Nightmare Fantasy Football Landing Spots for Top 2023 NFL Draft Prospects
The 2023 NFL draft starts on April 27, which means that fantasy football drafts aren't too far behind, especially for those who play dynasty formats.
With dynasty rookie drafts often times taking place right after the NFL draft, now is a good time to start thinking about potential landing spots for the notable rookies in this year's class.
When evaluating rookies from a fantasy football perspective, talent is obviously a big part of the equation. But context is important too.
A running back, wide receiver or tight end with a clear path to a role in a dynamic offense can lead to fantasy relevance.
A rookie, even a talented one, in the wrong situation can lose pretty much all fantasy value on the day of the draft.
With several promising fantasy football prospects such as Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jahmyr Gibbs, here's a look at some nightmare situations that would significantly devalue some rookies in this year's class.
RB Zach Charbonnet: Dallas Cowboys
1 of 8
UCLA bruiser Zach Charbonnet comes in at No. 3 in Bleacher Report's running back rankings. There's a considerable gap between him and Bijan Robinson and another gap between him and Jahmyr Gibbs, but he still has a chance to be a relevant fantasy player as a rookie.
The best trait that he has going for him is power and balance. At 6'0", 214 pounds, he has the thick build and strength to be a good between-the-tackles thumper and short-yardage back.
In the right situation, he could be the featured runner who pairs with a receiving back who can handle the third-down role. As Derrik Klassen noted in his B/R scouting report, Charbonnet was not asked to pass-protect at UCLA, so that's an area of his game that could need work.
The situation Charbonnet needs to avoid for 2023 fantasy purposes is the Dallas Cowboys at No. 58.
With Tony Pollard playing on the franchise tag, it would make sense for Dallas to target him as an Ezekiel Elliott replacement. Long term, it might mean a big role, especially if Pollard doesn't re-sign.
In the immediate future, it would mean Charbonnet gets relegated to true backup status. After sharing a lot of touches with Elliott, Pollard is set to be a true No. 1 back. Otherwise, the Cowboys wouldn't be paying him $10.1 million this season.
He'd only be worth a late-round pick in a redraft, and his dynasty value would take a hit based on a cloudy long-term projection.
WR Zay Flowers: New York Giants
2 of 8
The latest Bleacher Report mock draft projects Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers to land with the Los Angeles Chargers with pick No. 21.
That would be an ideal landing spot. Dropping Zay Flowers in an offense with a big physical receiver like Mike Williams and an aging Keenan Allen is a high-impact opportunity for Flowers.
He would have to split time with Allen in the slot, but the Chargers were the second-most pass-happy team in the league last season. Flowers is an electric playmaker with the ball in his hands, and Herbert would be able to maximize those opportunities.
The Daniel Jones-led New York Giants offense is a lot less ideal.
Flowers would immediately be in the conversation as the most talented receiver in the group, but Darius Slayton was the most fantasy-relevant receiver last season and he averaged just 9.9 points per game in PPR scoring.
The rookie would have a hard time exceeding that ceiling. Between Saquon Barkley's volume and a general lack of passing volume—the Giants were 22nd in pass play percentage—the value of being the No. 1 receiver in the offense is questionable.
Flowers' best situation is going to be one that manufactures some touches for him via screens and jet sweeps. The Giants already have a player like that in Wan'Dale Robinson.
Throw in the addition of a tight end in Darren Waller, who is going to command targets, and there just isn't a good path to fantasy relevance for Flowers in New York.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs: Arizona Cardinals
3 of 8
Bijan Robinson is the only running back who feels like a lock to be taken in Round 1, but Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs shouldn't have to wait too long on Day 2 to hear his name being called.
Gibbs is an explosive runner with tremendous potential as a weapon out of the backfield. The 5'9", 199-pounder isn't built like a primary back, but he has elite burst and his 4.36-second 40-yard dash matches what you see with him on film.
He's reminiscent of Alvin Kamara in his ability to turn catches into long gains. B/R scout Derrik Klassen compared him to Dalvin Cook in his scouting report, noting his "lethal one-cut ability to make defenders miss, a trait only made better by his open-field vision and subtle movements to set defenders up for failure."
In other words, Robinson isn't the only back with the potential to be an elite fantasy offense.
Unfortunately, his range could be early second round, which puts him in play for the Arizona Cardinals, who have pick No. 34.
The Cards are a team with a lot of unknowns right now. Kyler Murray will be working his way back from a torn ACL, DeAndre Hopkins has been the subject of trade rumors all season and they'll be breaking in a new coaching staff with Jonathan Gannon taking over for Kliff Kingsbury.
In general, it's a wise strategy to target good offenses in fantasy drafts. The Cardinals aren't shaping up to be one of those offenses in 2023.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
WR Quentin Johnston: Baltimore Ravens
4 of 8
From a football standpoint, the Baltimore Ravens should be looking to draft a wide receiver. Whether Lamar Jackson's contract situation gets resolved or not, they need to add to the room.
Quentin Johnston makes a lot of sense as a target for them. He's a much bigger receiver at 6'3", 208 pounds than a lot of the ones on the Ravens roster right now.
Bleacher Report scout Derrik Klassen sees Johnston as the top receiver in the class and closes out his scouting report with strong praise for the receiver.
"Johnston has the makings of a Pro Bowl receiver, especially if paired with an aggressive quarterback."
Jackson is not a conservative quarterback by any stretch, but he is a unique one. Even with Todd Monken taking over the offense from Greg Roman, the Ravens are still likely to lean on the run.
