? Not. At. All. Still, with Tyler Herro out (hand) and Julius Randle (ankle) on the mend, New York has, what, four of the top six players in this series? Six of the top eight?
Either way, the Knicks are built to win the numbers game. Their shooters are due for some positive regression from distance (28.2 percent in the first round, 35.4 in the regular season), while Miami's may trend the other way (45 and 34.4, respectively). They have multiple bodies to throw at Playoff Jimmy, and their coach, Tom Thibodeau, won't wait nearly as long to send extra help to whoever draws that daunting assignment.
If the Knicks throw every available kitchen appliance at Butler, the undermanned Heat don't have a lot of counters. If Miami shows that type of attention to Jalen Brunson or a healthy Randle, New York has other scoring options to explore. Add home-court advantage to the mix, and the Knicks should have enough to escape this throwback grind of a series.
Prediction: Knicks in 7
Heat Have the Best Player...Knicks Have the Best Roster
2 of 5
It took exactly one playoff game to see that these Knicks were for real.
After disposing of the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games while holding what was the NBA's eighth-best offense to just 94.2 points per game, New York proved it can defend at a high level. This comes after the Knicks ranked No. 1 in total offense (121.2 rating) after the trade deadline.
Jalen Brunson has proven his worthiness as a No. 1 playoff option, but the real strength of New York is its incredible depth. While Jimmy Butler is the best overall player here, the Knicks probably have six of the top eight overall given that Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo will both miss the series after suffering first-round injuries.
If Butler has a bad night, Miami has no chance of winning the game. If Brunson is off, players like RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Josh Hart or Quentin Grimes are all capable of stepping up, and that's even assuming All-Star forward Julius Randle is limited or misses time with an ankle injury.
Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein are big, physical rebounders and defenders who will challenge everything in the paint and make life tough for Bam Adebayo. Like they did against the Cavs, New York should dominate the offensive glass, leading to lots of extra chances.
New York beat Cleveland convincingly, and that was with the worst three-point shooting (28.2 percent) of any team in the first round.
Assuming this number goes up and Miami's (45.0 percent) comes back down to Earth, the Knicks will take this series in six and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Prediction: Knicks in 6
Are the Heat This Good?
3 of 5
The New York Knicks should beat the Miami Heat, at least on paper, given injuries to Tyler Herro (hand) and Victor Oladipo (knee). But with Milwaukee Bucks on an early vacation, it's time to put some respect on the Heat's name.
The same Miami squad that was 25th overall in regular season offensive rating (112.3 points per 100 possessions via NBA.com) lost two skilled scorers and somehow jumped to second among the 16 postseason teams at 119.0.
Matchups are everything in the playoffs. Were the Heat this good because the Bucks were that bad? Shouldn't the Knicks, who have the best postseason defensive rating of 101.9, be able to shut down Jimmy Butler and his Miami teammates? Or did New York take advantage of a Cleveland Cavaliers team that just wasn't ready for playoff basketball?
The answers will come out over the next two weeks, but the series isn't as cut and dry as some might predict. Go ahead and assume Butler can't carry the Heat against New York's defense, but the same logic left Milwaukee bewildered and despondent after elimination.
This is a Miami team that went to the 2020 NBA Finals, and while injuries should weaken them, that has yet to be the case.
Put Miami down for an Eastern Conference Finals return at the Knicks' expense.
Prediction: Heat in 6
Risky Betting Against Jimmy Butler
4 of 5
First of all, it seems almost impossible that anyone other than Jimmy Butler will be the best player in this series. And when teams are pretty evenly matched, having the best individual player can often be the deciding factor.
Butler averaged an eye-popping 37.6 points, 4.8 assists, 2.4 threes and 1.8 blocks in Miami's stunning first-round upset of the Milwaukee Bucks. And that team finished with a significantly better regular-season defense than the New York Knicks, who probably don't have much of a chance to derail Jimmy's playoff production.
But New York's punishing, possession-dominating offense will wear down the rest of the Heat over the course of a seven-game series.
The Knicks finished 20th in the league in effective field-goal percentage. Yet they were still second in points per 100 possessions because they dominated the offensive glass (they finished second there as well), took care of the ball (they were fifth in turnover percentage) and got to the line (they were 10th in free-throw-attempt rate).
Bam Adebayo is a good, versatile defender, but he's not the kind of old-school behemoth who can really slow New York down in any of the above categories. And Miami's big-man rotation around him prominently features 34-year-old Kevin Love, Cody Zeller (who was on the fringe of even being in the league the last couple years) and 6'5" Caleb Martin.
It feels risky betting against Jimmy right now, but the playoffs are often about physicality, and New York probably checks that box more thoroughly than anyone else still standing. Oh, and a potential Game 7 would be played in Madison Square Garden.
Prediction: Knicks in 7
This Matchup Is Fascinating...
5 of 5
Both the Knicks and Heat are coming off decisive series victories, versus teams they weren't favored against, having thrived in circumstances foreign to them during the regular season.
Put another way: This matchup is fascinating as hell.
Will the Heat continue to shoot a trillion percent on not just threes, but contested threes? Will the Knicks be able to keep varying up the cadence of their offense, with heavy amounts of transition, to counter all the extra attention Jalen Brunson receives from set defenses? Does Jimmy Butler stay in God mode? Will RJ Barrett continue punishing defenses on drives, as he did for the final three games of the first round?
Is this more of a Kevin Love series or a Caleb Martin series? Will Mitchell Robinson keep gobbling up offensive boards either way? Can Gabe Vincent and/or Kyle Lowry hit enough pull-up jumpers against the Knicks' team defense? Is Julius Randle's ankle OK?
The list of inflection points goes on, and on, and onward still. And both Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra and Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau have shown a willingness (thus far) to adapt and adjust.
In the end, I think New York just has more counters with its rotation and style. Even if Miami is able to limit Brunson with blitzes or straight-up coverage from Butler, the Knicks' secondary decision-makers are either due for a performance bump (Randle, Quickley) or not playing too far above their head (Barrett). I am all the way sold on Mitchell Robinson, provider of second-chance opportunities and slayer of opponent rim attempts, as well.
Perhaps more than anything, it feels like the Heat's scorching-hot clip from deep is due for regression. Especially without Tyler Herro or, to a lesser extent, Victor Oladipo. Jimmy Butler can do it all for only so long.
Prediction: Knicks in 6
.jpg?w=600 "Vrabel Seeking Counseling")
.jpg?w=600 "Cardinals May Be Bluffing Pick")
.jpg?w=600 "Former President Crashes Cowboys Presser")
.jpg?w=600 "Latest Trade Buzz for Cowboys, Lions")