Probability Meter for Top 2023 NFL Draft Prospects to Go No. 1 Overall
When a quarterback is clearly atop his draft class, he's usually the No. 1 overall pick. Kyler Murray (2019), Joe Burrow (2020) and Trevor Lawrence (2021) went into the NFL rookie selection process with a good idea that they would get the first call. Though similar to last year, we're not sure who's going to be the top pick in April.
The 2022 draft class didn't feature a strong quarterback group. Edge-rusher Travon Walker saw a surge in his stock, and the Jacksonville Jaguars picked him over Aidan Hutchinson.
This year's crop of quarterbacks has a few prospects worthy of the No. 1 spot, but the Chicago Bears have a young signal-caller in Justin Fields, which adds to the intrigue around what could happen with the first pick.
Will the Bears trade it? If they do, which team will move up and for whom?
With so many variables at play, we can have a little fun with guesses as to who goes No. 1 overall.
You'll see five of the top prospects in the 2023 class listed below. Based on their collegiate production, our scouting reports and early media buzz, we'll provide the probability in percent of each player going No. 1 on April 27. All the percentages add up to 100.
Edge Will Anderson Jr., Alabama
1 of 5
In the event that the Chicago Bears hold on to the No. 1 overall pick, Will Anderson Jr. would likely hear his name called first on April 27.
The Bears finished the 2022 season with the fewest sacks (20) and the second-lowest pressure rate (15.9 percent). They need a prospect who can inject some life into their pass rush right away. Anderson can do that with his uncanny ability to shed blocks and make a beeline for the quarterback.
In 2021, Anderson lived in the opposing team's backfield, leading the nation in sacks (17.5) and tackles for loss (33.5) as a sophomore at Alabama. So, not only can he upgrade the Bears' pass rush, but the 2022 Chuck Bednarik Award winner, which goes to the Defensive Player of the Year on the collegiate level, can strengthen Chicago's 31st-ranked run defense as well.
With all that said, ESPN's Adam Schefter (h/t Waddle & Silvy via Bears Wire's Brendan Sugrue) believes that the Bears' No. 1 pick is "worth a small fortune," which means quarterback-needy teams might make a strong offer to move into the top spot.
In Year 2 of a rebuild under general manager Ryan Poles, the Bears should absolutely entertain blockbuster trade offers. Chicago can slide down the order with additional picks and address needs in multiple areas, including the defensive line, offensive line, wide receiver and linebacker within the first three rounds.
Unless the top quarterbacks fail to impress between the NFL Scouting Combine and their pro days, the Bears will likely find a suitor who's willing to offer an enticing deal for the top selection. If not, perhaps Anderson goes No. 1.
Probability Meter: 15 percent
DL Jalen Carter, Georgia
2 of 5
If the Chicago Bears hold on to the No. 1 pick, their scouting department may have some debate between Will Anderson Jr. and Jalen Carter.
As mentioned above, Anderson has impressive numbers, going back to his sophomore term, but he's 6'4", 243 pounds, which may raise questions about how his production will translate to the pro level. At 6'3", 300 pounds, Carter already has an NFL body frame.
Former Minnesota Vikings general manager Rick Spielman also made the case that Carter is a rare prospect and plays a position that's key to Bears head coach Matt Eberflus' defense.
"I just think it's hard to find a game-wrecking three-technique. I know with Chicago's defense, and what [Matt] Eberflus likes to run, that if you have a game-wrecking three-technique, that makes all the difference in the world. You can build around that. And those guys are rare to find, especially a Jalen Carter-type."
Now, think back to Eberflus' time as the defensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts. In March of 2020, the Colts sent a first-round pick to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who had an All-Pro and a Pro Bowl season under Eberflus.
Eberflus may place a high value on a three-technique defensive tackle to upgrade over Justin Jones, whom the team signed on a two-year, $12 million contract this past offseason, but he would probably prefer him in a trade-down scenario.
In his scouting report, B/R's Matt Holder compared Carter to Hall of Famer Warren Sapp. So, we cannot rule him out as a candidate to go No. 1 overall. However, as a defensive tackle, he plays a non-premium position. Carter has a minuscule chance to hear his name called before an edge-rusher or quarterback if the Bears keep the top pick.
