
How AFC Contenders Can Use 2023 NFL Draft to Dethrone Kansas City Chiefs
As the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs serve as the standard-bearer for the NFL. But the franchise has been consistently great since Andy Reid took over as its head coach in 2013.
During that span, the team hasn't experienced one losing season. The run includes nine playoff appearances, seven straight AFC West titles and two Super Bowl victories.
The rest of the conference must find ways to gain ground through the 2023 NFL draft.
Typically, significant turnover exists among actual contenders from year-to-year. For example, four of the AFC playoff teams from the 2021 campaign fell out of the hunt with other squads taking their place just a year later. The Chiefs have been the constant, though.
In this case, teams capable of returning to the postseason can use the draft as a vehicle to drive further success.
As such, last season's other six AFC playoff participants can look at the opportunities in front of them to try to topple a Chiefs squad that features the best player/quarterback in all of football (Patrick Mahomes), the greatest receiving tight end in NFL history (Travis Kelce), a yearly candidate for NFL Defensive Player of the Year (Chris Jones) and a slam-dunk Hall of Fame head coach.
Unsurprisingly, how a quarterback is set up for success rules this conversation.
Buffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills' best approach to reaching a Super Bowl for the first time since Jim Kelly was under center in 1993 is to make life easier on quarterback Josh Allen.
The 6'5", 237-pound Allen has unmatched physical tools, with one of the best pure arms in the league, excellent mobility and the mentality to place his team on his shoulders.
"It's not like he's playing in a system like in Buffalo where the Bills are relying on Josh Allen sitting back and just chucking the ball all over the field, where it's like, 'Good Lord, how are you making those throws?'" an anonymous coach told The Athletic's Bruce Feldman when comparing Brock Purdy's emergence with the San Francisco 49ers to other quarterbacks around the league.
But Allen doesn't need to be Superman for the Bills to be successful. The 26-year-old signal-caller understands he can't continue down the same path.
"I know this sounds crazy, but I'm getting older," Allen told reporters Tuesday. "It's like, 'I can't continue to do this.' I know when I'm using my youth, I feel like I can, but over the course of my career, I'm going to have to learn to adapt and change."
Instead of the quarterback making herculean throws and trying to truck defenders when he runs, he can let others take the brunt of the action.
Buffalo owns six draft picks in this year's class, including the 27th overall selection. The team needs to concentrate on the offensive supporting cast. Wide receiver, running back and another interior offensive lineman should be a priority.
A suspect wide receiver class actually works in the Bills' favor because a plethora of undersized targets can step in immediately and serve as talent upgrades at slot receiver. Boston College's Zay Flowers (5'9", 182 lbs); USC's Jordan Addison (5'11", 173 lbs); North Carolina's Josh Downs (5'9", 171 lbs); and Cincinnati's Tyler Scott (5'10", 177 lbs) are excellent options to replace Cole Beasley.
Cincinnati Bengals
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Much like the Bills, the play of the Cincinnati Bengals' quarterback, Joe Burrow, determines how far the team can go. Similarly, upgrading a few areas of the roster could significantly help the signal-caller's effectiveness.
Proper protection is the starting point, since it's often been a problem since Burrow entered the league as the No. 1 overall pick in 2020. He's been sacked 124 times during the regular season. Only Russell Wilson (135) has been brought to the ground more often during that stretch.
To be fair, the Bengals tried to rectify the situation. Last offseason, the front office recalibrated its offensive front by signing Ted Karras, Alex Cappa and La'el Collins in free agency. The team also drafted Cordell Volson in the fourth round, and the rookie turned out to be a Week 1 starter.
But the group still experienced its share of struggles. The unit finished 28th overall in Pro Football Focus' final offensive line rankings. Collins in particular was a disappointment before suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 16.
A surprising free-agent acquisition of Orlando Brown Jr. this offseason made it look like the Bengals would finally have a competent front five, with Jonah Williams expected to move from left to right tackle.
::record scratch::
Williams almost immediately requested a trade because the front office "didn't communicate" with the incumbent left tackle before planning to sign Brown and "didn't tell him ahead of time they were thinking of moving him to right tackle," according to the Cincinnati Enquirer's Kelsey Conway.
With one of Cincinnati's options disgruntled and another coming off a serious knee injury, right tackle remains an issue.
The 28th overall pick is probably too far down the board to land Tennessee's Darnell Wright, the class' top right tackle prospect. But Ohio State's Dawand Jones, Oklahoma's Anton Harrison and possibly even North Dakota State's Cody Mauch could come into play.
Los Angeles Chargers
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A pattern is starting to develop, because the Los Angeles Chargers are another squad with a promising young quarterback in need of a little help.
Really, this approach is a byproduct of Patrick Mahomes' greatness. The Chargers endure this problem twice per year since they're in the same division as the Chiefs.
Los Angeles does have weapons. After all, the unit finished ninth overall in total offense last season. However, there are a couple of situations that need to be addressed.
Most importantly, the team has to find some type of compromise with running back Austin Ekeler, who requested a trade.
In regard to the draft, speed should be the theme. While Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are an excellent duo when healthy and on the field together, they're not considered burners by any stretch of the imagination.
The Chargers need extra juice to fully take advantage of Justin Herbert's skill set as a passer.
Last season, Herbert ranked top-five in deep passing attempts, according to PlayerProfiler. Yet the 25-year-old quarterback tied for 24th with an average of 6.8 yards per pass attempt. A disconnect exists between those two points.
Even without Tyreek Hill, whom the Chiefs traded to the Miami Dolphins before last season, Mahomes finished second overall in the same category and actually improved over the previous year's average (8.1 to 7.4, respectively).
