Six NFL Teams Positioned to Make Major Leaps in 2023 Offseason
The 2023 NFL offseason is underway now for all but two teams. And with a lull between the conference championship games and Super Bowl week in Arizona, this seems like an appropriate time to take a broad look at the long winter and spring that awaits squads that weren't as fortunate as the Philadelphia Eagles or Kansas City Chiefs in 2022.
It also helps that the 2023 NFL draft order is pretty much set now, and that it was revealed this week the salary cap will be rising significantly from $208.2 million in '22 to $224.8 million in '23.
With all that in mind, let's look at half a dozen teams primed to make substantial progress toward contender status between now and training camp.
Chicago Bears
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Simply by posting the worst record in the NFL in 2022, the Chicago Bears have the absolute most room to grow.
They also now possess the No. 1 overall pick in April's draft and are projected by Spotrac to enter the 2023 offseason with nearly twice as much salary-cap space as anyone else in the league.
And because 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields flashed considerably as a sophomore starting quarterback this season, Chicago has reason to be optimistic about its situation at the sport's most critical position. That could lead the Bears to land a king's ransom for anyone looking to jump the Houston Texans to select former Alabama star signal-caller Bryce Young at the top of the draft.
Throw in that they also have extra picks in Rounds 4 and 5, and the draft and real-world capital situation is mouth-watering for a team that has intriguing young pieces in place with Fields and offensive linemen Braxton Jones and Teven Jenkins.
Plus, with all of that cap space and very little in-house work to do in terms of talent retention, they truly can splurge if they so choose. The path to at least pushing the envelope is also there considering the state of the NFC North, where the Minnesota Vikings were imposters in 2022 and the Green Bay Packers are a huge question mark entering the offseason.
Detroit Lions
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Another team that could take advantage of the state of the NFC North is a Detroit Lions squad that missed the playoffs but posted a winning record and ranked in the top 10 in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders in 2022.
So we're talking about a borderline playoff-caliber team that—thanks to the Matthew Stafford trade—owns two of the top 18 picks in the draft and also is projected by Spotrac to have the league's 10th-best salary-cap situation this offseason.
With all of that money, the only arguably critical player who they have to re-sign is wide receiver D.J. Chark. But with loads of cap space and draft capital, they can easily do that or replace Chark (Allen Lazard?) while still improving substantially in other spots (Daron Payne and/or Jamel Dean could really help the league's 32nd-ranked defense from '22).
The Lions have less ground to make up than the Bears, and momentum, finances and draft potential are all on their side in a major way this winter and spring.
Seattle Seahawks
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The Seattle Seahawks remain in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, but it's still not hard to see a path for them to improve so much this offseason that they could take the NFC West down in 2023.
Like the Lions, the Seahawks were a top-10 DVOA team in 2022 that didn't win any playoff games. Like the Lions, they're projected by Spotrac to enter the '23 offseason with one of the 10 best salary-cap situations in the league. And like the Lions they currently hold two top-20 selections in the draft (in this case, thanks to the Russell Wilson trade).
They actually have twice as much cap space as Detroit and hold the No. 5 overall pick, one spot ahead of Detroit. Oh, and they have two second-round selections as well as an extra fifth-rounder.
Pete Carroll's squad also has little in-house work to do, aside from addressing the fact that breakout quarterback Geno Smith is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent next month. But NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Smith will be back, even if it means Seattle resorts to the franchise tag to retain him.
Ultimately, they'll have plenty of opportunities to beef up the defense and add weapons and protection in support of Smith. If they make the right calls in the right spots, the "rebuild" from the Wilson era might already be over.
Las Vegas Raiders
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The Las Vegas Raiders' primary focus this offseason will obviously be on the quarterback position, but Derek Carr's impending exit at least gives them a lot of room to grow.
Even now, only eight teams are projected by Spotrac to enter the 2023 offseason with more salary-cap space than the Raiders, but that could change significantly if/when they create more than $29 million in immediate cap space with Carr's trade or release. Based on current numbers, that would give the Raiders more room than anyone else in the AFC.
Keep in mind that this team won 10 games just a year ago and has Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Kolton Miller, Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones as centerpieces on either side of the ball.
Throw in that they hold the No. 7 overall pick in the draft, and general manager Dave Ziegler has a lot of room to play in order to get this team back into contention in 2023. Not only are we potentially talking Lamar Jackson or Tom Brady under center, but also difference-makers like Payne, Dean or Jessie Bates III to bolster a bad defense.
The Raiders will have a tough time winning the loaded AFC West in '23, but the path is there for them to contend in the playoffs again after a busted year.
New England Patriots
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The New England Patriots haven't won a playoff game since taking home the Vince Lombardi Trophy in 2018, and they've got a lot of work to do in order to contend with the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills in 2023. But you can never rule out Bill Belichick's squad, especially with plenty of cards in Belichick's hands.
Right now, the Bengals are the only team in the AFC with more projected 2023 cap space than the Patriots, who also hold the draft's No. 14 overall selection after a losing season in which they were still an above-average team in terms of DVOA.
They should easily be able to re-sign (if not upgrade on) key impending free agents Jakobi Meyers, Isaiah Wynn and Jonathan Jones at wide receiver, offensive tackle and cornerback, respectively. And there's still a decent chance young quarterback Mac Jones makes a nice leap ahead of Year 3.
Put it all together and the Patriots have to be considered a candidate to get back into the Super Bowl picture in 2023.
Arizona Cardinals
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The debate regarding the final spot here involved the Arizona Cardinals and Indianapolis Colts, both of whom possess top-four draft picks and rank above the league median in terms of projected cap space.
But the Cardinals at least have a potential phenom in Kyler Murray at quarterback, they ranked slightly higher than Indy in DVOA despite a worse record (4-13 versus 4-12-1), and they do have the slightly higher pick (third versus fourth) as well as a little more projected cap room ($13.5 million versus $11.9 million).
They'll have to take care of critical in-house impending free agents Byron Murphy and Zach Allen, but they were a top-10 DVOA team with Murray in 2021. That has to count for something as they prepare to flex their muscles in free agency and with the No. 3 overall pick in April's draft.
With the right moves from a potentially refreshing new regime, and with the right amount of progress from Murray as he recovers from a knee injury, the Cards could at least return to the wild-card picture in 2023.
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