Playoffs, Play-In or Lottery: Predictions for NBA's 2023 Bubble Teams
While teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets are asserting themselves as the alphas of the NBA, there exists a thin line between playoff participants and lottery contestants just a few spots below them.
For this exercise, we're looking at teams currently in the play-in tournament (seeds 7-10) and teams three games or fewer outside of it in either direction.
In the East, this includes the Brooklyn Nets, Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks, Toronto Raptors, Washington WIzards, Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers.
In the ultra-crowded West, this includes the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers.
With fewer than 20 games remaining in the 2022-23 regular season, here's where all 17 teams on the bubble should be expected to finish.
East Lottery: Bulls, Pacers
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Indiana Pacers
Current Standing: 29-36 overall, 11th in East (Lottery)
A surprisingly strong start to the year has fizzled of late, with Indiana now ranking just 27th overall in defense (121.5 rating) since the trade deadline.
Currently sitting 1.5 games behind the Washington Wizards for the final play-in spot and needing to fight off the Chicago Bulls in the process, the Pacers should be looking forward to some draft lottery luck now instead.
Chicago Bulls
Current Standing: 29-36 overall, 12th in East (Lottery)
Effectively swapping Goran Dragić for Patrick Beverley isn't going to do enough to jump the Bulls into the play-in tournament, as the latter is averaging 4.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists and shooting 43.5 percent overall in his first six games in Chicago.
This is a team that needed to make a splash at the trade deadline and has gone just 3-8 since Feb. 9. With no more reinforcements coming and with Lonzo Ball officially ruled out for the year, this has become a lost season for the Bulls.
East Play-In Tournament: Nets, Hawks, Raptors and Wizards
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Brooklyn Nets
Current Standing: 36-28 overall, Sixth in East (Playoffs)
There's a lot of talent still left after Sean Marks blew up the roster at the trade deadline, and Brooklyn did shock the league with an NBA-high 28-point comeback in Boston to beat the Celtics just last week.
So why the demotion here?
Since the deadline, Brooklyn possesses the fifth-worst net rating in the NBA (minus-6.5), even worse than the tanking Detroit Pistons, who are just 1-7 over this stretch.
This will be one of the most interesting teams to monitor in the offseason with a real building block in Mikal Bridges. For now, however, the Nets will fall out of the top-six seeds and into the play-in tournament.
Atlanta Hawks
Current Standing: 32-32 overall, Eighth in East (Play-In)
Quin Snyder is just 1-2 since taking over the Hawks, although his previous success with the Utah Jazz and getting the most out of a dynamic young guard should bode well for the rest of this season and beyond in Atlanta.
The Hawks' offense has been better of late (fifth-best in the NBA since the trade deadline), resembling the high-power attack of last season. Saddiq Bey looks like a good pickup as well, averaging 11.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and shooting 50.0 percent from three in his first seven games in Atlanta.
With defensive questions continuing to surround this team trying to adjust between head coaches on the fly, the Hawks simply don't have enough time to climb back into the East playoffs, however.
Toronto Raptors
Current Standing: 32-33 overall, Ninth in East (Play-In)
One of the most underachieving teams of the 2022-23 season, Toronto's decision to keep the band together at the trade deadline has only produced mild results.
A 6-3 record is admirable, but the Raptors still possess a negative net rating (minus-1.1) and appear far too stagnant offensively for stretches.
Jakob Poeltl was a good pickup (15.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.9 steals, 1.8 blocks, 76.0 percent shooting in nine games), but it's far more important this team gets a good Fred VanVleet down the stretch. The 29-year-old is shooting 37.7 percent from three in wins this season, yet just 30.3 percent in losses.
Washington Wizards
Current Standing: 30-34 overall, 10th in East (Play-In)
The team most in danger of getting jumped by the Chicago Bulls has actually gotten better with some recent subtractions.
By trading Rui Hachimura in late January and waiving Will Barton, Washington has cleared out some of their logjam at forward while going bigger with a frontline of Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porziņģis and Daniel Gafford.
The Wizards are 10-8 overall since trading Hachimura with a positive net rating (plus-1.5) in the process. This isn't a great team by any means, but it is good enough to hold off a potential push by the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers.
East Playoffs: Heat
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Miami Heat
Current Standing: 34-31 overall, 7th in East (Play-In)
It's been an ugly season in Miami after finishing with the No. 1 seed just a year ago, but the Heat still sit just two games behind the Brooklyn Nets for the sixth seed and a guaranteed spot in the playoffs.
Betting on Miami to jump Brooklyn is as much a vote of confidence in Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and others as it is a belief that the new-look Nets will continue to struggle over the final 18-ish games.
Getting Kevin Love was a nice pickup, even if he's probably best suited as a reserve and not the starting power role Erik Spoelstra currently has him penciled in at. Still, Miami is winning Love's minutes (plus-3.0 net rating in 272 total possessions), even without him shooting the ball well yet (25.8 percent from three).
There's still a hope (perhaps a foolish one) that Kyle Lowry can return after missing the last month with knee soreness. Lowry needed some time off after averaging 33.3 minutes a night this season while showing a significant slip in play. Now just weeks away from his 37th birthday, there's a chance Lowry looks better than ever whenever he can make his return to the court.
With Love giving Miami another veteran with playoff experience, look for the Heat to claim the final playoff spot in the East.
