Every MLB Team's Top Prospect on the Opening Day Roster Bubble
Spring training is here, and among other things that means roster battles across baseball as teams look to trim their rosters to 26 players ahead of Opening Day.
Many of the players locked in those battles are prospects, and we saw a renewed willingness to put elite-level up-and-comers on the Opening Day roster last year when Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Spencer Torkelson, CJ Abrams, Spencer Strider, Bryson Stott, Hunter Greene and several other marquee prospects broke camp with a roster spot.
Ahead we've taken a closer look at each team's top prospects who enter the preseason squarely on the roster bubble. For this debate, prospects who appear to be a lock for the Opening Day roster like Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Triston Casas (BOS), Miguel Vargas (LAD), Corbin Carroll (ARI) were excluded from the conversation.
Instead, the focus was on guys who will be legitimately competing for a chance to start the season with the big league club.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Infielder Gunnar Henderson is a lock for the Opening Day roster, so instead, we'll focus on Rodriguez.
The 23-year-old has been overpowering every step of the way in the minors, including a 2.20 ERA and a 97-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69.2 innings at Triple-A last season before he was sidelined with a lat strain. He will be given every opportunity to fill the No. 5 starter role behind Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer.
Boston Red Sox: RHP Bryan Mata
Triston Casas is comfortably off the bubble and penciled into the starting first base job for Opening Day, but he is not the only rookie who could break camp with the Red Sox.
Mata, 23, missed all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he returned strong last season with a 2.49 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 83 innings over four minor league levels. His fastball-slider pairing would play up out of the bullpen, and a strong spring could land him a multi-inning relief role.
New York Yankees: SS Oswald Peraza
What happens if Peraza struggles at the plate this spring, or Isiah Kiner-Falefa puts together a terrific preseason?
Most have assumed that Peraza will break camp as the starting shortstop after his strong debut as a September call-up, but with only 18 games of MLB experience under his belt, he still needs to prove himself. The 22-year-old could start the year at Triple-A alongside double-play partner of the future Anthony Volpe.
Tampa Bay Rays: 3B Curtis Mead
The under-the-radar deal that sent left-hander Cristopher Sánchez to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for Mead prior to the 2020 season could go down as the latest Rays heist.
Mead, 22, has little left to prove in the minors after hitting .298/.390/.532 with 27 doubles, 13 home runs and 50 RBI in 76 games in the upper minors last year. He has played primarily third base, and he has a relatively clear path to the starting job if he can put together a strong spring.
Toronto Blue Jays: 1B/OF Spencer Horwitz
Horowitz hit .275/.391/.452 with 33 doubles, 12 home runs and 51 RBI in 114 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season while seeing time at first base and in left field.
The 25-year-old would add another left-handed bat to the roster, and he'll compete with 28-year-old rookie Nathan Lukes for the fourth outfielder job unless another outside addition is made before Opening Day.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: OF Oscar Colás
"Oscar Colás is going to be given every opportunity to see if he can become our right fielder on a daily basis," new White Sox manager Pedro Grifol told 670 The Score in January.
The White Sox have not been shy about putting top prospects on the Opening Day roster in the past, with both Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez winning a roster spot before making their MLB debut. Colás will need to beat out Gavin Sheets to win the starting gig.
Cleveland Guardians: C Bo Naylor
The Guardians signed veteran Mike Zunino to a one-year, $6 million deal to replace departed free agent Austin Hedges, but Naylor remains the catcher of the future in Cleveland.
The 22-year-old posted a .889 OPS with 21 home runs and 20 steals in a breakout offensive season last year before making his MLB debut on Oct. 1. Despite his success at the plate, the front office might prefer to send him back to Triple-A where he can catch work on his defensive game while Bryan Lavastida or non-roster invitees Zack Collins or Cam Gallagher serve as the backup.
Detroit Tigers: IF Ryan Kreidler
Who is going to play third base for the Tigers?
Nick Maton, Tyler Nevin, Matt Vierling and non-roster invitee César Hernández are all potential candidates, while Kreidler is also in the mix despite playing primarily shortstop in the minors. The 25-year-old has shown a steady glove and good power in the minors, but he hit just .178/.244/.233 for a 41 OPS+ in 84 plate appearances as a September call-up.
Kansas City Royals: SS Maikel Garcia
The Royals seem set on using Bobby Witt Jr. as the everyday shortstop, but what happens if Hunter Dozier continues to struggle offensively?
The team's best move if Dozier fails to bounce back would be to shift Witt to the hot corner and use Garcia at shortstop. The 22-year-old is a far superior defender up the middle, and he hit .285/.359/.427 with 46 extra-base hits in the upper minors last year while also going 7-for-22 during a brief MLB promotion in late July.
Minnesota Twins: RHP Louie Varland
With a locked-in five-man rotation and promising young arms like Bailey Ober, Josh Winder and Simeon Woods Richardson waiting in the wings as depth, the Twins could opt to use someone like Varland in a long relief role at the MLB level.
