Fallen Preseason Contenders Still Capable of 2023 March Madness Runs
Each year, there are a handful of teams who enter the college basketball season with lofty expectations only to stumble out of the gates and steadily tumble down the rankings as the regular season unfolds.
In many cases, those early struggles are unsalvageable and it turns into a lost season, but sometimes a team can get hot when it matters most and overcome a slow start to make some serious noise in the NCAA tournament.
Ahead, we've highlighted fallen preseason contenders who are still capable of making a March Madness run.
In order to be eligible for inclusion, a team had to appear in the preseason AP Top 25 poll, no longer be ranked and still appear in the top 75 in the KenPom rankings, meaning there is still a conceivable path to an NCAA tournament at-large berth.
Dayton Flyers
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Preseason AP Ranking: 24
KenPom Ranking: 70
Bracket Matrix: N/A
For just the third time in team history and the first time since the 2009-10 season, the Dayton Flyers began the year with a spot in the preseason AP Top 25 poll.
Despite missing the NCAA tournament last year, expectations were high for a squad coming off a 24-win season and returning their top seven players in terms of both points and minutes played.
They stumbled out of the gates with a 3-4 record, including three losses in three days to Wisconsin, NC State and BYU at the Battle for Atlantis. Guards Malachi Smith, Koby Brea and Kobe Elvis all missed time to injury early in the season, and the Flyers quickly fell out of the national picture as a result.
However, they have quietly gone 14-5 since that inauspicious start, and they sit second in the A-10 standings behind a VCU team they just beat on the road last week. If Dayton can win out against a fairly easy remaining schedule and at least reach the championship game in the A-10 tournament, the at-large window could be open once again.
Oregon Ducks
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Preseason AP Ranking: 21
KenPom Ranking: 43
Bracket Matrix: N/A
The Oregon Ducks were ranked No. 13 in the preseason AP poll last year, and they appeared to be on their way to the NCAA tournament before stumbling to a 2-6 record to close out the regular season and eventually landing in the NIT.
With Will Richardson and Quincy Guerrier both back after averaging double-digit points per game last year, and South Carolina transfer Jermaine Couisnard and 5-star freshman Kel'el Ware both expected to make an immediate impact, they earned a spot in the preseason Top 25 poll once again.
A 13-point loss to UC Irvine in their second game of the year quickly knocked the Ducks out of the rankings, and that was soon followed by a three-game losing streak against a trio of ranked teams in Houston, UConn and Michigan State.
Oregon has not lost consecutive games since that rocky stretch in November, and while it has a pair of ugly Quad 3 losses, it also has four Quad 1 wins, including a 91-76 blowout victory at home over Arizona in early February.
The Ducks' final five regular-season games are against the five teams currently sitting at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. If they can win out and pick up at least one more quality win in the conference tournament, they will be back squarely on the bubble.
Duke Blue Devils
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Preseason AP Ranking: 7
KenPom Ranking: 35
Bracket Matrix: No. 7 seed
With five freshmen averaging at least 15 minutes per game, including four in the starting lineup, it's not surprising that it has taken the 2022-23 Duke Blue Devils some time to jell as a team.
Top recruits Dariq Whitehead (8.5 PPG, 2.4 RPG) and Dereck Lively II (4.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG) have both underperformed relative to their status as top-five recruits in the 2022 class, leaving the team without a reliable third scoring option alongside freshman Kyle Filipowski (15.1 PPG) and junior Jeremy Roach (12.8 PPG).
A 24-point loss to NC State on Jan. 4 knocked them out of the AP Top 25 rankings, and they have not returned in the weeks since. Their tournament stock was dealt another blow last week with road losses to ranked Miami and Virginia teams.
While their top-end resume is a bit lacking with a 3-7 record in Quad 1 games, their worst loss is a road game against Clemson (NET: 77), and they do not play a team that is currently ranked in the AP Top 25 over their final six regular-season contests.
Can the Blue Devils hit their stride when it matters most?
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Kentucky Wildcats
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Preseason AP Ranking: 4
KenPom Ranking: 44
Bracket Matrix: No. 11 seed
The Kentucky Wildcats saw their title hopes go down in flames last year when they lost to mid-major upstart Saint Peter's in the first round of the 2022 NCAA tournament, but they received a major boost when All-American Oscar Tshiebwe returned for another year.
The 6'9" center has been a double-double machine once again, averaging 15.7 points and 13.3 rebounds, and he is joined by fellow seniors Antonio Reeves, Jacob Toppin, Sahvir Wheeler and CJ Fredrick on an unusually experienced Kentucky roster.
An ugly loss to South Carolina (NET: 251) at home on Jan. 10 represented a low point in their season, but the Wildcats showed some resilience by following that up with a road win over Tennessee to kick off a four-game winning streak.
Kentucky stumbled again with back-to-back losses to Arkansas and Georgia last week, but it has a chance to make a statement down the stretch with games against tournament-bound teams in Tennessee, Auburn and Arkansas.
Don't count out Kentucky in the role of underdog. Of course, first it needs to spend the next few weeks building a strong enough case to punch its ticket to the NCAA tournament.
North Carolina Tar Heels
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Preseason AP Ranking: 1
KenPom Ranking: 38
Bracket Matrix: No. 11 seed
With starters Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, RJ Davis and Leaky Black all returning from last year's team that reached the national title game and Northwestern transfer Pete Nance joining via the transfer portal to replace Brady Manek, the Tar Heels began the year as an easy pick for the No. 1 spot in the AP poll.
They rolled to a 5-0 start against lesser competition before suffering their first loss of the season to Iowa State on Nov. 25 at the Phil Knight Invitational. That began a four-game losing skid that saw them tumble from No. 1 to No. 18 to unranked in the AP poll in a span of three weeks.
They rebounded with a 10-2 stretch, but again hit a bump in the road after that with three consecutive losses, including their worst defeat of the season on Feb. 1 at home against Pittsburgh (NET: 51).
While that's not a terrible worst loss, North Carolina's resume is sorely lacking in marquee wins to the tune of an 0-9 record in Quad 1 games. Its Feb. 25 matchup against No. 6 Virginia at home might be a must-win game for its tournament resume, but this still feels like a team capable of going on a March run if it can just punch its ticket.
All stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