Jalen Guyton's re-signing helps. The undrafted free agent, who ran a 4.35-second 40-yard dash at North Texas' pro day in 2019, returns after tearing an ACL last season. During the 2021 campaign, Guyton caught 31 passes for 448 yards and three touchdowns.
Another true vertical threat can unlock the Chargers offense. A first-round investment in a wide receiver isn't necessarily needed. Cincinnati's Tyler Scott, Michigan State's Jayden Reed, Tennessee's Cedric Tillman and Wake Forest's A.T. Perry are excellent options with a knack for going deep.
Baltimore Ravens
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The Baltimore Ravens are in a different situation because uncertainty still exists at quarterback with the contractual drama surrounding Lamar Jackson.
Although Jackson's public spat with the organization will still likely lead him to playing for the Ravens next season, the team must do what's necessary to make its franchise quarterback happy.
The process already began on two fronts.
First, Greg Roman stepped down as offensive coordinator after the 2022 campaign. He did help devise a historic running game with Jackson as its centerpiece. At the same time, his passing tactics failed to meet NFL standards.
As a result, the Ravens hired Todd Monken. According to Draft Sharks' Jared Smola, Monken averaged a plus-1.8 percent pass rate over expected during his four seasons as a coordinator with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, Roman's Baltimore offenses averaged a minus-5.5 percent pass rate over expected.
From there, the Ravens added more talent at wide receiver. The organization made a splash when it signed Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year, $15 million free-agent deal. OBJ immediately walks into the building as the Ravens' WR1, even though he missed all of last season while recovering from an ACL tear.
Rashod Bateman, whom the Ravens selected in the first round of the 2021 draft, is also coming back from season-ending foot surgery.
If healthy, Beckham and Bateman are a solid start to a new-look passing offense. But the Ravens need more.
As owner of this year's 22nd overall pick, Baltimore will likely stand pat and select whom they deem the best talent available. The Ravens are renowned for getting good draft value. But another wide receiver must come sooner rather than later.
If TCU's Quentin Johnston slides, he's an ideal X-receiver. Boston College's Zay Flowers is a high-octane threat. USC's Jordan Addison knows how to separate. Tennessee's Jalin Hyatt can take the top off a defense. These are four options in the first round alone.
Jacksonville Jaguars
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Instead of trying to build a better cockpit for their starting quarterback, the Jacksonville Jaguars need to do a better job of slowing down opposing passers. They finished among the bottom five last season in pass defense. They haven't ranked among the top half of the league in that category for the last three campaigns.
The organization used resources over the previous three offseasons—either through free agency or the draft—to bring in Rashaan Melvin, Tramaine Brock, C.J. Henderson, Shaquil Griffin, Sidney Jones, Tyson Campbell, Darious Williams, Montaric Brown and Gregory Junior to play cornerback.
Most of those additions are no longer with the team, while Junior and Brown were sixth- and seventh-round picks last year, respectively.
In order for the Jaguars to become legitimate Super Bowl contenders, they'll need to get some stops, since quarterback Trevor Lawrence and his offense look like an ascending group.
Depending on the board, Jacksonville should be looking for a starting corner with this year's 24th overall pick or in Day 2.
Before last season, defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell had worked alongside current Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles since 2012. Thus, an aggressive scheme is in the coach's DNA.
"Again, it goes back to attacking, affecting the quarterback," Caldwell told reporters at last year's introductory press conference. "So when you affect the quarterback and speed his process up, that enables you to get a chance to break on a ball here and get a pick or break on a ball and knock it down or get a ball tipped up in the air and be able to get a turnover that way."
Maryland's Deonte Banks, Kansas State's Julius Brents and Georgia's Kelee Ringo are bigger and more physical options to reroute receivers off the line of scrimmage and disrupt the timing of a quick passing game. Mississippi State's Emmanuel Forbes and Utah's Clark Phillips III are ball hawks. Maryland's Jakorian Bennett gets his hands on a lot of passes too.
Miami Dolphins
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One thought should ring through the mind of Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier every time he's about to make a decision during the NFL draft, and it revolves around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
"I considered [retirement] for a time, having sat down with my family, having sat down with my wife and having those kind of conversations," the 25-year-old told reporters Wednesday, "but it will be hard for me to walk away from this game with how old I am."
The 2020 fifth overall draft pick suffered at least two and possibly three significant concussions last season and missed five games (including playoffs) as a result. His health is of the utmost importance both on and off the field.
Thus, Tagovailoa's surrounding cast comes under scrutiny. Unlike the other teams on this list, the Dolphins don't have a first-round selection to address potential problems areas.
Obviously, protection is of the utmost importance, and offensive tackle is possibly a significant issue with Austin Jackson—who's been a first-round disappointment—projected as the starting right tackle and Terron Armstead on the left side. The soon-to-be 32-year-old Armstead has never started a full regular-season slate.
With the 51st overall pick, Old Dominion's Nick Saldiveri or Alabama's Tyler Steen could come in and protect the lefty's blind side.
If the Dolphins aren't comfortable with the available tackle prospects once they're finally on the board or even a little later in the process, a stronger ground attack will take added pressure off Tagovailoa.
Raheem Mostert led the way last season with 891 rushing yards as Miami finished among the bottom 10 in yards on the ground. Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Myles Gaskin are serviceable options, but none of them are featured runners.
UCLA's Zach Charbonnet, Ole Miss' Zach Evans, Texas A&M's Devon Achane, Tulane's Tyjae Spears and Texas' Roschon Johnson are strong Day 2 options.
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