2012 March Madness Field of 68 Projections: Jan. 2

As we flip the calendar to the new year, things get serious in the world of college basketball. Conference play is in full swing and we can really start to dive into the RPI to see where teams would be seeded if the NCAA tournament began today.

As always, I am not trying to guess how teams will finish the year. I am simply seeding them based on their current résumés.

I like to break teams down into three categories:

1. Wallflowers are bubble teams because everyone wants to go to the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor.

2. Elite teams that are safely in the field are dancing with a hottie.

3. In the middle are the schools that are dancing with their sister.

Last year, I had the most accurate bracket projections in the country, correctly predicting 67 of 68 teams and once again finishing way ahead of ESPN's Joe Lunardi.

I'll begin with the two First Four at-large bid games:

(12a) Minnesota vs. (12d) Virginia Tech

(12b) Missouri State vs. (12c) Temple

First Eight Teams Out: Saint Joseph's, Pittsburgh, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Iowa State, Indiana State

The projections are presented in slideshow format, with slides consisting of the major conferences. First up is the ACC...

ACC (6)

Dancing with a Hottie: Duke (No. 1 seed), North Carolina (No. 2)

Wallflowers: Virginia (No. 10), North Carolina State (No. 10), Florida State (No. 11), Virginia Tech (No. 12d)

Virginia keeps winning, but isn't exactly helping its cause by playing three consecutive games against teams ranked below 280 in the RPI. The Cavs even struggled in two of those contests against Seattle and Towson, while watching their strength of schedule plummet to 253.

Florida State took a major step back with a home loss to Princeton on Friday. The Seminoles have lost five of eight and are 0-4 against the Top 50.

Virginia Tech sneaks into the field with a nice road win at Oklahoma State. The Hokies have won six in a row and don't have any losses to teams ranked outside the Top 32 in the RPI.

Big East (7)

Dancing with a Hottie: Syracuse (No. 1), UConn (No. 3), Georgetown (No. 3), Louisville (No. 3), Marquette (No. 4)

Dancing with Their Sister: Seton Hall (No. 5), West Virginia (No. 6)

Wallflowers: Pittsburgh (second team out)

Georgetown picked up its second road win over an RPI Top 25 team on Wednesday, when it took down Louisville. The surprising Hoyas have reeled off nine in a row against Division I competition and are 4-1 versus the Top 50.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, had a rough week, falling to not only Georgetown, but also in-state rival Kentucky. Neither of those are bad losses, but Louisville lacks a real signature win thus far.

The same can be said about Marquette, which counts a pair of victories over Norfolk State as its only Top 50 victories so far. The Eagles were embarrassed at home by Vanderbilt on Thursday and are coming back down to earth after a 10-0 start.

Is a No. 5 seed too high for Seton Hall? I don't think so. The 12-2 Pirates bounced back from a 26-point loss at the Carrier Dome to dominate a good West Virginia team, 67-48, on Friday. That was the Pirates' third win over a Top 50 opponent, adding to a neutral-court victory over St. Joe's and a road triumph at Dayton.

And The Hall's computer numbers are outstanding (RPI 4, SOS 13). We will really find out how good the Pirates are when they host Connecticut on Tuesday.

This should teach you a thing or two about the significance of the national polls. Pittsburgh, which was ranked 22nd last week, is not in my field. The Panthers have dropped three straight—two at home—to Wagner, Notre Dame and Cincinnati. Pitt's computer numbers are abysmal (RPI 81, SOS 114) and its best wins are over Robert Morris and Oklahoma State.

Big Ten (9)

Dancing with a Hottie: Michigan State (No. 2), Indiana (No. 2), Ohio State (No. 2)

Dancing with Their Sister: Wisconsin (No. 6), Illinois (No. 7), Michigan (No. 8)

Wallflowers: Purdue (No. 9), Northwestern (No. 9), Minnesota (No. 12a)

Ohio State dropped from the top line for the first time this season after a loss at Indiana on Saturday. The Buckeyes are now 1-2 on the road.

The Hoosiers, meanwhile, may finally start getting the respect they deserve after knocking off their second Top Two team, but Indiana isn't a No. 1 seed because it fell from the ranks of the unbeatens last week with a loss at Michigan State. The Spartans have won 12 in a row against Division I opponents and have made this a three-team race in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin took a major hit with a home loss to Iowa on Saturday. The Badgers' computer numbers are mediocre at best (RPI 52, SOS 75) and they are just 1-2 against the Top 50.

Illinois also moved backwards with a 15-point loss at Purdue. The Illini have dropped three of five since starting 10-0.

Big 12 (5)

Dancing with a Hottie: Baylor (No. 1), Missouri (No. 3), Kansas (No. 4)

Dancing with their Sister: Kansas State (No. 5)

Wallflowers: Texas (No. 11), Iowa State (seventh team out)

Welcome to the top line, Baylor. With Ohio State and Louisville going down last week, a spot opened up and the undefeated Bears walked on in with a nice win over Mississippi State at the Dallas Showcase. Baylor is ranked fifth in the RPI and has Top 50 victories over San Diego State, Northwestern, Saint Mary's and West Virginia. Only one of those four wins came at home.

