Buying or Selling Newest NBA Trade and Offseason Buzz
Last week, we examined the latest buzz around Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, the Toronto Raptors, Chicago Bulls and the future of Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers.
While the NBA playoffs rage on, new summer rumors have emerged, including Patrick Beverley's next contract, Scottie Barnes' availability, free-agent targets for the Houston Rockets and a potential suitor for Lillard should he hit the trade market.
It's time to buy or sell the latest offseason news.
Fred VanVleet, Kristaps Porziņģis and Dillon Brooks Possible FA Targets for Houston
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The Houston Rockets can be the NBA's biggest spender this offseason thanks to a roster full of rookie-scale contracts and over $82 million of dead cap hits coming off their books this summer.
The Rockets are currently projected to have a league-high $64.2 million in cap space this summer, putting them in position to sign multiple impact players.
In a poll conducted by The Athletic's Kelly Iko, some high-ranking scouts around the NBA believe Memphis Grizzlies forward Dillon Brooks, Washington Wizards big man Kristaps Porziņģis and Toronto Raptors guard Fred VanVleet could be among the Rockets' free-agent targets. In terms of positional impact, all three would fit.
Houston finished 29th overall in defense this past season (118.6 rating) so adding a proven wing stopper such as Brooks and a rim protector like Porziņģis would make sense. Both can space the floor and keep driving lanes open for players like Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr.
Meanwhile, after ranking dead last in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.38) and 29th in assist percentage (55.1 percent), bringing in a veteran point guard and proven leader like VanVleet could make a huge impact on these young Rockets.
The problem is convincing all three to leave their current homes.
VanVleet won a championship with the Raptors and has spent his entire seven-year career in Toronto. Porziņģis has revitalized his game with the Wizards (22.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 blocks and a 38.2 percent mark from three in a season-and-a-half) while Brooks is a starter for one of the best young teams in the NBA, the Memphis Grizzlies.
Unless the Rockets are willing to outspend their respective teams, VanVleet, Porziņģis and Brooks don't have much motivation to leave their current situations. While the Rockets should pursue all three, don't expect any of them to head to Houston next season.
Buy or Sell: Buy all three as targets, sell that any of them leave their current teams for Houston.
Patrick Beverley Expecting $13-15 Million Per Year on New Contract
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Chicago Bulls free-agent guard Patrick Beverley is going to get paid this summer. Just ask Patrick Beverley.
"My game hasn't dropped, so I don't think my number that I make this year should drop," the veteran guard said on The Pat Bev Podcast with Rone (12:50 mark). "I made 13 [million dollars], but the money does go up, so my 13 this year would become 15 next year."
While the salary cap is expected to increase from $123.6 million this season to $134 million next year, Beverley's rationale isn't necessarily infallible. He's set to turn 35 in July, and his production this season did decrease relative to years past.
Beverley averaged fewer points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks this past season than he did with the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2021-22. His three-point shooting dipped from 34.3 percent a year ago to 33.5 percent this season, including only 30.9 percent in 22 games with the Bulls.
For the first time in eight seasons, Beverley registered a negative swing rating. The Los Angeles Lakers were 2.0 points per 100 possessions worse with Beverley on the floor compared to when he was on the bench, and the Bulls were 8.0 per 100 worse.
Beverley is still a solid defensive option at the point of attack, but he's losing some of his speed and athleticism. While a contender might offer him the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.2 million, per Shams Charania of The Athletic), that seems like a reach for a player of his age and declining skill set.
Beverley's energy, passion and defense will still attract some teams, but likely not for the amount he wants.
Buy or Sell: Sell. Look for the non-taxpayer mid-level exception at most.
Scottie Barnes Is Raptors' Only Untouchable Player
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The rebuilding of the Toronto Raptors has begun. Nick Nurse is out as head coach, and plenty of player movement may follow, especially with Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr. and Jakob Poeltl all likely to become unrestricted free agents this summer.
Although the Raptors finished only 41-41 and lost in the play-in tournament, they have a considerable amount of talent. Pascal Siakam is a two-time All-NBA selection and former All-Star starter. OG Anunoby is perhaps the best perimeter defender in the league, and Scottie Barnes still possesses a ton of upside despite plateauing a bit during his sophomore season.
