Biggest NFL Draft Reaches of the Last 5 Years
There's a word...a powerful word. A word that strikes fear into the heart of even the most grizzled general manager as the NFL Draft nears.
Bust.
However, as bad as it can be for an NFL team to select a player who doesn't pan out, there's a scenario that's even worse. A word even more terrorizing than bust.
Reach.
We're not talking about a player like Travis Frederick. When the Cowboys drafted Frederick 31st overall in 2013, Dallas was roasted. But Jerry Jones had the last laugh when Frederick became the best center in the league.
However, as bad as it is to draft a player like Zach Wilson second overall, that wasn't surprising. Wilson was expected to be good and expected to be a top pick. No, the real killer is when a team selects a player well before most expect him to be taken and he goes on to struggle in the pros.
Still, it happens every year. There are head-scratching picks in every draft, and many of those players go on to disappoint. Each of the past five drafts has featured a reach that NFL teams wish they could have a mulligan on, including three by the same team.
As it turns out, making Mike Mayock a general manager was a reach, too.
2018: Sony Michel
1 of 5
New England Patriots, No. 31 Overall
The 2018 draft will forever be known as the draft in which three of the four quarterbacks that went in the top 10 didn't pan out.
But the thing is, no one batted an eye when the Browns drafted Baker Mayfield first overall. Or when the Jets took Sam Darnold two picks later. Or even when the Cardinals traded up five spots to select Josh Rosen at No. 10.
That last one was an all-time bust. But it's not at all unusual for quarterbacks to be taken early. Running backs are another matter. By 2018, teams had already been fading first-round runners for a while. But beginning with Saquon Barkley at No. 2 overall, three backs were drafted in the first round that year.
Sony Michel was the last of those first-round backs, going 31st overall to the New England Patriots after a standout career at Georgia. It was a pick that Kevin Dillon of Mass Live didn't love.
"Michel is an explosive, fast runner out of the backfield who has been billed as an Alvin Kamara type," he said. However, the Patriots had other needs to address besides running back. New England could have drafted a cornerback, linebacker or quarterback and filled more of a need with this spot. Drafting running backs in the first round is generally not a great value pick."
Partly because of injuries, Michel has been neither fast nor explosive in the NFL, averaging a so-so 4.2 yards per carry. That Alvin Kamara comparison never materialized, either—Michel has 56 reception total in his career. After three years in New England and one with the Rams, Michel spent the 2022 season with the Chargers, collecting all of 36 carries.
The real kicker here? Four picks later, the Cleveland Browns drafted Michel's Georgia teammate, and Nick Chubb has become one of the best backs in the league.
2019: Clelin Ferrell
2 of 5
Oakland Raiders, No. 4 Overall
Heading into the 2019 NFL Draft, it was hardly a secret that the Oakland Raiders needed pass-rushers. The season before, the Raiders had managed just 13 sacks as a team. Khalil Mack, who the Raiders traded away the previous offseason, had 12.5 in 2018 by himself.
That the Raiders used the fourth overall pick on an edge-rusher wasn't surprising. That they used it on Clemson's Clelin Ferrell was, though.
It's not that Ferrell was a bad player—the 6'4", 264-pounder was a high-motor edge-setter who piled up 19.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks at Clemson in 2018. But as Matt Miller wrote for Bleacher Report at the time, while Ferrell was a hard-nosed player with good technique, he wasn't especially explosive.
"Ferrell is one of the more NFL-ready pass-rushers in this class, but he also has less potential athletically than the players ranked ahead of him," Miller said. "Ferrell could be a day one starter at defensive end in a 4-3 scheme, but his lack of elite athletic traits could limit his upside."
Frankly, Miller's second-round grade on Ferrell was overly generous in retrospect. Ferrell at least had a decent rookie year, managing 4.5 sacks. But since then, he has been all but invisible. Over four seasons with the Raiders, Ferrell tallied just 10 sacks. Over his past two seasons with the team, he failed to see the field for half the Raiders defensive snaps.
Both Josh Allen (27.5 sacks in four seasons with the Jaguars) and Brian Burns (38 sacks in four seasons with the Panthers) came off the board after Ferrell.
And this won't be the last time the Raiders make this list.
