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2012 NFL Mock Draft: Overrated Players Who'll Slip out of the First Round

Dan RenfroJan 2, 2012

People do mock drafts for months in advance, and players could move around for a variety of reasons.

Because of character issues, poor workouts or lack of talents, certain players can slip in the draft. Some very good players even drop out of the first round.

I have gone through an entire first round, noting which players could drop out of the first round.

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Note: Picks noted with an asterisk (*) are subject to a coin flip at the NFL Combine. Picks 21-32 are subject to change based on playoff results.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

We can talk about it all we want, but Luck will be the top pick. He's a great talent, and he can do just about anything you could ask from a quarterback. Short of him suffering a serious injury or committing a felony, he will not drop out of the first round.

2. St. Louis Rams (2-14): Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Kalil is the fantastic offensive line prospect, and he is another near sure-thing. Sam Bradford needs some protection, and Kalil will help the Rams make a step in that direction.

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

The Vikings have a lot of talent, but they played pretty terribly this past year. Their biggest issue was defending the pass. With Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford in the division, they need to get the best secondary player available.

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

The Browns need a playmaker, and Blackmon is the best option. He's a freak athlete, and he shouldn't fall out of the top five picks.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

The Bucs defense was pretty terrible this year. There isn't a great defensive tackle, so they'll pick the best defensive player here. Kirkpatrick will help one of the worst pass defenses in the league.

6. Washington Redskins (5-11): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

The Heisman Trophy Winner will probably enter the draft, and the Redskins need a quarterback to figure things out. He's the best option for them.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Here's the first player that could drop out of the first round. In the Capital One Bowl, he made two nice plays, but wasn't able to do much else. When he got frustrated he fought with Nebraska's Alfonzo Dennard.

He's a solid talent, but his immaturity and inability to get open could bring up issues. He's a good talent, but if he doesn't have some good workouts, I see him falling to the beginning of the second round.

8. Carolina Panthers (6-10)*: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

The Panthers defense was awful last year, and they could use the best defensive player. Coples is fifth on Scout's Inc. Top 25, so I see him being picked right here.

9. Miami Dolphins (6-10)*: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma

The Dolphins need a quarterback, and unless they get lucky and RG3 falls to them, they'll settle for Jones, who is a pretty darn good quarterback in his own right.

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Devon Still, DT, Penn State

The Bills were 28th in the NFL against the run last year; they need to grab Still to try and strengthen that defensive line.

11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)*: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

The Chiefs need a better line, and Reiff is the second best prospect for that need. He'll help them out big time.

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)*: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

Ingram is a great defensive end, and he will help the Seahawks strengthen their shaky defense.

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

The Cardinals need a lot, but the offensive line is the best place to start. Martin is the safe pick here.

14. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College

The Cowboys need a better defense, and Kuechly will help them out.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

The Eagles need help at linebacker, and Upshaw is the best one left at this point in the draft.

16. New York Jets (8-8): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Assuming Richardson comes out and slips down here, the Jets will jump at him. He's a great prospect, but other teams have bigger needs. The Jets won't let him fall any further.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (via Oakland Raiders): David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech

The Bengals could use a little more pop on offense, and Wilson fits right in.

18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson

The Chargers need a stronger run defense. However, if they don't get Thompson, he might drop out of the first round.

He's a solid player, but I don't think he's necessarily a first round talent. The Chargers will most likely trade down. However, if they stay here, they will probably pick Thompson. That being said, they would rather grab him later on.

19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Peter Konz, C, Wisonsin

The Bears offensive line is horrible. If they pick Konz, they will be making a good decision for protecting Jay Cutler.

20. Tennessee Titans (8-8): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

Guards aren't usually picked this early, so don't be surprised if DeCastro drops to the second or third round. That being said, the Titans need to run the ball more effectively, and DeCastro would be great for that.

21. Denver Broncos (8-8): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Wright would give Tim Tebow some help deep down the field. He has amazing speed, and he would give the Broncos the vertical threat they so desperately need.

22. New York Giants (9-7): Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State

Burfict will be a solid player in the NFL. However, his character issues could drop him to the second or third round. The Giants don't want to deal with off-field issues, so Burfict may be passed up in the first round.

23. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

With their second pick, the Bengals will probably shore up their secondary, picking the shut-down corner, Dennard.

24. Houston Texans (10-6): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

The Texans may pick Floyd, trying to find a second receiver across from Andre Johnson. Floyd has been good, but there are issues about his character and skills.

Can he get open at the next level? That's the big question right now, and the Texans might not want to risk their pick on him. If they want to strengthen their defense, they will pass on Floyd, and he will fall to the middle of the second round.

25. Detroit Lions (10-6): Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida State

The Lions need offensive line help, and Sanders would do a great job protecting Matthew Stafford.

26. Cleveland Browns (via Atlanta Falcons): Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

Assuming the Browns pick Blackmon, they will go defense here, hoping to get a little better on that side of the ball.

27. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

He's a solid, safe pick for the Steelers.

28. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Kevin Reddick, OLB, North Carolina

The Ravens are trying to get younger on defense, and Reddick would help out.

29. New England Patriots (via New Orleans): Mark Barron, S, Alabama

The Patriots need to fix the defense, and Barron is a great start.

30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers

The 49ers need some athletic receivers, but I don't think Sanu quite fits in. Their performance in the playoffs will directly affect this pick. If Alex Smith doesn't look good, I could see them reaching for Sanu. He would better fit in the third run, if you ask me.

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

The Pats need defense. A linebacker would fit perfectly, especially Jones (if he falls this far).

32. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

The Packers need help on defense, and Cox would be the best player available.

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