Potential Surprise Candidates to Be Picked 1st Among 2023 NFL Draft Position Groups
Surprises aren't uncommon during the NFL draft.
A year ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Travon Walker with the No. 1 pick even though Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux were generally viewed as superior prospects at the same position throughout the predraft process.
Higher-profile prospects have been passed over for others at their position in plenty of classic instances. Edgerrin James over Ricky Williams in 1999, Philip Rivers over Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 and Earl Thomas over Taylor Mays in 2010 are but a few examples.
Not every board is the same. Each NFL scouting department sets theirs up differently based on numerous internal factors that aren't public knowledge.
As such, a team may fall in love with a specific prospect when another at the same position tends to be more lauded and higher graded, according to those on the outside.
The idea that specific prospects are locked into certain spots is folly. Even at this point in the draft cycle, evaluations remain ongoing. Something unexpected is bound to happen once the 2023 draft begins April 27 in Kansas City.
The following six prospects have a chance to leapfrog their more recognizable counterparts and become the first players off the board at their respective positions. Two common traits will appear with all of them: athleticism and potential.
QB: Anthony Richardson over C.J. Stroud/Bryce Young
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Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and Alabama's Bryce Young are clearly the best quarterbacks coming out of the collegiate ranks. Florida's Anthony Richardson is a work-in-progress.
However, the one-year starter has two factors potentially working to make him the No. 1 overall pick.
First, Richardson's upside is immense. Of all the quarterbacks in this year's class, he's the one with the caliber of traits to eventually make him one of the league's five best signal-callers. As talented as Stroud and Young are, their best projections don't place them among the NFL's elite.
Richardson is a 6'4", 244-pound athlete with 4.43-second 40-yard-dash speed and explosive qualities throughout his game as a runner and thrower. His natural arm talent is unequaled among his draft contemporaries.
Does he need more experience? Oh, absolutely. Will he need need to refine his mechanics? Definitely. Does he also present a rare ability to reach elite status if developed properly? 100 percent. The Carolina Panthers know this, and they have a choice to make.
"I've heard the same rumors everyone else has—that [Panthers head coach] Frank Reich loves Florida QB Anthony Richardson," NBC Sports' Peter King acknowledged.
King also questioned whether it would be the right move. But if a coach falls in love with a specific talent and wants to work with him and the prospect is worthy of the selection, the team should follow that path. Be all-in on the guy you believe in.
Granted, Stroud should still be considered the favorite for the top pick, especially after the Panthers' rather large contingent followed him everywhere during Ohio State's pro day. But Richardson is very much in the mix, and his selection may start the event with a bang.
TE: Darnell Washington over Michael Mayer
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Certain prospects just look different from even those who play the same position.
Case in point, Georgia's Darnell Washington and Notre Dame's Michael Mayer were brought out at the same time to participate in media spots at the NFL Scouting Combine while numerous other reporters watched them walk to their destinations.
In that moment, the realization occurred that Washington is unlike any other tight end from the 2023 class. Washington dwarfed Mayer, who measured in at 6'4 1/2" and 249 pounds. Whereas Washington is a gargantuan 6'7", 264-pound tight end.
A well-put together individual doesn't automatically equate to being a quality NFL prospect, though. In Washington's case, his size coupled with his athleticism and developing skill set make him a unique option in this year's class.
As big as the two-time national champion is, he's not a lumbering option by any means. As Pro Football Network's Kent Lee Platte noted, Washington posted the 15th-best relative athletic score among tight ends over the last 35 years.
He's tall with arms over 34 inches and 11-inch mitts attached at the end. His size and wingspan allow him to be a weapon even when he's covered.
Granted, Georgia didn't employ him quite as much in the passing game with only 38 receptions over the last two seasons. Although the Bulldogs roster features another elite tight end prospect in Brock Bowers, who could very well be a top-10 draft pick next year.
Washington primarily served as an inline blocker, where he brings value that other tight ends do not. Elite size, top-end athleticism and the ability to affect the game in both phases, along with significant untapped upside, make the other Georgia tight end a strong possibility to hear his name called earlier than expected.
OT: Broderick Jones over Peter Skoronski/Paris Johnson Jr.
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This year's offensive tackle class isn't considered as strong as those of previous years.
Last year, three offensive tackles heard their names called among the top-10 selections. In 2021, Penei Sewell was considered one of the best OT prospects of the last decade. Four different offensive tackles landed among the initial 13 selections of the '20 class.
The current crop might not have a single top-10 selection.
Depending on the franchise, Northwestern's Peter Skoronski may project as a guard or tackle. Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr. is generally considered the best pure tackle of the lot.
Georgia's Broderick Jones is very much in the mix, though.
"There are a lot of evaluators that believe Broderick Jones could be the first offensive tackle selected," ESPN's Jordan Reid tweeted.
He added: "Many pointed to his natural athleticism and still being in the early stages of his development (19 career starts). With NFL coaching, they believe that he has the potential to be a Day 1 starter that could experience lots of long-term success as a left tackle."
