NFL Draft 2023: Reviewing Latest 1st-Round Expert Mocks with 1 Week Remaining
Just one week remains before the 2023 NFL draft kicks off.
Do you know which prospect your team will be selecting yet?
Look, there is no way to know for sure until the picks are set in stone, but you can at least start to form educated guesses by studying multiple mock drafts and identifying trends.
That's our aim here as we look for common links among recent expert mocks from The Ringer's Danny Kelly, NFL.com's Peter Schrager and ESPN's combo of Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay, who alternated picks in their mock.
Bryce Young Locked in at No. 1?
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All experts involved see the draft starting the exact same way: with the Carolina Panthers pouncing on Alabama quarterback Bryce Young.
As Kelly noted, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud seemed like the initial target when Carolina traded up to No. 1, but "the winds have shifted considerably over the past few weeks."
If Young had a bit more size (5'10", 204 lbs), you wonder if he would have been the favorite all along. His last two seasons at Alabama were simply spectacular. He completed 65.9 percent of his passes while throwing for 8,200 yards with 79 touchdowns against only 12 interceptions. He even added seven rushing scores.
Schrager likened Young "more...to a point guard than a quarterback." Kelly praised Young's "high-end processing skills, accuracy and poise." Kiper wrote simply, "Young has superstar potential."
What About the Other Quarterbacks?
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While the only agreement about this quarterback crop among these experts is having Young at the top, they all project roughly the same outcomes for the top signal-callers—with one major exception.
Once Young comes off the board, all three agree C.J. Stroud will be the next quarterback to go. But where he goes and how he gets there is different for each.
McShay had the most straightforward prediction with Stroud going second to the Houston Texans. The others project a team trading up to get him. For Schrager, it's the Indinapolis Colts trading up to No. 2. For Kelly, it's the Las Vegas Raiders climbing to No. 3.
After Stroud goes, then Florida's Anthony Richardson is up next. Both McShay and Kelly have Richardson going to the Colts at No. 4. Schrager, meanwhile, has the Seattle Seahawks getting Richardson at No. 5.
For Kiper and Kelly, Kentucky's Will Levis is the final quarterback to go in the first round. Kelly predicted the Texans moving up from No. 12 to No. 10 for Levis. Kiper had Levis landing with the Tennessee Titans at No. 11.
Now, for that massive curveball: Schrager mocked Tennessee's Hendon Hooker to the Titans at No. 11 (one pick before the Titans took Levis). Kelly never mentioned Hooker in his first-round mock, while Kiper sent Hooker to Seattle at the No. 37 pick.
Bijan Robinson Breaking the Mold at Running Back?
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Texas running back Bijan Robinson is the best player at his position in this draft. If you find a big board that says otherwise, it's time to find a new analyst.
Being the top running back on the board doesn't have the same cachet that it once did, though. Last year's first round came and went without a running back being taken. Two went in 2021's first round but not until picks 24 (Najee Harris) and 25 (Travis Etienne).
Where Robinson lands might be one of the most compelling things to watch (at least among non-quarterbacks) in next week's first round. As far as these experts are concerned, though, there may not be as much drama with his draft stock as you'd think.
Schrager and McShay both mocked Robinson to the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 10. Kelly went even higher, pairing Robinson with the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8.
"Robinson's arrival creates a trifecta of top-pick skill players for Atlanta, who used last year's top choice on receiver Drake London and the year prior's on tight end Kyle Pitts," Kelly wrote. "With Arthur Smith calling plays, this Falcons team will be appointment TV every Sunday."
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