NBA Free Agents 2023: Predictions for Players Who Will Command Most Interest

When the dust settles on the 2022-23 NBA season and the next champion is crowned, the basketball world will shift shortly thereafter.

It happens every summer, like clockwork.

The trade market can create some of those major changes, but free agency does, too.

While this free-agent market isn't littered with household names, there are a few high-profile hoopers up for grabs. We'll spotlight three of them here, then predict where they'll sign.

James Harden, Philadelphia 76ers (Player Option)

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PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - MARCH 20: James Harden #1 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on during the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bulls at Wells Fargo Center on March 20, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images) (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

James Harden has engineered more productive seasons in the past, but that just speaks to the absurdity of his stat sheet.

For most players, a year like the one he's having would be a dream come true. For the former MVP, though, the numbers are essentially par for the course: 21.4 points, 10.8 assists and 6.3 rebounds per outing.

You know what those numbers are? They are the biggest reasons for him to decline his $35.6 million player option, per Spotrac, and test the market for a new deal.

While a return to the Houston Rockets has been mentioned as a possibility, the Beard won't find a better situation than his current digs in Philadelphia. He teams with an MVP candidate in Joel Embiid and a rising star in Tyrese Maxey, but clearly, this supporting cast doesn't limit Harden's involvement. He can star for the Sixers and chase a championship. That's as good as it can get.

Prediction: Harden stays with the 76ers.

Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks (Unrestricted)

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CHARLOTTE, NC - MARCH 26: Kyrie Irving #2 of the Dallas Mavericks looks on during the game against the Charlotte Hornets on March 26, 2023 at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2023 NBAE (Photo by Kent Smith/NBAE via Getty Images)

Whatever was supposed to happen for Kyrie Irving in Dallas simply hasn't.

Prior to his Feb. 8 debut, the Mavericks were 29-26 and seeded sixth in the Western Conference. Ever since the swap, though, Dallas is just 7-13 and down to 11th in the West.

The slide isn't Irving's fault—he's averaged 26.3 points on 50/38.8/93.7 shooting and 5.9 assists over 16 games—but it speaks to the flawed state of this roster. Despite having two prolific players in Irving and Luka Dončić, the Mavericks can't get any traction.

Both parties should be rethinking this partnership. Dallas can't feel great about the prospect of giving Irving major coin, and Irving can't like his championship chances if he stays. A clean split might be the best path forward, and Irving could find a comfy landing spot further out West with his old running mate, LeBron James.

Prediction: Irving signs with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Kyle Kuzma, Washington Wizards (Player Option)

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WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 18: Kyle Kuzma #33 of the Washington Wizards handles the ball against the Sacramento Kings at Capital One Arena on March 18, 2023 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

Timing is huge for NBA free agents, and Kyle Kuzma seems to understand that.

The sixth-year swingman has delivered his best campaign yet, just in time to ditch his $13 million player option without a second thought and give a boost to his bank account.

His 2022-23 stat line is loaded with career-highs, including 21.2 points, 3.7 assists and 2.5 three-pointers. He's one of 13 players averaging 20 points, seven rebounds and three assists, per StatHead. The list is essentially otherwise populated by annual All-Stars.

The Wizards will surely make a big push to keep him—if they didn't plan on it, they would have traded him at the deadline—but he'll have other options. Perhaps the most enticing would be a return to his home state of Michigan to help the rebuilding Detroit Pistons take a big step forward next season.

Prediction: Kuzma signs in Detroit.