The 25-year-old had a 3.06 ERA and 146 strikeouts in 126.1 innings in the upper minors last season, and he also held his own in five spots starts in the majors with a 3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 26 innings.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: C Yainer Diaz and C Korey Lee
Whether he wins a spot in the starting rotation or starts the year in the bullpen, right-hander Hunter Brown looks like a lock for the Opening Day roster.
The more compelling prospect storyline will be who wins the backup catcher job between Diaz and Lee, as both players rank among the team's top prospects. Diaz might have the upper hand after hitting .306/.356/.542 with 22 doubles, 25 home runs and 96 RBI in the minors last year, though Lee is the better defensive option.
Los Angeles Angels: RHP Ben Joyce
All signs point to Logan O'Hoppe starting the season with at least a platoon share of the starting catcher job, so there is not much suspense on whether he will be part of the Opening Day roster.
Instead, let's turn our attention to Joyce, who made a name for himself last spring lighting up radar guns at the University of Tennessee. He made his pro debut at Double-A after going in the third round of the 2022 draft, posting a 2.08 ERA and 13.8 K/9 in 13 appearances to potentially put himself on the fast track to the majors.
Oakland Athletics: OF Esteury Ruiz
Former top prospect Cristian Pache is out of minor league options, so he will be given every chance to win the starting center field job this spring.
His biggest competition could be Ruiz, who led the minors with 85 steals in 114 games last season while hitting .332/.447/.526 with 66 extra-base hits. The 24-year-old has been traded twice in the past year, but he could find an everyday home in the Oakland outfield.
Seattle Mariners: RHP Chris Clarke
A Rule 5 selection out of the Chicago Cubs organization, Clarke went 10-6 with a 4.64 ERA and a 110-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 120.1 innings last season.
The 24-year-old will need to win a spot on the Opening Day roster or be returned to the Cubs system, and it will take a strong spring for him to earn a spot in a Seattle bullpen that was among the best in baseball a year ago.
Texas Rangers: RHP Ricky Vanasco
Barring injury, top prospect Josh Jung will be the everyday third baseman for the Rangers in 2023, so he is comfortably off the roster bubble. If there is going to be a surprise prospect who breaks camp on the MLB roster, the bullpen is the most likely spot.
Vanasco has late-inning stuff with a fastball that has touched 99 mph and a hammer curveball, and his lack of a viable third offering is also a hindrance to his development as a starter. The 24-year-old had 4.68 ERA with 118 strikeouts in 92.1 innings between High-A and Double-A last season, and a shift to the bullpen could make him an immediate contributor.
.png?w=256)
National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: RHP Victor Vodnik
The health and effectiveness of Kirby Yates and Nick Anderson will significantly impact Atlanta's Opening Day bullpen, and if one of them does not look ready to fill a late-inning role the Braves could go with a younger arm.
Vodnik was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, but he stayed put after posting a 2.34 ERA and 12.2 K/9 in 31 appearances in the upper minors last year. His command can be spotty, but his fastball bumps 100 mph and he backs it with a swing-and-miss changeup, so a strong spring could open enough eyes to win him a roster spot.
Miami Marlins: IF Jordan Groshans
Groshans ranked inside the top 50 on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list prior to the 2020 (No. 29) and 2021 (No. 34) seasons, but injuries and a disappointing season at Triple-A last year hurt his stock and he was traded from Toronto to Miami at the deadline.
Still only 23 years old, he is one of the leading candidates for the utility infield job this spring, and he could potentially see semi-regular playing time backing up second baseman Luis Arraez, shortstop Joey Wendle and third baseman Jean Segura.
New York Mets: 3B Brett Baty
With free-agent addition Omar Narváez joining incumbent Tomás Nido behind the plate, it looks like top prospect Francisco Álvarez is headed back to Triple-A to work on his defense to begin the 2023 season.
Baty could also use further development on the defensive side of things, but he has a better chance of pushing his way onto the Opening Day roster. Veteran Eduardo Escobar finished the 2022 season on a high note and he is under contract for $9.5 million in 2023, but he can play all over the infield and could easily shift to a super-utility role if Baty is deemed ready.
Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Andrew Painter
"A lot of it will be dependent upon how he handles it in spring training, but I think he's got a reasonable chance to make the big league club," Phillies team president Dave Dombrowski told reporters regarding Painter in January.
It's a bit surprising considering he won't turn 20 years old until April 10, but it's hard to argue with the results after he posted a 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 155 strikeouts in 103.2 innings over three minor league levels. He'll compete with Bailey Falter.
Washington Nationals: RHP Thad Ward
The Nationals plucked Ward from the Boston Red Sox system with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 Rule 5 draft, so he will need to win a spot on the Opening Day roster and stay there all season or he'll be returned to his old club.
The 26-year-old has a 2.53 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 261 strikeouts in 216.2 innings since going in the fifth round of the 2018 draft, and he threw the ball well in the Arizona Fall League to close out his 2022 campaign. He pitches off a sinker-slider combo that generates a ton of groundballs, and he could be a valuable multi-inning weapon out of a frequently used bullpen.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: 1B Matt Mervis
Mervis looked like the potential everyday first baseman going into the offseason, but after Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer were both added in free agency his path to a spot on the Opening Day roster is now blocked.
