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Super Bowl 2023: Updated Odds and Predictions for NFL Championship Game

Joe TanseyJanuary 9, 2023

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 07: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of the game at Allegiant Stadium on January 07, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)
Chris Unger/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the most consistent team when it comes to reaching the Super Bowl over the last five years.

They have appeared in two of the last three Super Bowls and are at the top of the AFC standings again this season.

It comes as no surprise to see Andy Reid's team on top of the odds chart for winning the Lombardi Trophy entering the NFL postseason.

However, the Chiefs may be more vulnerable than they have been in previous seasons.

The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals both beat Kansas City in the regular season, and the Chiefs won't have the luxury of playing the AFC Championship Game inside Arrowhead Stadium if they face the Bills.

As for the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles are the top dog in the conference, but they do not have the best Super Bowl odds.

The San Francisco 49ers, which last appeared in the Super Bowl three years ago, are tied with the Eagles for the lowest odds to come out of the NFC.

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are lurking in the NFC playoff field and they could be one of the dark horses to challenge for a trip to Arizona for the February 12 title game.


Super Bowl Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Kansas City (+330; bet $100 to win $330)

Buffalo (+400)

San Francisco (+600)

Philadelphia (+600)

Cincinnati (+800)

Dallas (+1100)

Los Angeles Chargers (+2000)

Tampa Bay (+2500)

Minnesota (+3000)

Baltimore (+3500)

Jacksonville (+4000)

Seattle (+5000)

New York Giants (+5000)

Miami (+6000)


Any Super Bowl conversation has to start with the Kansas City Chiefs.

They have appeared in each of the last four AFC title games and two of the last three Super Bowls.

Patrick Mahomes knows how to win in the postseason more than any quarterback in the conference. Joe Burrow is the only other signal-caller in the AFC field with a Super Bowl appearance.

Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals and Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills are the last two teams to beat Kansas City.

The Bengals won at home over the Chiefs by three points early in December, while the Bills went into Arrowhead to earn their victory in Week 6.

Buffalo is the biggest threat to Kansas City because a Bills-Chiefs matchup pulls the AFC Championship Game out of Arrowhead and to a neutral site.

The Bills have all the characteristics of a Super Bowl team, and it may finally be time for Allen to ascend to the top of the AFC after watching Mahomes and Burrow do it in recent years.

Buffalo has to be considered a good bet to win the Lombardi Trophy right now because it has to win two home games and a neutral-site contest. The team won't play a true road game in the postseason.

The back end of the AFC playoff field has a minefield of concerns. The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins have not had their starting quarterbacks for weeks, and the Los Angeles Chargers enter the postseason with a banged-up Mike Williams.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are probably the biggest threat to the big three of the AFC. Trevor Lawrence is playing with a ton of confidence right now, the Jags defense is in good form and Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach.

It may be a year too early to consider Jacksonville to win outright, but the team is worth a flier at +4000 in case it gets on a run.

The Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings are the best long shots out of the NFC.

The reasoning behind Tampa Bay is simply Tom Brady.

You can never truly count out the 45-year-old in the postseason. And if he wins one game, he could muster up the confidence to claim two more and land in State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on February 12.

Minnesota is undervalued as the No. 3 seed at +3000. The Vikings have question marks because of the blowout losses they suffered against Philadelphia, Dallas and Green Bay, but they could start a Super Bowl run with a home win in the Wild Card Round.

Philadelphia and San Francisco seem like the two best options coming out of the NFC.

The Eagles have a terrific well-rounded team, led by Jalen Hurts, and they can score more than any opposition they face.

The home-field advantage in Philadelphia is a major help as well, especially if it rattles Brock Purdy in an NFC Championship Game.

The 23-year-old rookie has not lost as the 49ers' starter and has a fantastic foundation around him to make a deep run.

Also, do not forget about the 49ers' postseason experience and their trip to the Super Bowl three years ago. Some of the core players from that team are still around, and the addition of Christian McCaffrey could be what lifts them beyond the Eagles.

San Francisco would play with no pressure in a potential NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia and that could play in its favor against Hurts, A.J. Brown and Co.

Prediction: Buffalo vs. San Francisco


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