Under Roman, the Ravens had the third-highest run play percentage. They aren't going to all of a sudden become pass-happy.
So Johnston would be joining a relatively low-volume passing attack that has a high-volume tight end in Mark Andrews and the newly signed Odell Beckham Jr. looking to play out an incentive-laden one-year contract.
That doesn't bode well for Johnston living up to his potential early in his career from a fantasy perspective.
TE Michael Mayer: Jacksonville Jaguars
5 of 8
This is a deep tight end class, but Michael Mayer is the crown jewel from a pure football standpoint. He's the most complete tight end with the blocking chops and receiving ability to come in and contribute right away.
He's the fifth overall prospect on the Bleacher Report big board and easily the top tight end. His overall grade of 8.7 from B/R scout Derrik Klassen is nearly a full point higher than Darnell Washington (7.8).
The Bleacher Report mock draft currently has the tight end going at No. 15 to the Green Bay Packers. That would be a great landing spot as he would dominate the middle of the field and underneath targets in Green Bay's offense.
With Jordan Love presumably taking over at quarterback and Christian Watson the most promising receiver on the team, Mayer would immediately become one of Green Bay's top pass-catchers.
However, there are some mock drafts lately that have the tight end going to Jacksonville with the 24th pick. That would be bad news for his fantasy stock.
For one, Christian Kirk had the seventh-highest red-zone target percentage in the league last season. That cuts into a target share that could be crucial for Mayer's fantasy production.
The Jaguars also signed Evan Engram to the franchise tag, and although he's essentially a big slot receiver, he would still take away reps from Mayer.
Add in the fact that Calvin Ridley is going to come in and could potentially lead the team in targets, and the Jaguars passing game is too crowded for the Notre Dame tight end to have a huge role in year one.
QB Anthony Richardson: Carolina Panthers
6 of 8
If Anthony Richardson ends up being a Week 1 starter, he's going to have value in two-quarterback leagues or even as a borderline starter in one-quarterback formats.
Justin Fields finished as QB6 last season. Jalen Hurts finished as QB9 in his first year as starter for the Eagles in 2021. Neither had good passing numbers, but their rushing totals propelled them into the starter range for fantasy football purposes.
But there should be at least some infrastructure to put up some passing stats. Fields had Darnell Mooney and an emerging Cole Kmet, and the team traded for Chase Claypool in November. Hurts had DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert in his second season.
Whoever gets drafted by the Carolina Panthers is going to be throwing to what's left of Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall Jr., DJ Chark and Hayden Hurst. The Panthers will likely be finding more receivers in the draft, but they don't pick again until No. 39.
Joe Person of The Athletic reported that Richardson is "still in the conversation" for the Panthers, especially if they decide to trade back from the No. 1 pick.
Richardson is arguably the most athletic quarterback prospect ever. His relative athletic score by Kent Lee Platte's formula is the highest of any quarterback prospect since 1987.
But with one of the weakest receiving corps in the league and a young offensive line, Richardson's athletic ability wouldn't even be able to give him fantasy value in Year 1 with Carolina.
RB Bijan Robinson: New England Patriots
7 of 8
NFL.com's Chad Reuter recently submitted Texas running back Bijan Robinson as an ideal pick for the New England Patriots with the No. 14 pick.
If that happens, the groans from fantasy managers should be heard all the way from the draft venue in Kansas City.
Robinson is easily the highest rated running back in this class. The Bleacher Report big board has him slotted in as the No. 4 overall prospect. He's the only running back in the top 31, which is the number of picks in the first round this year.
The former Arizona high school star is exciting from a fantasy perspective because he has a complete toolkit that would allow him to be a true three-down back from the outset of his career. Much like Najee Harris in his first few seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers, he's capable of taking on a huge market share of both targets and carries.
But Bill Belichick doesn't care about your fantasy team and never has when it comes to running back usage.
Rhamondre Stevenson finally took over the backfield after sharing it with Damien Harris. The 2021 fourth-round pick saw 88 targets and 210 rushing attempts and finished as RB12 in points-per-reception formats, making him a low-end RB1.
With Harris off to the Buffalo Bills, Stevenson is on track to continue dominating the touches. If the Pats draft Robinson, it would not only caps his potential, but cause confusion around Stevenson's role too.
QB C.J. Stroud and QB Bryce Young: Tennessee Titans
8 of 8
We're lumping C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young together here. Even though they have different frames, they are going to find their fantasy production in similar ways. Both are athletic, but neither is going to heavily rely on rushing stats to bolster their fantasy value.
Young is a great mover in the pocket, but he uses that to open up throwing windows much more often than tucking the ball and running. One of the biggest knocks on Stroud is his lack of plays from outside of the pocket or when faced with pressure.
So for either of them to become fantasy-relevant options, they will need to go to teams with a solid offensive line and wide receivers who can take advantage of their accuracy.
In that regard, the rumors that the Tennessee Titans are considering trading up from No. 11 to draft a quarterback should be concerning for fantasy managers.
Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network noted on his Move the Sticks podcast (h/t Buck Reising of A to Z Sports) that the Titans are exploring a trade up to No. 3 with the Arizona Cardinals.
The move makes sense from the Titans' perspective. They have taken the Ryan Tannehill train as far as it will go and are within striking distance to trade up.
But the offensive line is going to rely on Andre Dillard to play left tackle after he made just nine starts in four seasons with the Eagles. He missed the entire 2020 campaign with a biceps injury.
In 2022, the unit gave up a league-worst 27.5 pressure percentage.
Not only should the new quarterback be on the run quite often, but they'll be throwing to Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Kyle Philips.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
