Pro Comparisons for Top 2023 NHL Draft Prospects at the Frozen Four
Over the years of watching countless games of college and junior hockey, one thing that's remained true over that time is how best to frustrate a professional scout. A scout has so many things to keep tabs on with the players they're watching, and if you've ever wanted to put them on the spot in the worst way, ask them who the players they're looking at are best compared to in the NHL.
That question is usually followed by a heavy, frustrated sigh and a disclaimer that the player they're mentioning isn't representative of the bar set for that player to reach when (or if) they make it to the NHL. It's a fun, yet cruel, thing to do, but how else are us plebes supposed to understand what kind of player these young stars are?
Fortunately, we are benevolent here and offer up our services to do what scouts hate to do: assign comparable NHL stars to the top prospects we'll see at the Frozen Four in Tampa, Florida. Minnesota, Boston University, Michigan and Quinnipiac make up the field, and there are plenty of drafted players on those rosters.
We'll take a look at a few you may have heard a lot about already this season and will assuredly hear more about during the semifinals and finals. If it seems like this list is loaded with Minnesota and Michigan players...it is. Those two teams are absolutely loaded, and it's worth taking the time out to watch them either succeed greatly or get upended unexpectedly. The Frozen Four is never lacking for drama.
Matthew Knies as Blake Wheeler
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Maybe it was too easy to compare Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Matthew Knies to a former Minnesota Golden Gophers standout, but sometimes it makes the most sense.
Winnipeg Jets forward Blake Wheeler is a 6'5", 225-pound power forward who has piled up points throughout his career. Watching the 6'3", 209-pound Knies play in garnet and gold makes you hearken back to Wheeler's time with the Golden Gophers.
Knies uses his size and skill to create an advantage all over the ice against college defenders who are often unable to matchup with him size-wise. He's a smooth skater and he's got a knack around the net that's allowed him to help his teammates and himself to pile up goals and assists.
Knies is tied for first on the Gophers in goals with Jimmy Snuggerud with 21 and he's third on the team in points behind Logan Cooley and Snuggerud. He's the "old guy" among that top-three as a sophomore, but in both of his seasons in Minnesota he's been able to make Toronto fans clamor to have him leave school early and join the Leafs.
Knies' size and skill would provide the Maple Leafs with a different kind of player up front. Guys like Mitch Marner and William Nylander are about speed and skill, while Michael Bunting can cash in with his body and presence around the net. Knies has been able to do equal parts of both with the Gophers and can also lead an attack up ice with his puck-handling and skating. Those are traits Wheeler has had since he's entered the NHL and has become, quietly, one of the top scorers over the past 10-plus years (he's 10th in the NHL in scoring since 2012-2013).
If Knies can become the second coming of Wheeler at the NHL level, the Leafs will have another supreme offensive weapon in their collection of highly skilled players.
Lane Hutson as Quinn Hughes
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Boston University defenseman Lane Hutson could be a one-of-a-kind defenseman should he make it to the NHL.
While most defensemen these days are supposed to be big-bodied and skilled, Hutson is on the smaller side physically and has all the talent to pile up points in the NCAA. Those kinds of traits sound awfully similar to what Vancouver's Quinn Hughes possessed when he was at the University of Michigan and continues to use in the NHL.
Hutson was a second-round pick of the Montréal Canadiens in 2022, 62nd overall. At 5'10" and 155 pounds, he is not a physically imposing player along the blue line, but his puck-handling and scoring ability sets him apart from his peers at the college level. He's piled up 15 goals and 48 points so far this season as a freshman, and he's got at least one more game to play. He's the top-scoring defenseman in the country and seventh in scoring overall. These are extremely impressive numbers.
Watching him weave through the ice with ease and find openings in the offensive zone to either skate past would-be defenders or use his shot to beat goalies makes you think of Hughes' time with the Wolverines, as well as what he's able to do as one of the NHL's elite scorers from the blue line.
If Hutson is indeed 5'10" like Hughes, it makes the comparison perfect because the similarities in their games are hard to miss. One thing is for sure, the Canadiens would love to see Hutson turn out to be just like the Canucks star.
Luke Hughes as Morgan Rielly
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It'd be easy to compare Michigan's Luke Hughes to his fellow defenseman and older brother Quinn, but they're very much not the same kind of player. Instead, Luke's game relates better in style to that of Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly.
Hughes is strong at both ends of the ice, but his skills shine brighter in the offensive end. Hughes is the second-leading scorer among defensemen in the NCAA, sitting just a point behind Hutson. The Michigan man is best known for his offensive prowess because that's what runs in the family, but he's managed to round out his game a bit more defensively during his sophomore season, and the Wolverines are better for it.
It's that ability to hold his own in the defensive zone that brings Rielly to mind because the Leafs' top defender was known early on for his puck-handling and playmaking, but he's gained maturity in his game this season to help change the dialogue over his defensive play.
