2023 NFL Free Agency: Early Moves That Will Make Teams Instant Contenders
In the NFL, everyone knows that Super Bowls aren't won in the early stages of free agency. However, we've recently seen big early moves help struggling franchises enter the realm of contention.
In 2021, the Cincinnati Bengals reloaded their defense with players like Larry Ogunjobi, Eli Apple, Chidobe Awuzie, Mike Hilton and Trey Hendrickson. They reached Super Bowl LVI. Last offseason, the Jacksonville Jaguars added Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Arden Key and Brandon Scherff. They made it to the divisional round.
Before these pivotal offseasons, the 2020 Bengals and 2021 Jaguars had a combined seven wins.
It takes smart drafting, sound player development and good coaching to become a true title contender, but a successful foray into free agency can help. With this in mind, let's dive into the early 2023 moves that could make non-contenders into formidable playoff foes.
We'll look specifically at 2022 non-playoff teams and those who exited in the Wild Card Round and identify the free-agent signings and trades that could make some of them contenders.
Each situation is unique. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
Carolina Panthers: Trading for the No. 1 Pick
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2022 Result: 7-10, missed playoffs
The Carolina Panthers got aggressive in their pursuit of a franchise quarterback. They nabbed the No. 1 pick in April's draft by dealing wideout D.J. Moore, the No. 9 selection, the 61st overall pick, a 2024 first-rounder and a 2025 second-rounder to the Chicago Bears.
The Panthers now have their choice of top QB prospects like Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Florida's Anthony Richardson, Alabama's Bryce Young and Kentucky's Will Levis.
If Carolina uncovers a quality rookie starter, it can become a contender. This is a squad that came close to winning the NFC South in 2022. It now has an experienced head coach in Frank Reich—who is an improvement over Matt Rhule and provides more long-term stability than interim coach Steve Wilks—and could end up with the best quarterback in the division.
Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer has also done strong work in free agency, adding running back Miles Sanders, tight end Hayden Hurst, wideout Adam Thielen, safety Vonn Bell and seasoned backup quarterback Andy Dalton, among others.
The 2021 New England Patriots went on a free-agent spending spree, adding players like Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor, Matt Judon, Jonnu Smith and Kyle Van Noy before drafting Mac Jones in Round 1. Jones was a rookie Pro Bowler, and the Patriots made the postseason.
The Panthers are poised to follow a similar formula.
They are putting solid pieces around their incoming quarterback, and the division is up for grabs, especially with Tom Brady now retired. A two- or three-win improvement is realistic, and that could be more than enough to take the NFC South.
Chicago Bears: Building Around Justin Fields
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2022 Result: 3-14, missed playoffs
The Bears could be this year's version of the 2021 Bengals or 2022 Jags. It's hard to point to a single move here, though acquiring Moore in the trade with Carolina is a big one.
General manager Ryan Poles committed to Justin Fields when he traded the No. 1 overall pick. That was a logical move, as Fields has shown elite traits, though not the desired consistency of a franchise quarterback.
In 2022, Fields rushed for more than 1,100 yards and posted an 85.2 passer rating, and he was largely carrying the offense and the team by himself. That won't be the case in 2023.
In addition to Moore, Chicago added running back D'Onta Foreman, tight end Robert Tonyan Jr., guard Nate Davis and running back Travis Homer. These are players who will help improve Fields' receiving corps, run support and pass protection.
The Bears also addressed their 29th-ranked defense by adding linebacker T.J. Edwards, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, defensive tackle Andrew Billings and edge-rusher DeMarcus Walker. Chicago should be able to generate a bit more pressure in the passing game while significantly improving its 31st-ranked run defense.
Poles will add another impact player with the ninth overall pick too.
With better offensive weapons, a healthy Darnell Mooney (ankle) and better protection, Fields should improve as a passer. He's already one of the most dangerous scramblers in the game, and opposing offenses won't be able to just keep him off the field by running the ball.
A massive improvement in the win column should be coming. Even if the Bears don't claim the NFC North, they'll be dangerous and a heck of a lot of fun to watch.
Detroit Lions: Signing Cameron Sutton and C.J. Gardner-Johnson
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2022 Results: 9-8, missed playoffs
The Bears might not win the NFC North because there's a good chance the Detroit Lions will. Detroit saw something click under head coach Dan Campbell in 2022. The team rattled off eight wins in its final 10 games to just barely miss the postseason.
Few offenses were as potent, with the unit ranking fourth in yards and fifth in scoring. However, a defense that ranked dead last in yards allowed and 28th in points allowed was a major liability.
The offense, which replaced running back Jamaal Williams with David Montgomery, should be just as good next year. The defense will be better.
The Lions will need to address their run defense in the draft, but they made two big moves to bolster their secondary. They signed former Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Cameron Sutton and former Philadelphia Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Sutton and Gardner-Johnson recorded a combined 23 passes defended and nine interceptions in 2022. Sutton allowed an opposing passer rating of only 65.3, while Gardner-Johnson allowed an opposing passer rating of just 78.4.
The Lions' 30th-ranked pass defense will see a significant boost with these two in the fold, and Detroit is now arguably the most talented team in the division.
"This team has talent. This team, we can win the division," Gardner-Johnson said in his introductory press conference.
The 2022 Lions would have been dangerous had they sneaked into the postseason. The 2023 Lions won't be sneaking into anything, and with an improved secondary, they'll be a tough out for any opponent.
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Miami Dolphins: Trading for Jalen Ramsey
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2022 Results: 9-8, lost in Wild Card Round
To be fair, the Miami Dolphins might have made a respectable playoff run if starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa wasn't sidelined by a concussion. Third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson started against the Buffalo Bills in an AFC Wild Card matchup, and the Dolphins still only lost by a field goal.
