3 Bold Predictions for Cowboys in 2022 NFL Playoff Matchup vs. Buccaneers

The Dallas Cowboys' quest for a Super Bowl begins with a Monday night wild-card matchup on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The 12-5 Cowboys will make the trip to play the 8-9 Bucs, which will be hosting by virtue of winning an NFC South that no one seemed to want to claim this year.

The postseason narrative surrounding the Cowboys hasn't been a good one. Despite plenty of name recognition and hype, they have won just two playoff games in the last decade.

Last year's loss to the San Francisco 49ers was a painful one. Dak Precott and Co. came into the game as slight favorites only to get bullied by the Niners' run game in a 23-17 loss.

This year, they have a chance to flip the script. They will again head into their first playoff game as a slight favorite (-2.5, per DraftKings Sportsbook).

Here are three bold predictions for what's going to go down in this wild-card contest.

Dak Prescott Throws for Over 300 Yards

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LANDOVER, MARYLAND - JANUARY 08: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys looks to pass the ball during the second half of the game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on January 08, 2023 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)

There's no denying this has not been Dak Prescott's best season. The quarterback has thrown a career-high 15 interceptions despite playing in just 12 games.

On the season, the 29-year-old has thrown over 300 yards just once, when he lit up the Philadelphia Eagles' secondary for 347 yards in a 40-34 win over their NFC East rival in one of the biggest games of the season.

For all of Prescott's struggles this season, the potential for a big game is still there. After all, this is a Buccaneers defense that just allowed Sam Darnold to post 341 yards and three touchdowns to one interception in a key NFC South game two weeks ago.

Prescott has struggled against the Bucs. He only had 134 yards before leaving the game with an injury in the 19-3 loss to Tampa in Week 1. But it's also worth noting he threw for 403 yards and three touchdowns in the 2021 season opener.

At this point, the Cowboys—and their signal-caller—know they've proved they can produce in the regular season. All that matters at this point is that they produce in the playoffs.

Prescott's performance in a key game against the Eagles, combined with the recent poor performance of the Bucs pass defense against the Panthers, sets up the possibility of a big postseason breakout game for the Mississippi State product.

Cowboys Defense Holds Tampa Bay to 14 Points or Fewer

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NASHVILLE, TN - DECEMBER 29: Trevon Diggs #7 of the Dallas Cowboys looks down field against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on December 29, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

The biggest mismatch in this game is the Cowboys defense against the Buccaneers offense.

Dallas is fifth in the league in points per play and seventh in yards per play. It gets stops when it really needs them (ninth in third-down conversion rate), and it can get after the quarterback (third in pressure percentage).

The teams who have really been able to have success against Dan Quinn's defense are those that can run the ball.

That isn't a description that fits Tampa. Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White have been held in check nearly every week on the ground, and the team averages just 3.4 yards per carry.

Much of the discussion around this game will focus on Tom Brady vs. Dak Prescott, but that's not the matchup that's going to end up mattering. The Cowboys defense has the ability to take advantage of this one-dimensional offense.

If Tampa can't run the ball, it's going to allow Dallas to pin its ears back and disrupt Brady in the pocket.

This could be a good matchup for the Dallas defense to show it is a Super Bowl-caliber unit.

Dallas Wins by Double Digits

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ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 11: Micah Parsons #11 of the Dallas Cowboys defends against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at AT&T Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Arlington, TX. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

The line here is understandable given the Cowboys' misgivings in the postseason over the last decade. They have not lived up to the hype when it comes to the playoffs in a long time.

However, this also seems to be giving some undue credit to a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that has not looked good for most of the season.

The Bucs have the league's worst rushing attack. They rank last in yards per attempt, yards per game and rushing touchdowns. That puts a lot on the shoulders of a 45-year-old Tom Brady, who hasn't always had his fastball this year.

Ultimately, the records tell the story of these two teams.

Dallas is a team that boasts a top-tier defense and an offense that's capable of putting up points. It went 12-5 in a very competitive NFC East this season. The Bucs went 8-9 despite playing in an NFC South comprised of teams that had to fight to get to .500.

The reasons to believe the Bucs win this game hang on Brady's undefeated record against the Cowboys and Dallas' playoff woes. Neither of those things is going to matter on Monday night, though, and Mike McCarthy's team is going to answer many questions with an emphatic win that easily covers the spread.