2023 World Baseball Classic Power Rankings for Final 8 Teams in WBC Quarterfinals
The 2023 World Baseball Classic started with 20 participants, spread out in four pools of five from which only two teams would advance to the quarterfinals. Real Thunderdome stuff.
Now that this part is over, it's time for a fresh power rankings of the eight survivors.
Because of some awkward scheduling, two quarterfinalists have already been eliminated and thus automatically qualified for the bottom spots. For the other six, our rankings were informed not only by how they've played so far, but also against who. The idea was to count down to the team that's truly proved its worth as an international colossus thus far.
Without further ado, let's get to ranking the best of who's left in the WBC.
8. Italy
1 of 8
Pool Play Record: 2-2
Pool Play Run Differential: Plus-3
Quarterfinal Matchup: Lost to Japan, 9-3
There were some "lucky to be here" vibes coming off Italy after it reached the quarterfinals despite a .500 record and a middling run differential and pool play.
Credit where it's due, though, Italy's two wins were against arguably the two best teams in Pool A. They opened with a 6-3 win over Cuba, a fellow quarterfinalist, and ended with a 7-1 win over a Netherlands squad anchored by Xander Bogaerts and Jonathan Schoop.
Primarily thanks to Kansas City Royals infielder Nicky Lopez (8-for-16) and Milwaukee Brewers prospect Sal Frelick (7-for-18), the Italian offense hit a solid .283 in pool play. The other side of the ball saw former New York Mets ace Matt Harvey re-emerge into the spotlight via seven one-run innings across two starts.
"Where's the power?" was nevertheless a fair question to ask of manager Mike Piazza's squad. Italy didn't hit even one ball over the fence in pool play, and Harvey's three strikeouts through seven innings are emblematic of the 26 strikeouts Italian hurlers collectively mustered over 36 innings.
The strikeouts (11 in eight innings) did actually come on Thursday against Japan, as did Italy's first home run courtesy of Dominic Fletcher. Unsurprisingly, however, it wasn't enough against a superior Japan team that also had the benefit of home-field advantage.
7. Australia
2 of 8
Pool Play Record: 3-1
Pool Play Run Differential: Plus-10
Quarterfinal Matchup: Lost to Cuba, 4-3
If it's any consolation to the team and everyone rooting for it at home and abroad, it would have been tempting to place Australia higher if these rankings could have come out earlier.
Save for a 7-1 loss to the juggernaut that is the Japan team, the Australians really did make an impression by winning their other three games in pool play by an average of 5.3 runs.
It was the offense that did the heavy lifting, specifically by way of the long ball. Only Korea topped the six home runs that Australia hit in pool play, with four coming courtesy of Milwaukee Brewers prospect Alex Hall and Kansas City Royals minor leaguer Robbie Glendinning.
The question with Australia was always how long its less-than-star-studded pitching staff would hold its own against the best offenses from around the world. Not long enough, as it turns out.
Though Australia's pitchers were never really hit hard, they were hit often in not even rising to the level of one strikeout per inning. That was arguably the difference in the squad's quarterfinal loss. Cuba's hurlers won the strikeout battle 10-4, while the offense drove home four runs despite collecting all of one extra-base hit.
6. Cuba
3 of 8
Pool Play Record: 2-2
Pool Play Run Differential: Plus-10
Quarterfinal Matchup: Beat Australia, 4-3
It remains easy to get distracted by who's not on Cuba's roster. There's no Yordan Álvarez, José Abreu or Randy Arozarena, and even Yoenis Céspedes is now out of the picture.
That Cuba is nonetheless still ticking says a lot about how it has gone about its business, especially on the offensive side.
It may only have two home runs as a team, but it is batting a sturdy .311. Along with Chicago White Sox star Yoán Moncada, Cuban luminaries Alfredo Despaigne and Yadil Mujica each boast a batting average that starts with a four and at least four runs batted in.
The Cuban pitching staff also has a secret weapon in right-hander Miguel Romero. He's pitched in four of the club's five games and given up just about nothing in allowing no runs on five hits, no walks and 12 strikeouts over 8.1 innings.
All the same, that pitiful pile of two long balls isn't the only reason to have doubts about Cuba. It has had it relatively easy so far, earning its three wins against teams that placed 15th (Panama), 12th (Taiwan) and 17th (Australia) in our initial rankings for the tournament.
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5. Mexico
4 of 8
Pool Play Record: 3-1
Pool Play Run Differential: Plus-13
Quarterfinal Matchup: vs. Puerto Rico
It wasn't without challenges that Mexico won three of its four games in pool play. It opened with a one-run loss to a relatively weak Colombian team, and barely held on for a one-run win over an even weaker club representing Great Britain.
Such things are easy to forgive, though, when a team takes on talent-rich clubs like the United States and Canada and whups 'em by final scores of 11-5 and 10-3.
The bats obviously came to play in those two games, specifically the ones belonging to Joey Meneses and Randy Arozarena. The former clubbed two home runs against Team USA, while the latter collected five of his WBC-leading nine runs batted in against Mexico. "Playoff Randy," it seems, doesn't care when the playoffs in question are happening.
It was nonetheless pitching that was supposed to be Mexico's primary strength, and that's proven reasonably true so far. The vaunted starting foursome of Julio Urías, Patrick Sandoval, Taijuan Walker and José Urquidy did their bit in racking up a collective 3.38 ERA with 21 strikeouts against four walks over 16 innings.
