NBA Power Rankings: Where Every Team Stands Ahead of Final Week
As we near the finish line of perhaps the most parity-packed NBA season in recent memory, it's time for another round of power rankings.
Looking at recent performance, numbers, championship chances and good old-fashioned subjectivity, all 30 teams have been sorted from best to worst.
And while there have been some shake-ups here and there, the list is largely starting to crystalize. We know who the truly bad teams are. And we have a decent handle on who the real contenders are.
But what makes this season fun is the number of teams in that second group. The title pursuit feels wide open, and we could be in for a heck of a postseason because of that.
30. San Antonio Spurs (19-57)
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Previous Rank: 29
Net Rating: -10.4
The San Antonio Spurs' 2022-23 campaign is mercifully and tankfully nearing its end.
And there really isn't much to talk about beyond who will be on the roster in 2023-24.
Of course, fans are hoping the big name is Victor Wembanyama, but a number of players already on the team may have shown enough to earn a look in whatever the organization's future holds.
One such name is Tre Jones, who's third on the team in estimated wins (behind Zach Collins and Keldon Johnson) and looks like the kind of steady-handed floor general who could at least run a second unit.
Over his last nine games, Jones is averaging 12.3 points, 6.9 assists, 1.8 steals and just 1.1 turnovers in 28.9 minutes.
29. Detroit Pistons (16-60)
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Previous Rank: 30
Net Rating: -7.5
The Detroit Pistons' desire for the recently acquired James Wiseman to thrive makes sense. And in terms of the numbers we traditionally appreciated for big men, he's showing a lot more than he did with the Golden State Warriors.
After posting a double-double in Wednesday's loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, Wiseman is averaging 13.4 points and 8.7 rebounds as a Piston. But he has almost three times as many turnovers as assists in Detroit (32 to 11), and the team is minus-143 in his minutes (only Killian Hayes is lower over the same span).
Meanwhile, the big man the Pistons drafted this past summer, Jalen Duren, is sixth in this rookie class in estimated wins (the cumulative version of estimated plus/minus, one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in basketball).
In just 24.5 minutes per game, Duren is averaging 8.9 points, 8.7 rebounds and 0.9 blocks.
28. Houston Rockets (18-59)
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Previous Rank: 28
Net Rating: -8.7
The story of this Houston Rockets season is all about youth. They've been inconsistent on both ends of the floor, stacked up all kinds of losses and looked woefully outmatched in most games.
But it hasn't been all folly for this group. At various times throughout the season, each of Alperen Şengün, Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr. and Jabari Smith Jr. has shown off some upside.
And if the playmaking and post-play of Şengün, the shotmaking of Green, the creation of KPJ and the three-and-D game of Smith continue to develop through the summer, Houston should be feistier in 2023-24.
27. Charlotte Hornets (26-51)
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Previous Rank: 27
Net Rating: -5.9
The Charlotte Hornets have suddenly won three straight (and four of five), and the entirety of the winning streak has come against Western Conference play-in contenders.
Charlotte registered back-to-back wins over the Dallas Mavericks before P.J. Washington dropped a career-high 43 in a road victory of the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday.
Over his last 19 appearances, Washington is putting up a well-rounded 18.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.3 threes, 1.3 blocks and 1.0 steals.
This streak and his improved play haven't really damaged the Hornets' long-term pursuits either. They're pretty much locked into the fourth-best draft lottery odds and still have seven more losses than the closest team on that list.
26. Portland Trail Blazers (32-44)
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Previous Rank: 25
Net Rating: -3.0
The Portland Trail Blazers are 1-10 in their last 11 games, Damian Lillard has been shut down for the remainder of the season and the team is pretty much locked into at least a 7.5 percent chance to land the top pick in the draft.
Sound familiar?
It may have taken a little longer to come to the realization in 2022-23, but this is essentially the same script Portland followed in 2021-22.
And even if the Blazers are lucky enough to land Victor Wembanyama this summer, will he be ready to help Lillard win a title in the next few years?
Dame turns 33 in July. Not many stars age as well as LeBron James. Lillard has to at least be nearing a downturn (though this season suggests he could delay that longer than most).
At the very least, Portland might have to think about what it could get in a trade for its superstar. A massive haul would make building around this summer's pick a lot easier.