The 24-year-old hit .309/.379/.606 with 40 doubles, 36 home runs and 119 RBI last season, and he capped off his 2022 campaign with a .914 OPS and six more long balls in the Arizona Fall League. If he outperforms Hosmer this spring, the Cubs could simply cut the veteran loose since he's making the prorated league-minimum.
Cincinnati Reds: LHP Brandon Williamson
The Reds broke camp with Hunter Greene on the Opening Day roster and Nick Lodolo tabbed for the No. 5 starter role once it was needed, so there is some recent precedent for top pitching prospects earning a roster spot during the spring.
Williamson, 24, had a 4.11 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 122.2 innings in the upper minors last season, though he also walked 77 batters for a 5.6 BB/9 rate. If he shows improved command, he has the swing-and-miss stuff to be an impact starter. The assumption here is that Spencer Steer is a lock for the roster as the starting third baseman, so he was not included in this conversation.
Milwaukee Brewers: 2B Brice Turang
Turang hit .286/.360/.412 with 24 doubles, 13 home runs, 78 RBI, 89 runs scored and 34 steals in 36 attempts in 131 games at Triple-A Nashville last season.
That should be enough to put him squarely in the mix for the starting second base job this spring, though a lot will depend on where the team plans to use Luis Urías. If Brian Anderson seizes the starting third base job, Urías will likely shift to second base and Turang could find himself back at Triple-A.
Pittsburgh Pirates: IF Ji Hwan Bae
The Pirates have some intriguing arms knocking on the door, including Luis Ortiz and Mike Burrows, but odds are they will go with a rotation of Rich Hill, Roansy Contreras, Mitch Keller, Vince Velasquez and JT Brubaker to open the year.
Meanwhile, second base will be a battle to watch, with Rodolfo Castro the favorite to win the starting job after posting a 102 OPS+ with 11 home runs in 71 games last year. His power potential is intriguing, but don't sleep on Bae who went 11-for-33 with three doubles as a September call-up and provides a ton of versatility.
St. Louis Cardinals: OF Jordan Walker
Walker is the type of prospect who could simply force his way onto the Opening Day roster, similar to Julio Rodríguez a year ago.
The imposing 6'5", 220-pound slugger was drafted as a third baseman, but with Nolan Arenado blocking his path he played primarily corner outfield over the final two months of the 2022 season. The 20-year-old hit .306/.388/.510 with 31 doubles, 19 home runs and 68 RBI in 119 games at Double-A, and he'll be competing for playing time in left field and at designated hitter.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Ryne Nelson and RHP Drey Jameson
The first four spots in the D-backs rotation are set with Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies, leaving a handful of rookies in the mix to compete for the No. 5 starter job.
Nelson (3 GS, 1.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 18.1 IP) and Jameson (4 GS, 1.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 24.1 IP) both impressed in a brief September audition and appear to be the leading candidates. Meanwhile, top pitching prospect Brandon Pfaadt has the highest ceiling of the group and could also be a factor despite not yet making his MLB debut.
Colorado Rockies: IF/OF Nolan Jones
Jones was a top-50 prospect prior to the 2020 (No. 50) and 2021 (No. 45) seasons, but his in-game power has been slow to develop and the Guardians turned the page this offseason when he was traded to Colorado for infielder Juan Brito.
Despite his middling power production and limited defensive profile, he still offers some intriguing upside thanks to his on-base ability. The 24-year-old has a .394 on-base percentage and 16.2 percent walk rate over six minor league seasons, and sports hernia surgery for Randall Grichuk could open the door for him to land a regular role.
Los Angeles Dodgers: OF James Outman
Infielder Miguel Vargas is one of the NL Rookie of the Year front-runners, while others like Michael Busch, Bobby Miller and Michael Grove could make an impact before the 2023 season is over, but it's Outman who resides squarely on the roster bubble.
The 25-year-old hit .294/.393/.586 with 31 doubles, 31 home runs and 106 RBI in 125 games last year, and he has the defensive tools to be a solid everyday center fielder. He'll compete with Trayce Thompson, Chris Taylor, David Peralta and non-roster invitees Jason Heyward, Bradley Zimmer, Steven Duggar for playing time in the outfield.
San Diego Padres: IF Eguy Rosario
Slugger Brandon Dixon and outfielder José Azocar are the front-runners to round out the San Diego bench alongside catcher Luis Campusano and fourth outfielder Adam Engel, but Rosario has a chance to crash the party.
While splitting his time evenly between second base, shortstop and third base, he hit .288/.368/.508 with 34 doubles, 22 home runs, 81 RBI and 21 steals in 124 games at Triple-A El Paso. His versatility and offensive upside could be more attractive than Azocar as a fifth outfielder.
San Francisco Giants: 3B Casey Schmitt
Wilmer Flores, J.D. Davis and David Villar are the leading candidates for the wide-open third base job in San Francisco.
However, after hitting .293/.365/.489 with 25 doubles, 21 home runs and 78 RBI in 126 games while reaching Triple-A last season, Schmitt could give that group a run for their money with a strong spring. The 2020 second-round pick is one of the fastest-rising prospects in the organization.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