Lest any more light offensive days spell the team's doom, Mexico is going to need as much as it can get from those guys in the quarterfinals and (possibly) beyond.
4. Puerto Rico
5 of 8
Pool Play Record: 3-1
Pool Play Run Differential: Plus-18
Quarterfinal Matchup: vs. Mexico
Puerto Rico did have one slip-up in pool play, losing 9-6 to a Venezuela squad that went undefeated to end up atop Pool D. Pobody's nerfect, as they say.
Otherwise, all Puerto Rico did with its other three games was rout Nicaragua 9-1, pitch a danged "perfect" game in a 10-0 romp over Israel and beat the Dominican Republic, arguably the favorites to win the whole thing, 5-2 in a do-or-die game on Wednesday.
This was largely a case of Puerto Rico living up to its potential as a run prevention powerhouse. José De León was the main driver behind the aforementioned near-perfect game, while the defense and relief pitching were generally excellent in all four games.
It's a big blow, then, that Puerto Rico seems to have lost its closer. Upon closing out the Dominican Republic by striking out the side in the ninth, Edwin Díaz had to be helped off the field after he suffered a knee injury during the ensuing celebration.
This puts that much more pressure on an offense that was more good than great in pool play, achieving a .285 batting average but with only two home runs. For Puerto Rico to advance beyond the quarterfinals, Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez and Enrique Hernández are going to need more help carrying the lineup.
3. United States
6 of 8
Pool Play Record: 3-1
Pool Play Run Differential: Plus-10
Quarterfinal Matchup: vs. Venezuela
The United States came into this year's tournament as the defending World Baseball Classic champion from 2017 and with one of the best lineups anyone, anywhere has ever seen.
The USA is thus right where it should be right now, though there were some scares in getting to the quarterfinals. An 11-5 loss to Mexico in the club's second game temporarily derailed the train, and the USA was trailing a do-or-die tilt against Colombia going into the fifth inning.
But then, it was Mike Trout to the rescue with what turned out to be a game-winning single.
Trout's fingerprints are all over Team USA's progress, as he went 5-for-12 with a home run and six runs batted in in pool play. Nolan Arenado and Tim Anderson also had four RBI apiece to more or less help the offense live up to its reputation in posting an .847 OPS and 26 runs in the four games.
The pitching, however, always looked like a weakness and ultimately played as such out. The bullpen was fine, and Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn pitched well in their starts, but Nick Martinez and Merrill Kelly gave up five runs over 5.2 innings in theirs. That these are the best guys Team USA has to start games is—what's the word?—suboptimal.
It seems a reasonable conclusion that the USA will need even more offense to survive Venezuela in the quarterfinals, much less whoever comes after them.
2. Venezuela
7 of 8
Pool Play Record: 4-0
Pool Play Run Differential: Plus-14
Quarterfinal Matchup: vs. USA
Put it this way: Venezuela looked like one of the strongest teams in the field even before they went undefeated against the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua and Israel.
Lights-out pitching will do that for you. Venezuela hurlers boast a 2.00 ERA for the tournament so far, with 46 strikeouts and only one home run allowed in 36 innings. Pablo López, Martín Pérez and Jesús Luzardo have each put forth strong starts, while Luis Garcia electrified with seven strikeouts in three innings in relief against the Dominicans.
On the other side of the ball, it's mostly been The Anthony Santander and Salvador Perez Show, featuring Eugenio Suárez. The first two each boast slugging percentages north of 1.000, and all three have at least five RBI for the tournament.
It's a scary thought, then, that these aren't even the guys who are supposed to be carrying Venezuela's lineup. That's more so Ronald Acuña Jr. and Jose Altuve, so opposing pitchers could have a real nightmare on their hands if they flip their switches from "cold" to "hot."
In other words, this is an undefeated team that might not have peaked yet.
1. Japan
8 of 8
Pool Play Record: 4-0
Pool Play Run Differential: Plus-32
Quarterfinal Matchup: Beat Italy, 9-3
We had Japan ranked as the third-best team in the World Baseball Classic at the outset, while others had it as high as No. 2. It's thus not exactly surprising that it has made it as far as the quarterfinals.
But the way in which it did so...holy smokes.
Japan's average margin of victory as it ran the table in Pool B was eight runs, and that was basically equal parts great offense (i.e., 1.001 OPS) and great pitching (i.e., 1.50 ERA and 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings). It helps when you have the best baseball player in the world to contribute on both fronts, and Shohei Ohtani surely did so to earn MVP honors.
Pool play also served as a sort of coming-out party for St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar. He hit .429 with a pair of stolen bases, but it was as much with his glove and his pepper grinder celebration that he endeared himself to seamheads the world over.
As to other standouts, five of Kensuke Kondoh's seven hits went for extra bases, and Roki Sasaki and Yoshinobu Yamamoto each struck out eight batters in their respective starts. Sasaki, in particular, looked like a nightmare as he chucked triple-digit fastballs and low-90s splitters at hitters.
Kazuma Okamoto added his name to the star parade against Italy on Thursday, driving home five of Japan's nine runs. It's now on to the semifinals, where Japan will face perhaps its toughest test yet: a long flight from Tokyo to Miami, Florida.
Stats courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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