Missouri is also one of four remaining unbeatens in the country, but the Tigers haven't really been tested so far with the 257th-ranked strength of schedule and just three games against the Top 100. We'll know more after a trip to Manhattan, Kansas on Saturday.

Iowa State enters the picture with five straight wins, but the 10-3 Cyclones will need more than just one Top 100 win to get into the field. ISU will have plenty of chances to impress as it opens its Big 12 slate against Texas on Wednesday.

Oklahoma's one-point loss at Cincinnati on Thursday put a damper on its Big Dance hopes. The Sooners have two chances to pick up their first Top 50 win as they play Missouri and Kansas this week.

Pac-12 (3)

Wallflowers: Stanford (No. 8), California (No. 10), Arizona (No. 10)

There isn't much to say about the Pac-12 right now. Stanford, Cal and Arizona each held serve last week to open conference play, but the league as a whole is ranked ninth in the RPI behind the Mountain West, Missouri Valley and Atlantic 10.

SEC (5)

Dancing with a Hottie: Kentucky (No. 1)

Dancing with Their Sister: Alabama (No. 5), Vanderbilt (No. 7), Mississippi State (No. 7), Florida (No. 7)

Wallflowers: Ole Miss (fifth team out)

Kentucky is back on the top line after a win over Louisville and without another road contest at a Top 100 team until Jan. 28 against LSU, the Wildcats should remain a No. 1 seed for at least another four weeks.

Vandy moves up a few spots with a dominating effort at Marquette on Thursday. The 'Dores are 3-1 against Top 50 competition, but have been less than impressive against mediocre teams.

Florida suffered the biggest hit of any team in the field last week, when it lost in double-overtime to Mike Rice's upstart Rutgers team at the RAC. The Gators now have as many losses to sub-200 competition as they do wins over the Top 50. It's time to get them out of the Top 25, pollsters.

Mountain West (2)

Dancing with a Hottie: UNLV (No. 4)

Dancing with Their Sister: San Diego State (No. 8)

Wallflowers: New Mexico (fourth team out)

New Mexico threw its hat in the ring with a nice win over Saint Louis on New Year's Eve. The Lobos have won 10 in a row, but remain on the outside looking in because they don't have a Top 50 win and their 125th-ranked strength of schedule leaves something to be desired. UNM will get a chance Jan. 18 against San Diego State.

Missouri Valley (3)

Dancing with Their Sister: Creighton (No. 8)

Wallflowers: Wichita State (No. 9), Missouri State (No. 12b), Northern Iowa (third team out), Indiana State (eighth team out)

MVC league play kicked into high gear last week with Missouri State beating Creighton, and the Bluejays rebounding to defeat Wichita State.

The Bears' win at Creighton got them into the field, despite an 8-5 record. Missouri State has a respectable strength of schedule of 38 and doesn't have any sub-100 losses.

Things weren't as good for Northern Iowa and Indiana State last week as they both fell out of the field. The Panthers ran their losing streak to three with consecutive losses to Illinois State and Evansville, while the Sycamores fell at Drake.

Atlantic 10 (3)

Dancing with Their Sister: Xavier (No. 6)

Wallflowers: Dayton (No. 11), Temple (No. 12c), Saint Joseph's (first team out), Saint Louis (sixth team out)

Dayton scored a big Wallflower win by beating Ole Miss, 62-50, on Friday. The Flyers have very good computer numbers (RPI 35, SOS 16) and are 2-2 against the RPI Top 25.

Saint Louis falls from the field with a loss at New Mexico. The Billikens' strength of schedule is ranked a dismal 212th and they lack a win over the Top 50 thanks to the loss in value of victories over Washington and Villanova.

Other Conferences (8)

Dancing with Their Sister: Murray State (No. 4), Gonzaga (No. 5), Harvard (No. 6)

Wallflowers: Memphis (No. 9), UCF (No. 11), Cleveland State (No. 11), Southern Miss (No. 12), Saint Mary's (No. 12)

Gonzaga moves up a line with a win at Xavier. The Bulldogs have reeled off six straight to climb to seventh in the RPI.

Saint Mary's moves into the field after picking up its third consecutive win. The Gaels' win over Missouri State last month has increased in value and they picked up a Top 65 victory over BYU on Thursday.

Marshall loses its spot on this list after losses to Belmont and Akron last week.

Automatic Bids

No. 13 seeds: Iona, Ohio, Davidson, Norfolk State

No. 14 seeds: Lamar, Cleveland State, Belmont, VCU

No. 15 seeds: Robert Morris, Middle Tennessee, South Dakota State, Nevada

No. 16 seeds: Lehigh, Weber State, Coastal Carolina vs. Albany, Prairie View A&M vs. Cal State Fullerton

Jordan is one of Bleacher Report's College Basketball Featured Columnists. Follow him on Twitter @ JordanHarrison.