25. Indiana Pacers (33-44)
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Previous Rank: 24
Net Rating: -3.3
Bennedict Mathurin averaged 19.4 points and 2.4 threes, while shooting 44.1 percent from the field and 42.3 percent from three over his first 18 games.
From that point through Saturday's loss to the Atlanta Hawks, he was at 15.2 points, with a 42.7 field-goal percentage and a 26.5 three-point percentage.
As is the case with most players, the real Mathurin is probably somewhere between those two extremes, and his last two performances (in which he dropped 55 total points) suggest the rough stretch won't define him.
And for a team spiraling toward better lottery odds, glimpses of upside from young players are more important than wins and losses.
24. Washington Wizards (34-42)
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Previous Rank: 26
Net Rating: -0.7
The Washington Wizards already clinched a losing record for the fifth straight season. So, perhaps we shouldn't be all that confused by them.
But this particular version of the Wizards is just that.
After pulling to within two games of .500 in early March, they embarked on a 3-10 stretch that all but eliminated them from play-in contention. Then on Tuesday, without Bradley Beal, they closed out this week with a blowout win over a bona fide title contender.
Washington beat the Boston Celtics, 130-111, behind a combined 57 points on 24-of-37 shooting from Kristaps Porziņģis and Deni Avdija.
The Wizards are now 4-1 when both of the European forwards get to at least 20 points.
23. Orlando Magic (32-44)
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Previous Rank: 23
Net Rating: -2.2
There was a brief moment when it looked like the upstart Orlando Magic might make a real push for a play-in spot, but middling play over the last several weeks and the season's finish line drawing near has all but ended that dream.
And that's probably fine.
This is one of the youngest teams in the NBA. Making the postseason now would've been at least a year or two ahead of schedule, and this season was always more about flashes of upside from the young core.
One player who's provided plenty of those is Paolo Banchero.
Despite being arguably the league's worst jump shooter in 2022-23, he's an overwhelming favorite to win Rookie of the Year because of the responsibility he's carried as a No. 1 option and the chops he's shown as a potential point forward.
And, after a percentage-crushing shooting slump he went through in February, Banchero is averaging 20.9 points and 1.5 threes, while shooting 38.8 percent from deep over his last 13 games.
If he's already turned a corner with his one glaring weakness, he and the Magic could make even more noise in 2023-24.
22. Utah Jazz (36-40)
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Previous Rank: 22
Net Rating: -0.4
They've slowly but surely wiggled their way out of the play-in range of the Western Conference standings, but the Utah Jazz might just have too much talent for a full-blown tank.
That was abundantly clear when Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen were playing nearly every night. It was still fairly obvious even after the Conley trade.
And now, with Markkanen sporadically sitting out games, Utah is still sporadically picking up victories.
Sure, the latest one was against the San Antonio Spurs, who've been in the bottom three all year, but the Jazz started Simone Fontecchio and Juan Toscano-Anderson. They played each of Luka Šamanić, Udoka Azubuike and Johnny Juzang 20-plus minutes off the bench.
But apparently, that wasn't enough. Instead of losing, Utah got a career-high 41 points from Talen Horton-Tucker in a victory. Over his last 10 games, THT is averaging 18.8 points and 6.7 assists.
21. Chicago Bulls (36-40)
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Previous Rank: 21
Net Rating: +0.8
Thanks to the Washington Wizards' issues and generally decent play since late February, the Chicago Bulls are on track for a spot in the play-in tournament.
But every time it starts to feel like you can put a little trust in this team, some opponent reminds us why the Bulls are below .500.
After Patrick Beverley "too-smalled" LeBron James in the Bulls' win on Sunday, Chicago turned around and lost back-to-back games to the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers to close out the week.
20. Atlanta Hawks (38-38)
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Previous Rank: 20
Net Rating: +0.1
After a series of ups followed by immediate downs (or vice versa), Kramer once proclaimed his friend and neighbor Jerry to be "Even Steven."
This NBA season, the Atlanta Hawks have become the basketball version of that moniker. Over the last 26 games, the degree to which this is happening is almost spooky.
The trend continued Tuesday with a crunch-time win over the Cleveland Cavaliers that was spearheaded by Dejounte Murray's 29 points and late-game scoring.