Of this group, Barnes may be the only untouchable in trade talks.
"Outside of Scottie Barnes, who is coming off a disappointing follow up to his Rookie of the Year campaign, everybody and everything is on the table as the offseason kicks into high gear ahead of the draft in late June and free agency at the beginning of July," Josh Lewenburg of TSN wrote.
Barnes, 21, averaged 15.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.1 steals and shot 45.6 percent overall this past season. The Raptors were 5.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass.
While Siakam is the team's best player right now, Barnes has the upside to take that crown in a year or two. Reformatting the roster around him, one with better spacing and ball movement, would benefit the 2021-22 Rookie of the Year as well.
As changes come for the Raptors, Barnes indeed seems safe for now.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Rockets 'Very Much in Play' for James Harden
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Rumors about a potential reunion between James Harden and the Houston Rockets continue to persist we draw closer to free agency.
Although the Philadelphia 76ers have already advanced to the Eastern Conference Semifinals, there appears to be no guarantee that Harden will return to the Sixers next season.
"James Harden's future is very unclear in Philadelphia," ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski said on the Woj Pod. "Houston is very much in play for him. And I think a lot may depend on, do they make a run and win and it's easy to pay him long-term, big money? Or he just wants to be back in Houston. Win or lose, he goes. Or it's dependent on the team's success."
Does Harden truly miss living and playing in Houston, or is this all one big leverage play to up his salary in free agency? Would Harden, who turns 34 in August, really leave Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and others to go join a rebuilding Houston team that went 22-60 this year?
"I told [team president] Daryl [Morey] to improve the roster, sign who we needed to sign and give me whatever is left over," Harden told Chris Haynes (then of Yahoo Sports) last July when explaining why he opted out last summer and re-signed for less money. "This is how bad I want to win. I want to compete for a championship. That's all that matters to me at this stage. I'm willing to take less to put us in position to accomplish that."
Going back to the Rockets, a franchise he demanded a trade from just over two years ago, makes no sense from an on-court perspective.
Harden has achieved everything on a personal level, from scoring titles to All-Star games, assist titles and even winning the 2017-18 MVP. The only thing left to chase is a championship, which isn't happening in Houston anytime soon.
This still smells like an attempt to leverage the 76ers into paying him max money this summer and using a team with plenty of cap space to do so. Philly should call his bluff.
Buy or Sell: Sell. While there's been a lot of smoke, Harden isn't leaving a title-worthy team in the 76ers for a rebuilding Rockets squad.
Nets 'Could Be a Suitor' for Damian Lillard
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Teams around the league will closely be monitoring Damian Lillard's status with the Portland Trail Blazers this summer. The organization fell to 13th in the West this past season and looks nowhere close to competing for a championship behind its 32-year-old star.
Should both sides agree to find a new home, one franchise that recently traded away its own All-Stars could be interested, according to HoopsHype's Michael Scotto.
"If Lillard and Portland decide a parting of ways is best for both sides, multiple NBA executives believe the Nets could be a suitor for the All-Star guard but were unsure if Brooklyn could ultimately land him in a trade," Scotto wrote.
The Nets' season recently came to a close following a first-round sweep at the hands of the Philadelphia 76ers. While they have some real building blocks on their patched-together roster following the Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving trades, they lack the star power needed to make a run in the East.
Lillard, a seven-time All-Star, could certainly change that.
Lillard notably sat courtside in Brooklyn for Nets-Sixers Game 3. Afterward, Nets forward Cam Johnson revealed that the superstar guard and Mikal Bridges are close, per The Athletic's Alex Schiffer.
Assuming they want to keep players like Bridges, Johnson and Nic Claxton to defend around Lillard, would the Nets have enough pieces to send back to Portland? Ben Simmons' contract could serve as the needed salary filler and has only two years left, although his trade value remains unclear. Cam Thomas has considerable upside as a scorer, and the Nets own future first-round picks from the Sixers, Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks.
It's easy to connect the dots here. A Lillard to Brooklyn deal would make a lot of sense.
Buy or Sell: Buy. If the Blazers make Lillard available, expect the Nets to be among the first teams to call.