West Lottery: Jazz, Trail Blazers and Thunder
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Utah Jazz
Current Standing: 31-34 overall, 10th in West (Play-In)
The Jazz have remained surprisingly resilient even after trading Mike Conley Jr., Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt at the deadline, going 4-5 overall.
Still, a minus-3.4 net rating combined with a now-stagnant offense will see Utah finally fall into the lottery, a place that will ultimately help with their future success.
Don't be surprised if there are a lot of "load management" days for Utah's best players down the stretch, as this is a team that should now be recommitted to a rebuild after trading even more talent at the deadline.
Portland Trail Blazers
Current Standing: 30-34 overall, 13th in West (Lottery)
Shockingly, trading a veteran in Josh Hart for some young wings in Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle at the deadline hasn't helped the Blazers win ball games.
Portland is just 3-6 overall since Feb. 9 with a defense that ranks dead last in the NBA (124.6 rating).
Changes better be coming this offseason, as last year's reset clearly wasn't enough.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Standing: 30-34 overall, 12th in West (Lottery)
As fun as a Thunder-Los Angeles Clippers matchup would be in the play-in tournament, OKC is still a year away from making any postseason noise.
This young group isn't going to lose on purpose, of course, but there could be a lot of rest days coming for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and others as the Thunder chase one last high draft pick to add to an already impressive core.
One of the better NBA teams over the past few months, this is going to quickly become one of the most dangerous franchises over the next decade.
Just not this year.
West Play-in Tournament: Timberwolves, Clippers, Pelicans and Lakers
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Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Standing: 34-32 overall, Sixth in West (Playoffs)
Kudos to Minnesota for being a top-six seed to this point, considering Karl-Anthony Towns hasn't played since November with a strained calf muscle.
The Wolves have won some critical games as of late, beating the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings for a mini-winning streak. Mike Conley Jr. is solidifying himself as the steady point guard this team has needed, averaging 14.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.0 steals and shooting 42.1 percent from three over this stretch.
The Wolves may not have enough juice without Towns to jump into the playoffs, but they shouldn't fall past the seventh seed either.
Los Angeles Clippers
Current Standing: 34-33 overall, Eighth in West (Play-In)
Think the Clippers are regretting the Russell Westbrook signing yet?
This Los Angeles team is now 1-5 with Westbrook, as the veteran guard has started all six contests and is getting a healthy 31.7 minutes a game.
After looking destined to finish in the top six, the Clippers should already be considering all options with Westbrook (sixth-man role, release) to stop the bleeding and at least stay in the play-in picture.
New Orleans Pelicans
Current Standing: 31-33 overall, Ninth in West (Play-In)
Injuries continue to haunt the Pelicans, not just with Zion Williamson, but key role players like José Alvarado and Larry Nance Jr. recently as well.
When fully healthy, this is still one of the best teams in the West. As currently constructed, however, New Orleans is in real danger of falling into the lottery.
A 2-6 record since the trade deadline and a minus-7.8 net rating are extremely concerning. Playing the NBA's fourth-easiest schedule the rest of the way will help keep the Pelicans in the top 10 spots, however.
Los Angeles Lakers
Current Standing: 31-34 overall, 11th in West (Lottery)
Yes, LeBron James is expected to miss multiple weeks with a foot injury, but this isn't the death sentence for the Lakers that it would have been a month ago.
Thanks to the trade deadline additions of D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Mo Bamba and Rui Hachimura, combined with the subtraction of Russell Westbrook, this is a much improved L.A. roster from the beginning of the season.
If Anthony Davis is healthy, he's still a No. 1 scoring option who can hold a defense together as well. With the Utah Jazz punting on the season following their deadline trade, the Lakers will move into the final play-in spot.
West Playoffs: Suns, Warriors and Mavericks
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Phoenix Suns
Current Standing: 36-29 overall, Fourth in West (Playoffs)
It seems silly to even question the Suns' playoff chances here after the addition of Kevin Durant, yet Phoenix sits just three games ahead of the seventh-seeded Dallas Mavericks.
Still, if everyone's healthy, this is now arguably the best team in all of basketball that's off to a 3-0 start with Durant in the lineup.
Devin Booker hasn't had to take a step back at all offensively thus far, and there are enough quality role players on this roster to make a run to the Finals.
With all the issues surrounding the Memphis Grizzlies, it's possible that Phoenix can actually get to the No. 2 seed before the regular season comes to a close.
Golden State Warriors
Current Standing: 34-31 overall, Fifth in West (Playoffs)
Someone should have killed the Warriors while they had the chance.
Golden State has a strong net rating (plus-4.8) following the trade deadline dump of James Wiseman, just got Stephen Curry back from a leg injury and could have Gary Payton II in the rotation before the end of the regular season.
If the Warriors can put their road woes behind them, this is a team that should still strike fear into the hearts of the rest of the league. Consider them a playoff lock at this point, despite being just a game ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 7 seed.
Dallas Mavericks
Current Standing: 33-32 overall, Seventh in West (Play-In)
A close loss to the Phoenix Suns has at least momentarily knocked Dallas back into the play-in tournament. Don't expect them to be there for long, however.
The Mavs have a sparkling net rating of plus-10.0 (95th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass) when Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving play together, a terrific sign that this early partnership is working.
There are defensive questions to be answered, but getting Maxi Kleber back is a huge boost to this frontcourt on both ends. The Mavericks aren't one of the elite teams in the West, but they are good enough to be a top-six seed.