19. Dallas Mavericks (37-40)
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Previous Rank: 16
Net Rating: +0.2
The Dallas Mavericks' slide has officially entered alarming territory, as they dropped their fifth game in six tries with a 116-108 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday.
They're now outside the top 10 in the West, a result that would feel borderline catastrophic if they stay there. With five games left, they're 12 wins shy of exceeding their preseason over-under of 48.5, and FiveThirtyEight's projection model gives them a 19 percent chance to make the playoffs
If they don't make any version of postseason play, and Kyrie Irving leaves in free agency, Dallas could be in for a summer of upheaval.
18. New Orleans Pelicans (39-38)
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Previous Rank: 19
Net Rating: +2.0
The New Orleans Pelicans couldn't afford to wait for Zion Williamson's return before solidifying their position in the play-in tournament.
And after winning six of their last seven, they've not only done that, but they're now within a game of the sixth-place Golden State Warriors and have the chance to dodge the play-in altogether.
If Brandon Ingram maintains his superstar-level play, that goal is realistic. During this seven-game run, Ingram is averaging 29.4 points, 8.6 assists and 6.6 rebounds while shooting 52.7 percent from the field.
17. Los Angeles Lakers (38-38)
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Previous Rank: 18
Net Rating: +0.1
Thanks to injuries and trades, it took all the way till game No. 76 for the Los Angeles Lakers to settle on what feels like the right starters.
In Wednesday's win over the Chicago Bulls, D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Jarred Vanderbilt and Anthony Davis made up the starting lineup, and L.A. was plus-22 in the 16 minutes all five were on the floor.
Of course, the sub-.500 Bulls don't represent the best possible competition, but it's easy to see how this group will work going forward.
Reaves and Russell provide solid outside shooting. Vanderbilt can handle a lot of the dirty work that the Lakers may want to spare AD from. And of course, the top two of Davis and LeBron have already proven themselves title-worthy when surrounded by the right supporting cast.
That's not to say a .500 team will suddenly and miraculously challenge the bona fide contenders. We're still not even sure they'll make the playoffs. But if they do, this team is an awful lot scarier than it was a few months ago.
16. Toronto Raptors (38-38)
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Previous Rank: 17
Net Rating: +1.2
The Toronto Raptors spent most of this season with a record that lagged behind their point differential, but this current stretch finally has those two numbers starting to align.
This 6-2 run started with a revenge win over the Denver Nuggets on March 14, and their most recent win came in convincing fashion against the Miami Heat on national TV.
It's probably too little, too late, in terms of a push to escape the play-in range, but the Raptors finding some rhythm ahead of a brutal upcoming road trip (in which they play the Philadelphia 76ers and face the Boston Celtics twice) and a potential one-and-done game ahead of the playoffs could be crucial.
During these eight games, the core players have been excellent.
- Fred VanVleet: 24.0 points, 7.4 assists, 3.8 threes, 40.0 three-point percentage
- Pascal Siakam: 23.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, 6.0 assists
- O.G. Anunoby: 19.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.1 threes, 1.4 steals, 50.0 three-point percentage
- Gary Trent Jr.: 17.8 points, 2.8 threes, 45.8 three-point percentage
- Scottie Barnes: 14.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.5 steals
- Jakob Poeltl: 12.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.3 blocks
And if they can maintain this level of play through the play-in and into the first round of the playoffs, they might be able to put a scare into some higher seed.
15. Brooklyn Nets (41-35)
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Previous Rank: 15
Net Rating: +0.9
One of the most fascinating stats of the season emerged this week, and it was generated by the playing time of the Brooklyn Nets' new core.
That's right. Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden spent less time on the floor together than Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Spencer Dinwiddie.
And while that has more to do with the former trio, the current one is worth highlighting.
In Wednesday's win over the Houston Rockets, they combined for 78 points on 46 field-goal attempts.
And for the entire time they've been together, Brooklyn is plus-50 when all three are on the floor.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder (38-39)
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Previous Rank: 14
Net Rating: +1.0
It's probably too late for the Rookie of the Year odds to move off Paolo Banchero, but Jalen Williams should be getting a more serious look.
He trails only Walker Kessler (another rookie who probably deserves a little more attention) in estimated wins, and he's averaging 14.1 points, 3.3 assists and 1.0 threes per game while shooting 52.4 percent from the field.
