Bengals vs. Chiefs: Final Odds, Spread Picks for AFC Championship Game 2023
Everyone loves a rivalry game, and Sunday's AFC title contest is shaping up to be a rare grudge match between non-divisional opponents.
The Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs will meet for the fourth time in two years and in a second consecutive AFC Championship Game. Quarterback Joe Burrow and the Bengals have won the last three meetings, and their confidence is understandably high.
Some Bengals players have even started referring to the Chiefs' stadium as "Burrowhead," and Kansas City has taken notice.
"See you all at Burrowhead Stadium," Chiefs defensive lineman said to cap a Friday press conference.
The stage is set for an intense battle between two championship-caliber teams. Here, you'll find all the information you need for the AFC Championship Game, including updated odds, the latest buzz and some predictions.
Game Info and Sunday Odds
1 of 3
Date: Sunday, January 29
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: CBS, Paramount+
Money Line: Chiefs -125 (bet $125 to win $100), Bengals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Line: KC -1.5
Over/Under: 48
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Preview
2 of 3
While many fans have been engrossed in the bulletin-board material being spewed by these two teams, words won't decide the outcome. Player health, though, could play a major role.
The biggest injury storyline has been that of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the ankle injury he suffered in the divisional round. Mahomes missed the majority of the second quarter, though he did return to start the second half.
Announced as a high-ankle sprain, the injury is likely to limit Mahomes' mobility and his penchant for extending plays. This, along with Cincinnati's recent history against the Chiefs, caused the early betting line to move from Kansas City's side and to favor the Bengals.
Late in the week, though, Kansas City returned to being the favorite. Mahomes participated in practices all week and appears to be about as healthy as one could expect.
"He looks good," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said on Friday, per NFL.com's Kevin Patra. "He's moving around good."
The challenge, if Mahomes is at all limited, will be finding a way to counter Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo—who has schemed against Mahomes and the Chiefs as well as anyone in the NFL.
Mahomes does not have an official designation on the injury report. Start tight end Travis Kelce (questionable, back) does, though, and that could become a major issue for Kansas City.
The Bengals, meanwhile, will be without starting linemen Jonah Williams and Alex Cappa for the second straight week. They've been officially ruled out, and they'll join starting right tackle La'el Collins—who was lost to a torn ACL in the regular season—as non-participants.
Prediction
3 of 3
If the Chiefs are going to protect Mahomes with Kelce at less than 100 percent, they'll need to lean on Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon and the ground game. That won't be an easy task, though, as the Bengals have been stout against the run for most of the season.
The Bengals finished the regular season ranked seventh in rushing yards allowed and ninth in yards per carry allowed (4.2). The Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens were the only teams to top 150 rushing yards against Cincinnati.
If Kansas City can keep Cincinnati honest, though, it will stand a chance. The trick will be giving Mahomes time to win in the pocket. If he can get that, the Chiefs can take advantage of a less consistent Bengals secondary—ranked 23rd in yards allowed.
The Chiefs can also find an edge with a pass rush that tallied 55 sacks in the regular season. The Buffalo Bills were unable to take advantage of Cincinnati's injury-hampered offensive line last week, but the Chiefs can.
The x-factor, of course, is Burrow. He can get the ball out ridiculously fast, and he's shown an elite level of pre-snap recognition. Kansas City will have to rely heavily on Jones, George Karlaftis and the four-man rush if it hopes to contain Burrow.
The Chiefs' ability to do that may hinge on its ability to contain Joe Mixon and the ground game. Cincinnati's rushing attack has been inconsistent, but it had its way with Buffalo. The Bengals racked up 172 rushing yards against the Bills last weekend.
The prediction here is that Kansas City's week off during the wild-card round plays a major factor. The Bills were gassed last Sunday, and Cincinnati dominated the line of scrimmage offensively and defensively.
That's less likely to happen against Kansas City. Beating Mahomes, Reid and the Chiefs four times in a row isn't easy—in fact, it's never happened—and the Bengals will fall just short on Sunday.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bengals 25
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).
21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