The New Jersey Devils will bring Hughes into the fold within the next year or two, and he'll eventually be able to help them score even more often alongside older brother Jack.
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Drew Commesso as Jimmy Howard
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As painful as it is to ask scouts to compare prospect forwards or defensemen to recent NHL players, asking them to do it for goalies is even harder. The added uncertainty of goalies early in their careers leaves a lot of question marks, but for now Boston University's Drew Commesso brings back the memory of another goalie from Hockey East history in Jimmy Howard.
While Commesso doesn't have the fiery temperament that Howard did when he patrolled the net at the University of Maine, how he sets up and plays shots brings Howard to mind. Commesso was a second-round pick by Chicago in 2020, and his BU career has been solid so far. Now that he's helped the Terriers to this year's Frozen Four, his performance has earned him a lot more attention.
Commesso has been remarkably consistent through three years at BU, posting save percentages of .915, .914 and .914. He's picked up more games and wins year to year, and his steady play helped bring BU back to the top of Hockey East and back to the Frozen Four.
While Howard's career at Maine was more prolific, consistency goes a long way in goaltending. Commesso hasn't posted the gaudy numbers Howard did, but you know what you're going to get out of him. If that ability can carry over to the pro game, he'll be able to have a nice professional career, and he might be able to make a run at the NHL in Chicago.
Logan Cooley as Clayton Keller
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Minnesota star Logan Cooley fascinatingly bears a striking resemblance to future teammate and Arizona Coyotes star Clayton Keller.
Cooley's size may not be remarkable, but his skill and scoring ability are at another level. This was similar to how Keller performed at Boston University, and the way he plays now in the NHL is a much more mature version of that.
Keller put up 21 goals and 45 points in his lone season in Boston. By comparison, Cooley has 20 goals and 57 points with at least one more game to play.
At 5'10", 180 pounds, Cooley is an ideal setup man for his linemates and can feast upon goals himself. Keller is 5'10" and 178 pounds and, sheesh, the similarities are getting really spooky, aren't they? Heck, they were both top-10 picks by the Coyotes. Keller went seventh in 2016, while Cooley was 2022's third overall pick.
It might seem like drafting a player who has a lot of similarities to another that's already in the fold is foolish. However, if you've got a player as solid as Keller, having a second one who will potentially be better makes a world of sense. The Coyotes would love to see Cooley evolve just like that.
Mackie Samoskevich as Brayden Point
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When there's a player as solid and steady as Michigan's Mackie Samoskevich, the 24th overall pick by the Florida Panthers in 2021, finding the right player to compare him to is awkward because so much of what he does bears a lot of resemblance to other NHL players. However, how Samoskevich handles the puck, creates room for himself and generates scoring chances shows a lot of similarities to Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brayden Point.
At 5'11" and 190 pounds, Samoskevich is virtually the same size as the 5'11", 180-pound Point. Point was a far more prolific scorer in junior hockey compared to Samoskevich in college hockey. In his final year with Moose Jaw, Point scored 88 points in 48 games, whereas Samoskevich has 43 points in 38 games this season. But we're not looking for carbon copies here, and it's hard to ignore the similarities between Samoskevich's and Point's ability to handle the puck in traffic and take it into dangerous areas of the ice.
If Samoskevich can evolve into a younger player even remotely like Point, it'll be a perfect counter to the Panthers' rival Lightning. That said, Point has set a lofty bar to reach. The Panthers' prospect pool has been hurt from past trades, so there's some pressure on everyone to see Samoskevich become a solid NHL player. If he's even a lite version of Point, that's a huge win.
Adam Fantilli as Patrice Bergeron
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Adam Fantilli is having one of the best freshman seasons in college hockey history. He leads the NCAA in scoring with 64 points and is having the best freshman season since Jack Eichel. There's some irony there, too, because Eichel ran up against an elite junior hockey scorer in his draft year in Connor McDavid, while Fantilli is up against Connor Bedard.
When there's a pedestal like the one set by Eichel, comparing Fantilli to someone in the NHL gets a lot more difficult to do. He plays an aggressive, full-ice attack kind of game and uses his forechecking to create turnovers that turn into scoring opportunities. While Fantilli's offensive prowess is obvious because he's scored 29 goals, his affinity for Boston captain Patrice Bergeron's two-way game has been mentioned in interviews.
When you compare Fantilli's highlights to any of those by Bergeron, it's easy to see the influence. Fantilli is opportunistic and can force the issue on puck-carriers in their defensive zone. That kind of two-way play will make him an instant NHL player next season and a formidable force down the road.
Bergeron wasn't perfect the moment he landed in the NHL, but if he's set the bar for Fantilli to make a run at through his career, there's no higher compliment possible. As it is, Fantilli's points and penalty-minute totals this season are curiously close. Becoming Bergeron takes elite talent and mindset to bear down defensively the way he does. Fantilli won't be at that level right away and might not get there ever, but even if he's a little like Bergeron, he'll wind up being one of the better players in the league.
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