Cowboys Have Little Margin for Error, but It's Not Super Bowl or Bust for Dallas

The Dallas Cowboys entered the 2022 season with the same goal as 2021. And 2020. And every season since the team last hoisted the Lombardi Trophy during the 1995 season.

Win Jerry Jones a fourth Super Bowl.

Seemingly nothing else will do in Dallas. There has already been speculation in some circles that should the Cowboys lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night, head coach Mike McCarthy could be shown the door.

But as so often been the case over these past three decades of aspirations unfulfilled, the expectations in Dallas have outpaced reality. The truth is that these Cowboys have flaws. Those flaws will most likely cause Dallas to come up short of the championship it has pursued for so long.

But coming up short of the Super Bowl doesn't mean it's time to blow things up and start sending players and/or coaches packing.

Because seismic changes in Dallas aren't going to get the Cowboys closer to the promised land. In fact, it will almost certainly simply drive them that much further away.

Much of the anxiety in Dallas stems from when we last saw the team on the field. With the NFC East and the No. 1 seed in the conference potentially on the line, the Cowboys promptly laid their biggest egg of the season against the Washington Commanders. Facing a rookie quarterback making his first career start, the Cowboys were sloppy on offense, porous on defense and got drilled 26-6.

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That loss sent the NFC's No. 5 seed stumbling into the playoffs and left quite the bad taste in the mouth of the team's owner.

"We get to suck on that all week," Jones told reporters. "And if that doesn't make you want to get ready to go in six to seven days, nothing else will.

"That was as thorough a butt-kicking as we've had this year. And we're going to find out if that will get you ready or not. It should.

"... We didn't rest anybody, so everybody got to bite this apple."

It was a game that laid bare the issues that could (and likely will) prevent the Cowboys from representing the NFC in Super Bowl LVII. While the Dallas defense ranked a respectable 12th in total defense and sixth in points allowed during the regular season, the Cowboys were just 22nd against the run.

Dak Prescott threw an NFL-high 15 interceptions despite playing in just 12 games and completed less than 40 percent of his passes against the Commanders.

After that disastrous performance, Prescott freely admitted to reporters that he needed to step up his game in the postseason.

"Every drive matters, and we have to play every play, every drive, like it is to win the game, and that's the reality of it when you get to the postseason," Prescott said. "So, it is just heightening our focus and understanding, for me, the risk versus the reward, rather it is a tight window or not. Everybody being on the same page understanding the magnitude of each play."

AP Photo/Nick Wass

Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb put it even more succinctly.

"We all got to flip the switch," he said.

Were it that simple, all this anxiety surrounding the Cowboys wouldn't exist. At their best, they are easily the most dangerous of this season's wild-card teams and can be as explosive offensively as any team in the NFL. Dallas also amassed 54 sacks this season—third-most in the league—and annihilated the NFC North champion Minnesota Vikings 40-3 in Week 11.

But if NFL teams could just flip a switch, every team would. It's far more likely that the issues that dogged the Cowboys the past month or so will continue to do so.

Dallas may be able to get past a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that has no shortage of problems of its own in the Wild Card Round, but even if it does, the Philadelphia Eagles or San Francisco 49ers will probably end its season the following week.

The Cowboys haven't made it past the divisional round since winning Super Bowl XXX. They likely won't this season, and that will have the fanbase calling for McCarthy's head and other major changes in the offseason.

Changes that would likely do more harm than good.

AP Photo/Mark Zaleski

While appearing on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas, Jones did his best to dispel the notion that McCarthy is coaching for his job.

"No,'' Jones said. "I don't need to go into all the plusses or minuses. I've got a lot more to evaluate Mike McCarthy on than this playoff game."

That won't stop the calls for McCarthy to be let go or the rampant speculation about how good Sean Payton might look prowling the sideline in Dallas. And to be fair, much like the team he currently coaches, McCarthy isn't without his flaws.

But it's not like Payton is necessarily a massive improvement over McCarthy. Bot men have won one Super Bowl. Both have similar career winning percentages (.631 for Payton, .614 for McCarthy).

And in addition to paying Payton (and paying off McCarthy), the Cowboys would also have to compensate the Saints, who are reportedly seeking a first-round pick (and more) in exchange for releasing Payton from his contractual obligations.

Dallas doesn't need to fritter away a first-rounder by swapping out head coaches. McCarthy isn't the Cowboys' biggest problem or even the team's fifth-biggest problem. He's 24-10 over his last two seasons in Dallas. That ain't bad.

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No, the Cowboys need to focus on the issues the team already has. Salary cap shenanigans are an annual occurrence in Dallas, and 2023 will be no different.

The team has about $8.6 million in cap space and a number of prominent free agents, including tight end Dalton Schultz, running back Tony Pollard, tackle Terence Steele and cornerback Anthony Brown. A decision needs to be made about Ezekiel Elliott's future with the team. Cornerback Trevon Diggs is eligible for an extension.

As things stand today, the Cowboys are a good team with the potential to be more. Dallas ranked inside the top five in both points scored and points allowed in 2022. It won 12 games despite losing its starting quarterback for over a month.

At their best, the Cowboys can beat any team in the league. Get Prescott to cut down on the turnovers and add improvements at wide receiver, along the offensive line and on defense (with those draft picks the team isn't spending on Payton), and Dallas would absolutely be in the mix as a Super Bowl contender in 2023.

Expectations are always Texas-sized in Dallas. And it's no secret that Jones desperately wants another Super Bowl win. But failing to get it this year isn't the end of the world.

Making a bunch of panic moves that slams the team's championship window shut to appease fans with unrealistic goals, on the other hand, could be.