Probability Meter: 1 percent
QB Will Levis, Kentucky
3 of 5
If you're into mock drafts, you'll see that some prognosticators have linked Will Levis to a team within the top five selections. In Bleacher Report's post-Super Bowl mock, he's paired with the Carolina Panthers, who moved up from No. 9 to No. 3 (the Arizona Cardinals spot) to get him.
At 6'3", 232 pounds, Levis looks the part of a starting quarterback in the NFL. He also has the arm strength and pocket presence to catch your immediate attention. The Kentucky product passes the eye test and checks all the boxes for physical makeup.
However, some teams may look at Levis' film and see a quarterback who's not quite yet ready to dissect NFL defenses from the pocket. B/R's Derrik Klassen highlighted a couple of major flaws in the quarterback's game.
"The 24-year-old prospect is incomplete despite his age and seasoning," Klassen wrote. "Levis' pre-snap processing still needs work, particularly with respect to blitz anticipation and replacement. Levis also needs to iron out consistency as a post-snap processor."
With those issues, Levis may need an entire year of development before he steps foot on the field, which isn't what you want to hear about a possible No. 1 overall pick.
Nonetheless, it only takes one club to gamble on Levis' potential with the hope that his ability to find weak spots in aggressive defenses improves while his tendency to lock on to receivers fades over time.
If Levis looks fantastic at the combine and on his pro day, teams may be willing to roll the dice on him in a move up to the No. 1 spot.
Probability Meter: 4 percent
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QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
4 of 5
C.J. Stroud had the benefit of playing with NFL talent in his two years as a starter at Ohio State, but that hasn't hurt his draft stock.
In 2021, Stroud threw passes to Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, who went back-to-back at Nos. 10 and 11 in the 2022 draft. In that term, Jaxon Njigba-Smith led the program in receptions (95) and receiving yards (1,606). He's a probable first-round pick in the upcoming draft despite missing all but three games because of a hamstring injury in 2022.
Last season, Stroud played with two sensational sophomore wide receivers in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. Both wideouts eclipsed 73 catches and 1,150 receiving yards while registering double-digit touchdown receptions. They're potential first-rounders in 2024.
We shouldn't take anything away from Stroud though. He's the top quarterback in B/R's latest big board rankings and the No. 1 pick in our most recent mock draft (going to the Indianapolis Colts).
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler spoke to an NFC team executive who said, "The gap between Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud isn't as big as you'd think." Fowler added that Stroud's (stock) is on the rise "in the eyes of some teams."
Clubs will look at Stroud's pinpoint accuracy (69.3 percent completion rate at Ohio State), quick release, ability to dice up blitz-heavy defenses and adequate showings of his mobility against Northwestern and Georgia in the College Football Playoff semifinals as a good foundation for a rookie quarterback. With that said, coaches must work on his off-platform throws, especially attempts on the move.
Stroud isn't quite the total package because of unimpressive playmaking skills with his legs, but he's probably the safest option because he does have some movement and oftentimes looks surgical in the pocket.
Probability Meter: 35 percent
QB Bryce Young, Alabama
5 of 5
Bryce Young may be the consensus top quarterback across media mock drafts. He's much more of a creator outside the pocket than Will Levis and C.J. Stroud, and the Alabama product can hit targets all over the field with great ball placement.
Most draft evaluators have major concerns about Young's size though. B/R scout Derrik Klassen provided some facts that raise concerns about the 6'0", 194-pound quarterback.
"Young would be the first quarterback who weighs less than 200 pounds to be picked in the top 100 since Pat White in 2007," Klassen wrote.
"Moreover, no quarterback under 200 pounds in the combine era (since 1999) has done anything of note besides Seneca Wallace, a fine career backup. Those size issues are worrisome as is, but it is especially so considering Young has no elite physical tools to help overcome them."
With the history stacked against Young because of his diminutive size, quarterback-needy teams may prefer a prototypical-looking signal-caller such as Stroud or Levis.
However, if Young steps on the scale and it reads 200 or more pounds at the combine, he can hold off Stroud and Levis for the top spot in the draft.
Unlike Stroud, Young is a natural improviser, and he showcased his ability to extend plays on a more frequent basis, something you see routinely on the NFL level. Typically, the Alabama product makes good decisions from the pocket, which had been an issue for Levis this past season.
Whether the Chicago Bears shock the NFL world and take a quarterback, or they accept a trade offer from a quarterback-needy team, Young seems like the most probable No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft.
Probability Meter: 45 percent
College statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com.
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