2022-23 NFL MVP: Winner Prediction and Complete Odds for Top Candidates

Maurice Bobb@@ReeseReportFeatured Columnist IJanuary 11, 2023

2022-23 NFL MVP: Winner Prediction and Complete Odds for Top Candidates

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    LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 07: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of the game at Allegiant Stadium on January 07, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)
    Jeff Bottari/Getty Images

    Now that the 2022-23 NFL regular season is over, it's time to look forward to the playoffs and the race to Super Bowl LVII.

    Fans of teams that made the postseason are gearing up to cheer their squad to the ultimate glory, but they're also interested in what players will win the league's most coveted awards.

    The most important accolade, of course, is the AP Most Valuable Player, which will be revealed during the NFL Honors during Super Bowl Weekend.

    Right now, according to the oddsmakers, seven of the top 10 players on the leaderboard are quarterbacks.

    The other three include three skill players: two running backs and one tight end.

    Last year's winner, Aaron Rodgers, isn't in the running. He's replaced by Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles), while Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) and current front-runner Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) are once again serious candidates.

    Any one of the top three favorites is deserving of the honor, but only one will hear his name called.

    Here's a look at the latest odds and predictions for who takes home the NFL's top individual award.

Latest MVP Odds

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    INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 10: Peyton Manning presents the AP Most Valuable Player of the Year Award at the NFL Honors show at the YouTube Theater on February 10, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
    Michael Owens/Getty Images

    Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: +400 (bet $100 to win $400)

    Josh Allen, RB, Buffalo Bills: +550

    Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: +650

    Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers: +900

    Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: +1000

    Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys: +1500

    Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers: +1800

    Justin Herbert, QB, L.A. Chargers: +2500

    Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: +2800

    Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills: +2800


    Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Overview

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    PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 08: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles scrambles against the New York Giants at Lincoln Financial Field on January 8, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
    Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

    The last skill player to win the NFL MVP was Adrian Peterson, the star Minnesota Vikings running back who charged through the other finalists to claim the trophy back in 2012.

    Since then, it's been all quarterbacks. And this year, that tradition looks like it's going to continue, as the top five candidates are signal callers.

    Mahomes has been a mainstay in the conversation all season, especially with the way he's been able to thrive without his former star receiver Tyreek Hill, who signed with the Miami Dolphins in the offseason.

    The Chiefs are tied for the best record in the NFL at 14-3 and have won five straight.

    The 2018 MVP can thank Travis Kelce for helping him steer the ship. Kelce is also in contention for the award, but he's further down in the rankings at ninth.

    Then there's Allen, who has helped the Bills become legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

    Buffalo has the third-best record in the league and looks like it has the tools to go all the way.

    Jalen Hurts put himself into the conversation thanks to the way he's helped turn around the Eagles franchise.

    His winning ways have seemed to breathe new life into the team culture, and the Eagles have gone out and proved it on a weekly basis.

    Philly is tied for the best record in the NFL at 14-3, which is a huge leap from last year's 9-8 finish.

    Hurts has also proved how valuable he is to his team in his absence. The Eagles lost both games that he was sidelined because of a shoulder injury.

    Honorable mentions go out to Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow.

    In any other year, they'd both be top candidates for the award, but as it stands, there are three other QBs who have had vastly more impressive years.

    If Mahomes, Allen or Hurts wins the award, no one would have valid arguments against it.

    All three are deserving, but only one can win, and it will be up to the voters to decide who that is.

Prediction

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    ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 08: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills points downfield while attempting a pass during the third quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on January 08, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
    Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images

    The MVP award often goes to the best player with the best story. Had Cooper Kupp broken Michael Thomas' single-season receptions record (149) or Calvin Johnson's receiving record (1,964 yards) last year, then he would have had a much bigger chance of ending the collective quarterback dominance we've seen in the MVP race.

    When it comes to the MVP award, it's the sizzle that matters.

    Translation: the player with the best story arc for the season usually gets the happy ending.

    That's what makes this year's race so compelling. There are three great stories to tell, so the judges will definitely have their hands full when it comes time to submit their votes.

    For Mahomes, the story is similar to boy loses girl—although, there is a happy ending. Hill took his talents to South Beach, and the former Texas Tech standout had to find a way to win without his reliable and superfast wideout.

    He did that and more, all while setting the new single-season total yards record (5,614) previously earned by Drew Brees (5,562) in 2011.

    Allen found a way to take last year's disappointing loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round and build on it.

    Now, Buffalo looks like the best team in the NFL and is entering the postseason on a seven-game winning streak.

    He has close to the same statistics as last year, but Allen has looked more poised and been more efficient during this campaign.

    Hurts' story has a lot more nuance than Mahomes or Allen.

    Honestly put, he's had to endure more struggles to get here, and there are those who didn't think he would be who he's become.

    In 2021-22, Hurts had 3,144 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns and nine interceptions to go along with 10 rushing TDs and 784 yards on the ground.

    The Eagles finished 9-8 on the season.

    This year, his production is up on all fronts. He finished with 3,701 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns against six interceptions, as well as 13 rushing TDs and 760 yards with his legs.

    Philly ended the season at 14-3, and if he can play through his shoulder pain, Hurts has a better-than-great chance at taking his team all the way.

    That's quite the turnaround for a guy who was benched while at Alabama after winning a championship, only to transfer to Oklahoma and become a Heisman finalist.

    He's had a similar rough road in the NFL, and he still found a way to win despite not being a traditional pocket passer like Mahomes and Allen.

    If voters are relying solely on narrative, the award is Hurts' all day long.

    But stats are just too hard to ignore in this race, and on that front, Mahomes has them, and he likely sealed the deal in Week 18 when he leapfrogged Brees for the total yards record.

    Votes Prediction (50 total):

    Mahomes 30

    Allen 11

    Hurts 6

    Burrow 2

    Purdy 1

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