But even that doesn't quite capture how good Williams is.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have entrusted him with more responsibility over the last several weeks, and he's more than rewarding their confidence.
Over his last 22 games, Williams is averaging 19.5 points, 4.3 assists and 1.3 threes while shooting 55.7 percent from the field and 46.8 percent from deep.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves (39-38)
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Previous Rank: 13
Net Rating: -0.1
As is the case with the Los Angeles Lakers, trades and injuries have limited the on-court exposure of the Minnesota Timberwolves' best potential lineups.
Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert have only played 35 non-garbage time possessions together. Even if you drop McDaniels from the search, that possession total stays below 100.
But for the first time this season, it's starting to feel like this team might actually be able to make the Towns-Gobert pairing work.
The Timberwolves had won four straight before ending their week with a loss to the Phoenix Suns in Kevin Durant's home debut with his new team, and KAT is averaging 20.3 points in 30.6 minutes since returning from injury.
Replacing D'Angelo Russell with Conley should continue to free up a little usage for both Towns and Edwards, and McDaniels and Gobert potentially make up one of the game's best perimeter-interior defensive duos.
12. Miami Heat (40-37)
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Previous Rank: 8
Net Rating: -1.3
Right when the Miami Heat looked to be entering some kind of playoff mode, they rattled off an 0-3 week capped with a loss to the New York Knicks.
All three games came against teams that figure to be in the playoffs (the Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors and Knicks), but perhaps that's a reminder of how low this particular Heat squad's ceiling is.
Underestimating playoff Jimmy Butler is fraught with peril, but this is starting to feel like one of the weaker supporting casts he's had in Miami.
When Butler is on the floor, the Heat are just plus-1.3 points per 100 possessions, while they're minus-3.2 without him.
11. Golden State Warriors (40-37)
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Previous Rank: 12
Net Rating: +0.6
On Tuesday, the Golden State Warriors reminded the league of the offensive avalanches they can unleash when Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are all available.
With just under a minute left in the second quarter, the Warriors found themselves down by 20 to the New Orleans Pelicans. From that point to the final buzzer, Golden State outscored its opponent, 77-46.
Curry finished with 39 points and eight assists. Klay hit five threes on the way to 17 points. And Draymond had 13 dimes.
On the season, the Warriors are now 6-3 when Curry and Thompson each hit at least five threes.
10. New York Knicks (44-33)
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Previous Rank: 11
Net Rating: +2.7
As the playoffs draw near, Immanuel Quickley is looking more and more like a potential series-shifting weapon for the New York Knicks.
With Jalen Brunson out of the lineup on Monday, Quickley started and went off for 40 points on 14-of-18 shooting.
He followed that up with a team-high 24 points off the bench in Wednesday's win, and he's now averaging 20.3, while shooting 47.0 percent from the field and 38.0 percent from deep, over his last 15 appearances.
9. Los Angeles Clippers (41-36)
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Previous Rank: 9
Net Rating: +0.4
There was plenty of skepticism about the Los Angeles Clippers' acquisition of Russell Westbrook in February. And when they lost the first five games he played for the team, it was easy to double down on those takes.
But since then, Westbrook has looked about as willing to defer as he has at any point in his career. In the 11 games since that losing streak, L.A. is 8-3, with Westbrook averaging 14.7 points, 6.9 assists and 5.5 rebounds while shooting 47.3 percent from the field.
And in Wednesday's win over the Memphis Grizzlies, Russ showed he's still able to scale up when called upon. With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both out, Westbrook had 36 points and 10 dimes.
8. Phoenix Suns (41-35)
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Previous Rank: 10
Net Rating: +2.1
Almost two months after the Phoenix Suns traded for him, Kevin Durant made his home debut Wednesday.
He shot just 5-of-18 from the field and was minus-one for the game, but he also had four assists, and the Suns won by seven over a Minnesota Timberwolves squad that's been playing well.
Ultimately, getting Durant back with a little runway before the playoffs has to be seen as a good thing. They'd lost six of seven earlier this month and appeared to genuinely miss the depth they lost in the KD trade.
Having him back on the floor with Devin Booker and Chris Paul was a good reminder of the ridiculous offensive upside this trio has. In just 81 minutes, Phoenix is plus-48 when all three are on the floor.