Miami could have beaten Buffalo with Thompson under center if only it could have contained the Bills offense, which racked up 34 points.
With Tagovailoa under center, Miami's sixth-ranked offense should be just as dangerous in 2023. The Dolphins brought back running backs Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson and Myles Gaskin while replacing tight end Mike Gesicki with Eric Saubert and adding wideout Braxton Berrios.
Miami also traded a 2023 third-round pick and tight end Hunter Long for Los Angeles Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
Ramsey remains one of the league's top coverage corners and logged four interceptions while allowing an opposing passer rating of 84.5 last season.
The secondary also features Pro Bowler Xavien Howard and standout safety Jevon Holland, giving Miami a formidable unit. Ramsey's addition should help the defense create turnovers and limit touchdown passes (he surrendered five last year but only nine over the past four seasons).
The Dolphins logged just eight interceptions in 2022 (a bottom-five mark) while surrendering 27 touchdowns through the air (bottom-10).
Miami is a more balanced team with Ramsey on the roster. That alone should be enough to take it a step or two further in the postseason.
New Orleans Saints: Signing Derek Carr
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2022 Results: 7-10, missed playoffs
Like the Panthers, the New Orleans Saints came close to winning the NFC South last year and will benefit from not having Tom Brady leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023. They'll also gain a lot at quarterback after signing Derek Carr.
To be fair, Andy Dalton was solid for the Saints in 2022, finishing with a 95.2 passer rating and going 6-8 as the starter. Carr, however, is a four-time Pro Bowler who has experience playing under head coach Dennis Allen.
General manager Mickey Loomis has done a fantastic job of managing the rest of the roster. He brought in a dangerous runner in Jamaal Williams, reloaded the defensive line with Khalen Saunders and agreed to a contract restructure wideout Michael Thomas' to keep him in the lineup.
Assuming Thomas can remain healthy, he'll be a major asset for Carr.
Adding Carr was the key move for New Orleans, though, because it will provide stability at the game's most important position. Carr is remarkably durable and is an above-average starter at his worst and a top-10 signal-caller at his best (he ranked third in MVP voting in 2016).
We'll have to see how Baker Mayfield fares in Tampa, how much Desmond Ridder grows with the Atlanta Falcons and how Carolina's situation under center shakes out. For now, though, the Saints have the best quarterback in the NFC South, the division is winnable, and the team will be in the playoff hunt.
With a defense that ranked fifth overall in 2022, New Orleans will be dangerous come playoff time if it gets into the dance.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Addressing the Offensive Line
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2022 Results: 9-8, missed playoffs
It feels like the Pittsburgh Steelers are always on the verge of contention, and that's because they are. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has never experienced a losing season.
Despite starting rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett for all but one of its final nine games, Pittsburgh won seven of those contests and just barely missed the playoffs.
General manager Omar Khan has made a couple of savvy moves this offseason, like adding linebackers Elandon Roberts and Cole Holcomb to replace Devin Bush and Robert Spillane. He also signed cornerback Patrick Peterson to replace Cameron Sutton.
However, the most notable addition is that of former Eagles guard Isaac Seumalo. A tremendous run-blocker and pass protector, Seumalo allowed just one sack and was flagged for six penalties last season, according to Pro Football Focus.
He will be an immediate upgrade over left guard Kevin Dotson, who was responsible for four sacks allowed and 12 penalties.
The Steelers also added guard Nate Herbig from the New York Jets, and he can provide valuable depth on the interior. Herbig started 11 games in 2022 and allowed just a single sack, according to PFF.
Pickett will have improved pass protection as he looks to take that proverbial next step in Year 2. Pittsburgh should also have better run blocking after ranking just 25th in yards per carry (4.1) last season.
Despite not having star pass-rusher T.J. Watt for seven games in 2022, the Steelers had a top-10 scoring defense. Even if the 26th-ranked scoring offense only sees marginal improvement with its new O-line additions, Pittsburgh will be an AFC North threat that can go far.
Seattle Seahawks: Strengthening the Run Defense
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2022 Results: 9-8, lost in Wild Card Round
The Seattle Seahawks reached the postseason but were promptly eliminated by the NFC West rival San Francisco 49ers. A big reason for the early dismissal was a run defense that ranked 30th in yards allowed and 26th in yards per carry allowed (4.9).
In its playoff loss, the Seahawks gave up 181 yards on the ground. During the regular season, they surrendered more than 100 rushing yards 13 times and more than 150 rushing yards eight times.
Because teams could regularly control the tempo with the ground game, opponents' drives lasted, on average, 14 seconds longer than Seattle's. Over 188 drives—compared to Seattle's 187—that's a time-of-possession advantage of roughly 44 minutes over the course of the season.
In free agency, general manager John Schneider added defensive tackle Dre'Mont Jones, defensive end Jarran Reed and linebacker Devin Bush.
These three new front-seven defenders combined for 180 tackles in 2022 and just four missed tackles. Seattle's run defense should see a big boost without sacrificing the potential to generate pass pressure.
Reed and Jones combined for nine sacks in 2022.
The Seahawks also added safety Julian Love, who notched 124 tackles with the New York Giants last season and is solid in run support.
With quarterback Geno Smith returning on a three-year contract extension, the offense, which ranked ninth in scoring last season, will be a playoff-caliber unit. If the defense isn't getting controlled by opposing ball-carriers, Seattle will have an opportunity to go further than it did a year ago.
*Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
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