2020: Damon Arnette
3 of 5
Las Vegas Raiders, No. 19 Overall
If the Clelin Ferrell pick was a head-scratcher, the Damon Arnette pick the following season was just bizarre.
Again, Arnette was a quality player at Ohio State who played both on the boundary and in the slot. But he was almost universally regarded as a Day 2 prospect because of his lack of elite athleticism. It was a selection that was almost universally panned, including by Mike Tanier here at B/R.
"This is a reach. And that's a problem, because the Raiders have been reaching in the secondary for years, which is why they entered the draft with one of the league's weakest, thinnest secondaries," he said.
For his part, then-general manager Mike Mayock defended the pick while speaking to reporters.
"What distinguishes him is No. 1, he can run," Mayock said. "No. 2, he's tough as nails, and when you talk about competitors, he played most of the season with a cast on his arm. He can play inside, he can play outside, he can play left, he can play right. We feel like this is one of the most competitive football players in the entire draft. So, to answer your question, we don't feel at all like it was a reach."
As it turns out, Tanier was right. Arnette struggled mightily in coverage in the NFL, allowing over 78 percent of the passes thrown in his direction to be completed with a passer rating against over 105 in both his NFL seasons.
Then, in November 2021, Arnette was released by the Raiders after a video surfaced of him brandishing a weapon and making death threats.
He hasn't played a snap in the NFL since.
2021: Alex Leatherwood
4 of 5
Las Vegas Raiders, No. 17 Overall
OK, before Raiders Nation heads to Twitter to immolate me, don't kill the messenger.
It's not my fault that Mike Mayock was an abysmal general manager. One would think that after the Ferrell and Arnette fiascos, the Raiders would have adopted a more conservative approach and stopped reaching for players they had become enamored with.
Oh no. They doubled down again.
To be fair, Bleacher Report's Brandon Thorn saw some things to like with the 6'5", 312-pounder, rating him seventh among tackles and as a second-round prospect.
"Leatherwood has the play strength, athletic ability and competitive toughness to develop into a high-end starter but has concerning technique issues in pass protection that need to be addressed first," he said.
Instead, the Raiders made Leatherwood the third tackle drafted, and B/R's Brent Sobleski blasted the selection.
"Two years ago, the organization made the mistake of overvaluing intangible traits and selected Clelin Ferrell with the fourth overall pick," he wrote. "Last year, Las Vegas chose Damon Arnette with the 19th selection due to need. The Raiders are now repeating those mistakes with Leatherwood's selection."
Long story short, Leatherwood has been arguably the worst tackle in the league since that selection. As a rookie, he allowed eight sacks per PFF, committed 14 penalties and was so atrocious in pass protection that he was moved to guard. In 2022, he was waived by the Raiders and claimed by Chicago, where he barely played.
Players like Josh Rosen were massive busts, but it at least made sense at the time as to why they were drafted when they were.
You can't say that about Leatherwood.
2022: Jameson Williams
5 of 5
Detroit Lions, No. 12 Overall
It's hard to call any of the early picks from last year's draft a "reach" just one year later. Many rookies just take some time to acclimate to the NFL, and all it takes is one big season to get things back on track.
Jameson Williams certainly appears to have the ability to post that kind of bounce-back campaign. In his Scouting Report for Williams here at B/R, Nate Tice graded Williams as the No. 3 wideout in his class and a potential difference-maker at the NFL level.
"Overall, Williams will be an immediate weapon for any NFL offense due to his speed and explosiveness and will walk into the league as one of its fastest and most dangerous players," Tice said. "He has more polish to his game that will allow him to do 'true' WR things and will make him more than a one-trick pony, but he will need to continue to refine his technique to have answers against more physical cornerbacks."
When the Lions made Williams the No. 12 pick, they did so with full knowledge that his rookie season would essentially be a wash after he tore his ACL in the College Football Playoff title game. Williams ultimately caught one pass as a rookie, although it was a 41-yard touchdown.
But now Williams' sophomore rebound has hit a sizable snag—he'll miss the first six games of the 2023 campaign while serving a suspension for violating the NFL's gambling policy.
Williams may still become the star the Lions hoped to be drafting, but the time on the sidelines is adding up. It's fair to wonder how different things might look had Chris Olave fallen one more spot last year.
.jpg?w=480 "Falcons Vikings Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Brissett Wants Starter Money")
