A 4-Team NBA Trade That Would Change Everything at the Deadline
With the 2023 NBA trade deadline a week away, there's still plenty of time for wild speculation, machinations and general trade-machine tomfoolery.
Here, you'll get all of the above.
In January, we proposed an "absurd" mega-trade that moved John Collins, Myles Turner, Russell Westbrook and more.
Now, we'll take a look at another potential deal that would shuffle a handful of players—like Russ, Bones Hyland and Bojan Bogdanović—who are in the rumor mill (plus a few who aren't) and flip the landscape of the 2023 title pursuit.
The Trade
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Before we get into the justifications for each of the teams involved, though, it's always helpful to see the entire deal at a glance.
As always, feel free to haggle over the young players and picks involved. You may value a given prospect or asset differently than me. That's fine. This is mostly about the general framework below.
Los Angeles Lakers Receive: Bojan Bogdanović, Kyle Lowry and Ish Smith
Detroit Pistons Receive: Russell Westbrook, Zeke Nnaji, a 2028 first-round pick swap with the Denver Nuggets, a 2028 second-round pick from the Miami Heat and a 2029 first-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers
Miami Heat Receive: Michael Porter Jr., Bones Hyland, Marvin Bagley III, a 2027 first-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers and a 2029 first-round pick from the Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets Receive: Jimmy Butler, Alec Burks and a 2027 second-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers
Now (*takes a deep breath), for the explanations of this masterpiece.
Lakers Push in the Chips
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Los Angeles Lakers Receive: Bojan Bogdanović, Kyle Lowry and Ish Smith
Los Angeles Lakers Lose: Russell Westbrook, a 2027 first-round pick, a 2027 second-round pick and a 2029 first-round pick
Thirty-eight-year-old LeBron James has proved himself worthy of a win-now trade this season (as if the previous 19 years weren't enough).
With 30.2 points, 8.5 rebounds and 7.1 assists, he's still putting up numbers that would earn him MVP buzz in most other seasons. And, when he's been healthy, Anthony Davis has arguably been even better than LeBron (he tops him in box plus/minus and certainly has the bigger defensive impact).
That top two can still compete for a title, provided it's surrounded by a decent supporting cast. To this point in the season, it just hasn't been. There are two highly coveted assets and a massive expiring contract that can fix that.
We've heard or read about a ton of "Russell Westbrook and picks" trades, but months of reporting suggests the front office isn't interested in completing any such deal if it doesn't make the Lakers a contender.
Given the parity in the middle of the Western Conference and the fact that the sub-.500 Lakers are within three games of sixth place, L.A. could talk itself into this deal making it a contender.
It'd certainly be an older lineup, but the combination of playmaking and shooting in a group that includes Kyle Lowry, LeBron James, Bojan Bogdanović, Rui Hachimura and Anthony Davis is good enough to spur a regular-season run and upend an underwhelming third or fourth seed in the first round.
And once you get LeBron a little playoff momentum, there's no telling what the Lakers might be able to pull off.
Yes, it's safer and perhaps justifiable to hang onto the picks and maintain flexibility going forward, but there's no guarantee a year that feels this wide-open comes along again. And, considering how far he's already pushed this boundary, there's no telling how many more prime (or prime-ish) years LeBron has left.
The Russ trade was a bold swing, but his game simply doesn't mesh with those of LeBron and AD. They need to be surrounded by shooting, and this deal accomplishes that.
Pistons Lean (Further) into the Rebuild
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Detroit Pistons Receive: Russell Westbrook, Zeke Nnaji, a 2028 first-round pick swap with the Denver Nuggets, a 2028 second-round pick from the Miami Heat and a 2029 first-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers
Detroit Pistons Lose: Bojan Bogdanović, Alec Burks and Marvin Bagley III
The Detroit Pistons have maintained pretty high asking prices for Bojan Bogdanović and Alec Burks this season, according to Omari Sankofa II of the Detroit Free Press. But this is a fairly easy sell for them (unless some other team would be willing to come over the top to offer more for either veteran).
Bogdanović and Burks are obviously nowhere near the developmental timelines of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren and the rest of Detroit's young core. Marvin Bagley III is, but the Pistons should prioritize Duren and Isaiah Stewart over him. Plus, they'll need roster spots for incoming lottery picks in the coming years.
Getting value for those three now and becoming a worse team in a year that could yield Victor Wembanyama is the obvious play.
This deal achieves that, plus it opens up a bunch of flexibility when Westbrook's deal expires this offseason. Getting a flyer on 22-year-old Zeke Nnaji is another bonus.