7. Sacramento Kings (46-30)
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Previous Rank: 7
Net Rating: +2.9
The Sacramento Kings just closed out what may have been the biggest week the franchise has had in two decades.
On Wednesday, thanks to a 120-80 road beatdown of the Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento clinched its first playoff berth since 2006.
And in the same game, rookie Keegan Murray also made history.
After going 3-of-7 from three in 22 minutes, Murray became the record holder for most threes made in a season by a rookie.
After all the hand-wringing in the media over the trade that landed Domantas Sabonis (and cost the team Tyrese Haliburton) last season, Sacramento has more than proved itself right (without necessarily proving the Indiana Pacers wrong).
The front office followed that move by drafting Murray in the summer and adding shooting in the form of Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk. Surrounded by the improved supporting cast, Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox both played like legitimate All-NBA candidates.
And the Kings lit the beam over and over to the postseason.
6. Memphis Grizzlies (48-28)
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Previous Rank: 6
Net Rating: +4.3
The Memphis Grizzlies seem to have finally and fully moved beyond Ja Morant's suspension for conduct detrimental to the league after he appeared to display a gun during an Instagram live video in early March.
They'd already gotten on track in terms of wins and losses during his absence (they were 6-3), and despite a loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday, they're 4-1 since he returned (though he missed one of those games).
And since he reentered the rotation, Morant is averaging 24.5 points and 7.0 assists in just 27.0 minutes.
Getting Ja up to speed while also helping Tyus Jones rediscover his starter-level form (he's at 14.8 points, 7.9 assists and 2.0 threes per game, with a 40.0 three-point percentage since Ja's suspension started) just ahead of the postseason should make Memphis plenty dangerous.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (48-29)
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Previous Rank: 5
Net Rating: +5.8
Cleveland Cavaliers fans were rightfully up in arms at the end of Tuesday's 120-118 loss to the Atlanta Hawks, when a late foul call against Evan Mobley was upheld despite Dejounte Murray expanding his "landing zone" well beyond its natural limits.
With the Philadelphia 76ers suddenly sliding, a Cleveland win could've given them a very real shot at the East's third seed. And while that pursuit isn't necessarily dead, the loss makes it a long shot, at best.
That means a 4-5 showdown between the Cavs and Donovan Mitchell's other offseason suitor, the New York Knicks, is pretty much locked in. And the potential drama that series brings is a win for the fans (even if Cleveland may have preferred to start the postseason against the Brooklyn Nets or Miami Heat).
4. Denver Nuggets (51-25)
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Previous Rank: 4
Net Rating: +3.8
The Denver Nuggets seem to have put their early-March woes behind them—they had a four-game winning streak before Thursday's week-ending loss to the New Orleans Pelicans—but the minutes without Nikola Jokić remain a gargantuan concern.
Jokić sat out the Pelicans loss with a calf injury, and Denver had a season-low 88 points. It lost to a barely-above-.500 team by 19.
On the season, the Nuggets are a juggernaut-like plus-14.0 points per 100 possessions when Jokić is on the floor and a tanktastic minus-14.3 without him. That 28.3-point swing in net rating is, by far, the biggest in the NBA among players with at least 1,000 minutes.
Put another way, Denver has a point differential around that of a 69-win team when Jokić plays and one around that of a 12-win team when he doesn't.
That should be terrifying for Nuggets fans who think this team can win a championship.
In the playoffs, the two-time reigning MVP will probably play close to 40 minutes per game, but the rest of the team has been bad enough without him that the other 8-10 minutes each night could sink their title hopes.
3. Philadelphia 76ers (50-26)
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Previous Rank: 1
Net Rating: +4.7
The Philadelphia 76ers had lost four of five, and Joel Embiid sitting out the rematch with Nikola Jokić in Denver certainly generated some negative attention, but Philly secured a get-right win over the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday.
Embiid returned to action in the Sixers' first game after losing to the Nuggets, and he went 8-of-9 from the free-throw line in a 116-108 win. Harden, who also missed the Denver game, handed out a game-high 12 assists.
On the season, Philadelphia is plus-9.6 points per 100 possessions when both are on the floor, and Harden-to-Embiid has been (by far) the most prolific assist combo in the league.