Jones is an absolute joy to watch when asked to pull out in space and lead the way for ball-carriers. His movements are effortless, whether he's pass-setting or asked to block laterally for a zone play. The high school basketball player in him shows up in these instances.
The biggest issues in Jones' game are technique-related. His footwork and hand placement could be more consistent. He's not a fully realized left tackle prospect. Professional coaching should help create consistently repeatable techniques to marry with his natural talents and make him an eventual Pro Bowl-caliber performer.
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DL: Tyree Wilson Over Jalen Carter
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A lot of groundwork needs to be covered with this projection.
Let's start with the positional designation. Georgia's Jalen Carter is a traditional defensive tackle, whereas Texas Tech's Tyree Wilson played as a base end and had the versatility to move up and down the line of scrimmage.
Bleacher Report's Scouting Department lists Wilson as a lineman instead of an edge-rusher. Some team will find ways to utilize the first-team All-Big 12 defender all over its front. His game won't be predicated on playing a wide-9 and blowing past offensive tackles with speed and flexibility.
To be crystal clear, Carter's no-contest plea to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing regarding a crash that killed two members of the Georgia football program has nothing to do with his potential slide.
The draft-related concern with the defensive lineman, who was the favorite to become the No. 1 pick when the Chicago Bears still held the selection, is his poor predraft performance. At Georgia's pro day, Carter showed up nine pounds heavier than at the NFL combine and couldn't finish his on-field workout, per ESPN's Mark Schlabach.
Unlike Carter, Wilson has been ascending.
His size (6'6", 271 lbs.), length (35⅝-inch arms) and versatility make him a fit in basically any scheme. Texas Tech used him along the interior. He lined up as a 5-technique. He even played off the edge in a two-point stance.
All the while, the All-American racked up 14 tackles for loss and seven sacks in 10 games before suffering a season-ending foot injury (he's expected to participate in the Red Raiders' pro day on Wednesday).
CB: Deonte Banks over Joey Porter Jr./Devon Witherspoon/Christian Gonzalez
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The first cornerback to be selected in April's draft remains a wide-open race, though Maryland's Deonte Banks has the furthest to rise among the top names.
B/R's Scouting Department ranks Penn State's Joey Porter Jr. as CB1. Other sites will likely have Oregon's Christian Gonzalez or Illinois' Devon Witherspoon atop the positional rankings. Any of the three could be the first selected once teams are on the clock.
Banks hasn't received quite the same attention, but he's a physical press corner with ideal athleticism.
Comparatively, Porter is a bigger, longer corner. Gonzalez is as well, with accompanying elite athletic traits. Witherspoon is smaller than all of them but is more fluid in coverage and fearless when asked to fly up from his spot.
But Banks' skill set serves as a baseline for all of them.
The Maryland prospect is not a small cornerback by any means at 6'0" and 197 pounds with 31⅜-inch arms. His relative athletic score places him in a rare category and above everyone mentioned. In coverage, Banks allowed 50 or more yards only once during his four years with the Terrapins, according to Pro Football Focus.
He can hold up against any wide receiver from the line of scrimmage all the way through the route. His eventual draft slotting really comes down to fit, as it does with the rest of these cornerbacks.
Porter and Gonzalez can be overly aggressive in their coverage, which could be problematic. Witherspoon doesn't have the same length, but he is most natural in coverage. Banks has the size, speed and coverage skill to easily become the top corner, as long as his next coaching staff believes he can become more patient and trusting in his technique.
S: Sydney Brown over Brian Branch
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The incoming crop of safeties is one of the weakest groups among the class. Those at the position didn't do themselves any favors when the vast majority underwhelmed at the combine.
There's a strong possibility that no safety hears his name called during the opening frame.
Alabama's Brian Branch is the most likely to do so, but interestingly, he is nominally a safety. He's a hybrid capable of playing all over a defense. In fact, he worked out as a cornerback in Indianapolis and will likely project as a nickel for some franchises.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with Branch's skill set. He's a modern defender in a positionless world where flexibility and comfort in multiple roles help the overall approach to slowing explosive offenses.
At the same time, a team may be looking for a different type of safety with the upside and athleticism to warrant an early look.
Illinois' Sydney Brown constantly played downhill with the ball in front of him. The defensive back finished third on the team with 40 solo tackles and tied for the third-most interceptions in the nation with six.
At the Senior Bowl, the first-team All-Big Ten selection showed he's capable in coverage by working over the slot and on tight ends. Brown also tested well enough for consideration over the likes of Branch.
The 5'10", 211-pound safety posted a relative athletic score over nine, while Branch barely cracked a six (on a scale of 10), per Pro Football Network's Kent Lee Platte. Brown brings sub-4.5-second speed with explosive traits. Among the top safeties, he's clearly the best all-around athlete, which will pique the interest of those in need of the position.
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