Heat Turn Back the Clock
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Miami Heat Receive: Michael Porter Jr., Bones Hyland, Marvin Bagley III, a 2027 first-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers and a 2029 first-round pick from the Denver Nuggets
Miami Heat Lose: Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry and a 2028 second-round pick
This is the slide that might require some suspension of disbelief, but two decades of superhero movies should have us all conditioned for that. And there's a reasonable explanation here, too.
The Miami Heat are less than three years removed from a Finals run with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, but an honest assessment of this year's Eastern Conference has to be daunting for the organization.
The Boston Celtics have played like a juggernaut for stretches. Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo are in their primes. And when Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are both available, the Brooklyn Nets look like legitimate title contenders. Even the Cleveland Cavaliers might not be beatable for Miami in the playoffs.
Cashing in on Jimmy Butler's value and whatever is left of Lowry's could land a huge return (like this one) and put Miami in position to compete for a title when some of the aforementioned stars are on the wrong side of their primes.
Now, you might say that two firsts isn't enough for Butler, considering the massive prices paid for Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert this summer, but at least two of the young players coming back should be every bit as valuable as a pick (and maybe even more so).
Michael Porter Jr. is a 6'10", 41.7 percent career three-point shooter with a high, seemingly unblockable release. He's only 24 years old and just over a half-decade removed from being the No. 2 high school recruit in the nation.
Of course, multiple back surgeries at Missouri and in the NBA raise concerns about MPJ's longterm durability, but he looks healthy now, and #HeatCulture has a knack for keeping guys upright.
And speaking of that 2017 recruiting class, the only player ahead of Porter was Marvin Bagley III, who's also headed to Miami in this deal. His NBA career has been underwhelming (to say the least) and not because of injuries. To date, he hasn't shown much willingness to do the things that really affect winning (like playing defense and moving the ball).
If there's a coach and developmental staff that can extract the maximum talent from a 23-year old with Bagley's measurables (6'11" with a 7'1" wingspan), it's probably Erik Spoelstra and company.
The real wild card, though, may be Bones Hyland.
He's seemingly fallen out of favor as trade speculation has ramped up, but Hyland has shown game-changing shooting ability and Damian Lillard-esque range on that shot. Since the start of his rookie campaign, despite averaging just 19.2 minutes, Hyland is 12th leaguewide in shots made from 28 feet and out. His percentage on those attempts is 37.3 (league average on all threes this season is 36.0).
His defense and decision-making can feel like an adventure (to say the least), but lineups with the shooting of Hyland, MPJ and Tyler Herro would be explosive right out of the box.
Ultimately, though, this is about getting high-pedigree talents who average 23 years old. Butler and Lowry are 33 and 36, respectively.
Nuggets Seize the Moment
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Denver Nuggets Receive: Jimmy Butler, Alec Burks and a 2027 second-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers
Denver Nuggets Lose: Michael Porter Jr., Bones Hyland, Zeke Nnaji, Ish Smith, a 2028 first-round pick swap with the Detroit Pistons, a 2029 first-round pick
The Denver Nuggets already have a roster that can win an NBA championship.
The two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokić is averaging a 25-point triple-double with a 70-plus true shooting percentage (truly bonkers, unprecedented numbers). He and the supporting cast have Denver in first place in the West. And perhaps most importantly, Jamal Murray has looked like his pre-injury self for the past several weeks.
Title windows don't stay open long, though. And maximizing their chances to break through should be something the Nuggets' front office is thinking about.
Michael Porter Jr. and Bones Hyland obviously have more longterm upside, but there's also no doubt that Jimmy Butler and Alec Burks would help Denver more than those two, Zeke Nnaji, Ish Smith and future draft picks would right now.
Just imagine Butler's cutting and in-between game in lineups with Jokić. Imagine the defensive upside of lineups with Butler, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown.
The killer instinct of a group with him and Murray would make John Wick jealous.
Butler (who's still averaging 22.0 points, 4.9 assists and a league-leading 2.1 steals) by himself would almost make the Nuggets prohibitive favorites in the West (and maybe even the whole league).
Adding another difference-making veteran on top of that is really the capper, though.
Burks has sneakily averaged 13.1 points and hit 40.8 percent of his threes over the last four seasons. He's three inches taller than Bones and nowhere near the liability on defense.
This is a steep and potentially risky (given the potential of MPJ and Bones) price to pay, but Butler's swan song would be worth it.
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