2. Milwaukee Bucks (55-22)
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Previous Rank: 2
Net Rating: +3.7
The Milwaukee Bucks are a stellar 26-5 since mid-January, but a couple recent performances suggest they may not be a runaway favorite to win the championship.
On Saturday, they got rocked 129-106 by the Denver Nuggets, but that one wasn't overly alarming. The Nuggets are a juggernaut at home, and they have the best offensive player in the world.
But on Thursday, the Bucks lost 140-99 to the Boston Celtics in Milwaukee. And taken together, it's fair to at least be mildly concerned about this team's offense.
On the season, the Bucks are in the bottom half of the league in points per 100 possessions. And the 115.8 they score when Giannis is on the floor is fewer than Nuggets score with Nikola Jokić (124.8), the Celtics score with Jayson Tatum (119.4) and the Philadelphia 76ers score with Joel Embiid (119.0).
1. Boston Celtics (53-24)
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Previous Rank: 3
Net Rating: +6.6
The Boston Celtics made a statement with the playoffs approaching, blowing the doors off Fiserv Forum with a 140-99 win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for 70 points on 38 field-goal attempts, and the conference-leading Bucks looked completely discombobulated against Boston's long, switchy defense.
It was a reminder of how ridiculously high the Celtics' upside is when they're locked in.
They may have thrown some people off the scent when they lost four of five in late February and early March, when they lost to the Houston Rockets a little after that or when they got blown out by the Washington Wizards more recently, but few teams check as many boxes.
With a wealth of wings and playmakers, including Tatum, Brown, Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon and Marcus Smart, this team can attack from all over the floor and deploys one of the league's most versatile defenses. Having Al Horford, Robert Williams III and Grant Williams allows them to play big when they need to, too.
Plus, most of this group just made the Finals last summer. They have the experience necessary to make another run.
Stat of the Week
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Plenty of numbers signify the offensive explosion within the NBA in 2022-23.
The average effective field-goal percentage of 54.5 is an all-time high. Ditto for the 114.8 points per 100 possessions teams are scoring this season.
But one that highlights the leaguewide trend while also showcasing the depth of talent is the number of 40-point performances.
Players have gotten to that mark 188 times this season, a total that leaves the previous record of 142 (set in 1961-62) in the dust.
But that doesn't quite capture how unique this season has been.
Sixty-three of those 40-point performances in 1961-62 came from one player (Wilt Chamberlain). Only 13 different players got to 40 in a game that season.
In 2022-23, the leader for 40-point games is Damian Lillard with 15. And the number of players who've hit the plateau is a whopping 55. Twenty-seven different teams have had a 40-point performance. Kyrie Irving has done it for two different teams. The New York Knicks and New Orleans Pelicans both have four players who've done it.
This is wild.
And while it's fun to try to dig into why this is happening, it's probably fine to simply settle on NBA players being generally better than they've ever been at scoring.
The Bona Fide Title Contenders
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You can make real, good-faith arguments for several teams being title contenders this season.
The Los Angeles Clippers have Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and Russell Westbrook is suddenly looking like the right third wheel. After the trade deadline, the Los Angeles Lakers have a supporting cast that makes a lot more sense around LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
The Phoenix Suns added Kevin Durant to a core that's already been to an NBA Finals. The Sacramento Kings have the highest offensive rating in NBA history. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been first or second in point differential for most of the season. And of course, the reigning champion Golden State Warriors still have Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and unrivaled playoff and championship experience.
But if we're to trust projection models from around the internet (and I'm certainly not saying you should), the five teams with the best shot at winning the 2023 championship are the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Memphis Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets.
FiveThirtyEight, ESPN and Basketball Reference all have their own projections for who will win the title, and if you average those three, the five teams above are the only ones above 10 percent.
- Boston: 19.8 percent
- Milwaukee: 15.7 percent
- Philadelphia: 12.6 percent
- Memphis: 11.7 percent
- Denver: 11.4 percent
But obviously, as KD has stated (more or less), basketball goes beyond the graphs. There's plenty that projection models can't, well, project. And this season, the pursuit of a championship feels as wide open as it's been in decades.
Statistics via Basketball Reference, NBA.com, Dunks and Threes and Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise noted.
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