Ravens' Decision Not to Give Lamar Jackson Exclusive Tag Will Backfire

The franchise tag deadline came and went at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, and the biggest development is undoubtedly the Baltimore Ravens' decision to apply the non-exclusive franchise tag on quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Jackson is now free to negotiate with the league's other 31 teams, and should he sign an offer sheet, the Ravens can either match it or receive a pair of first-round picks as compensation.

It's a stunning move born of months of failed negotiations between the team and a star player representing himself and of an apparent belief by the Ravens that Jackson isn't worth what he's seeking on a new deal. It's a franchise-defining gamble.

And it's going to blow up in the Ravens' faces.

There was a time not that long ago when this falling-out seemed laughably far-fetched. Back in January, head coach John Harbaugh sounded like a man who absolutely expected Jackson to be the team's quarterback in 2023.

"One hundred percent, 200 percent," Harbaugh told reporters when asked if Jackson was still considered the franchise cornerstone. "There's no question about it. Lamar Jackson is our quarterback.

"… Everything we've done in terms of building our offense and building our team … is based on this incredible young man, his talent, his ability and his competitiveness. ... That's the kind of guys we want to build this team around—guys that love football and guys that love to compete."

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Even on Tuesday, general manager Eric DeCosta released a statement indicating that the Ravens still hope to have Jackson under center this season.

"Having not yet reached a long-term deal with Lamar Jackson, we will use the franchise tag. There have been many instances across the league and in Baltimore when a player has been designated with the franchise tag and signed a long-term deal that same year. We will continue to negotiate in good faith with Lamar, and we are hopeful that we can strike a long-term deal that is fair to both Lamar and the Ravens. Our ultimate goal is to build a championship team with Lamar Jackson leading the way for many years to come."

But in using the non-exclusive tag that will pay about $32.4 million as opposed to the exclusive rights tag (of about $45 million) that would have given Baltimore exclusive negotiating rights with Jackson, the Ravens have sent a message that they aren't confident that the gap in money between player and team can be bridged. Either that or they flat don't want to.

To be fair, that gap is allegedly large. There have long been reports that Jackson is seeking a fully guaranteed contract similar to the five-year, $230 million pact Deshaun Watson got from Cleveland last year (although Jackson's camp denied this, per ESPN's Stephen A. Smith).

Other reports have indicated that the two sides could be upward of $100 million apart in guarantees. In any event, it's a gulf large enough that DeCosta just opened the door and told Jackson, "Go see what you are worth on the open market, and then we'll talk some more."

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Now, some believe this to be a smart play. "Jackson has missed time," they say. "The Ravens can let the NFL set Jackson's market," they say. "And if he gets a monster offer, the Ravens get two firsts," they say.

Let's address those one at a time.

Yes, Jackson has missed five games with injuries in each of the past two seasons. But those injuries weren't identical, or even all that similar. Jackson's scrambles do lead to getting hit, but both those injuries occurred when he dropped back to throw.

Jackson is also a 26-year-old former NFL MVP, two-time Pro Bowler and the only quarterback in NFL history to record multiple 1,000-yard rushing seasons. In that MVP season in 2019, Jackson led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes. And it's fair to wonder how much better Jackson's passing numbers would be if his wide receivers hadn't consistently been a who's who of "who?"

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

When healthy, Jackson is arguably the most difficult player in the NFL to defend. He's 45-16 as a starter in the NFL. Over those past two "down" seasons, the Ravens were 15-9 in games Jackson started. They were 3-7 in games he didn't.

Jackson is a difference-maker at football's most important position and entering the prime of his career.

Demand for his services is going to be robust.

The Carolina Panthers were one of the finalists in the Watson sweepstakes last year and have cycled through a fistful of signal-callers in recent years. The Atlanta Falcons were in on Watson as well. The Las Vegas Raiders need a quarterback after sending Derek Carr packing. The Washington Commanders (who pursued Russell Wilson last year) and New York Jets both possess playoff-caliber rosters, save a massive hole under center.

Now, the Falcons, Panthers and Commanders have all been labeled as "not interested" in Jackson. But that doesn't mean they aren't.

That list isn't exhaustive. And it only takes one—one team convinced that Lamar Jackson could put them over the top. One team willing to give Jackson what he wants (or at least so much closer to what Jackson is seeking that the Ravens decide to pass).

No one thought Watson would get a fully guaranteed contract until he did. NFL teams that are desperate for a franchise quarterback will do desperate things. And while the league's owners may bristle at the idea of another player getting a fully guaranteed deal, it only takes one who just doesn't care.

Yes, the Ravens would receive two first-rounders in return if Jackson leaves. Yes, that's significant compensation.

But the Texans received three first-rounders and three other picks from the Browns for Watson, who hadn't played in a year, was facing a long personal-conduct suspension and was being sued by two dozen women for sexual misconduct and assault. The Seahawks got two firsts, two seconds, a fifth and three players for Russell Wilson and a fifth-rounder.

By most reasonable estimations, Jackson is a better player than both.

Not only that, but by not placing the exclusive rights tag on Jackson, the Ravens have lost any leverage about where Jackson goes. If the Commanders make a "Godfather" offer, the Ravens aren't getting Anthony Richardson or even Will Levis with the 16th pick—and that 2024 first likely won't be be higher.

Finally, while the NFL is a business (one that can be cold at times), there's also the matter of the personal impact of this decision. Whether accurate or not, the Ravens just gave Jackson the impression that in their mind, he not only isn't worth what he thinks but that they are also willing to watch him leave as a result. Even if the Ravens do match an offer for Jackson, there would be fences that won't easily be mended.

For better or worse, the Ravens probably won't have to worry about that. Here's the reality of what's going to happen. Some team is going to fall in love with the idea of Jackson leading the franchise to a Super Bowl. He's going to get an offer that pays well over $45 million a season. Most, if not all, will be guaranteed. If Tuesday's events were any indication, the Ravens will pass. Jackson will leave. And the Ravens will start over.

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Soon after that, Baltimore will realize that finding a Lamar Jackson twice is that much harder than doing it once. A perennial contender under Jackson will become the also-ran they were in the three seasons preceding Jackson's arrival.

And far too late, DeCosta will realize that a bird (or quarterback) in the hand is worth far more than two (first-rounders) in the bush.