NFL Playoff Odds 2023: Early Lines for Wild Card Games and Super Bowl
Fourteen teams will enter the NFL postseason, but only two will be good enough to reach the Super Bowl in Arizona.
Some of the usual Super Bowl contenders from the last few years are once again vying for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are the current Super Bowl favorite. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are favored to start their postseason run with a win at home on wild-card weekend.
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills also face a divisional foe, while Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert will fight to have a new young quarterback in the divisional round.
The Philadelphia Eagles sit on top of the NFC, but the San Francisco 49ers have the same odds to win the title out of that conference.
The other questionable call on the odds market is Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers listed as a home underdog to kick off their potential run at glory.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Super Bowl Odds
Kansas City (+330; bet $100 to win $330)
San Francisco (+600)
Los Angeles Chargers (+2000)
Tampa Bay (+2500)
New York Giants (+5000)
AFC Wild-Card Games
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at No. 4 Jacksonville (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC)
No. 7 Miami at No. 2 Buffalo (-10.5) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS)
No. 6 Baltimore at No. 3 Cincinnati (-6.5) (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC)
All three of the AFC wild-card matchups are rematches from the regular season. However, only two of the regular-season clashes could teach us anything about these matchups.
Jacksonville beat the Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Week 3, but that result occurred with a banged-up Justin Herbert on the field for Los Angeles.
The Jaguars are a much better team compared to where they were on September 25.
Jacksonville won five straight games and went 6-1 out of its Week 11 bye to capture the AFC South crown.
Doug Pederson's team posted at least 20 points in five of its last seven games, while his defense came alive in the last three weeks, as it conceded 22 total points.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles is playing its best football of the season, with Herbert, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen playing at a high level.
Mike Williams' back injury suffered on Sunday is something to watch in the buildup to next weekend. Williams did not return after he went down with the injury, though ESPN's Lindsey Thiry reported that he should be ready for next weekend's game.
A fully healthy Chargers team could win in north Florida, but if they are impacted in any way, the Jaguars could hone in on Allen and make the supporting cast beat them.
Jacksonville is probably the most trustworthy underdog in the AFC since it is playing at home.
Miami and Baltimore face tough road challenges against divisional opponents as underdogs.
The Dolphins lost in Buffalo in Week 15 and have struggled without Tua Tagovailoa on the field. The Dolphins did not score a touchdown with Skylar Thompson under center in Week 18.
Buffalo has not lost since the wild overtime defeat against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 10.
The Bills have back-to-back double-digit victories entering the postseason, and although 10-plus points seem high for a playoff favorite, they could cover it against a backup quarterback or Tagovailoa when not at 100 percent.
Baltimore also has quarterback questions going into its showdown with Cincinnati. Lamar Jackson has not played since Week 13, and Tyler Huntley was held out of Sunday's loss to the Bengals because of injuries.
The Ravens will have J.K. Dobbins and Mark Andrews fresh after both players were rested on Sunday. That is a plus, regardless of which player starts at quarterback.
Cincinnati's offense is rolling with Joe Burrow at the helm, and its defense held three of its last four opponents under 20 points.
The Bengals have not lost since Week 8, and it will be tough to beat with either third-string QB Anthony Brown, Huntley or a rusty Jackson starting for the Ravens.
Buffalo and Cincinnati should win. The Bengals are the better option to cover because of their defense and the smaller number in their favor.
NFC Wild-Card Games
No. 7 Seattle at No. 2 San Francisco (-10) (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
No. 6 New York Giants at No. 3 Minnesota (-2.5) (Sunday, 4:30 pm ET, FOX)
No. 5 Dallas (-3) at No. 4 Tampa Bay (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Giants and Vikings are two weeks removed from playing a close game at U.S. Bank Stadium, with the former pushing the latter to the end before Greg Joseph nailed a game-winning field goal to win the contest by three points.
Minnesota is favored by less than its winning margin over the Giants in Week 16.
The Vikings could have some skeptics because they suffered blowout losses to Philadelphia, Dallas and Green Bay during the regular season.
Kirk Cousins and Co. could come out with something to prove next weekend. But that may be hard against a Giants team that should play free after exceeding all expectations set for Brian Daboll's first season as head coach.
The Giants should gain confidence from playing the Vikings close in Minnesota two weeks ago. They can dictate the pace of the game through Saquon Barkley, who was rested in Week 18 with the playoffs in mind.
The other NFC East team in action next weekend is a road favorite.
The Dallas Cowboys finished with four more wins than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they did start the season with a 19-3 loss to Tom Brady's team.
You also have to consider Brady's illustrious postseason record when betting on the Bucs-Cowboys game.
Brady might not be at the height of his powers anymore, but he did play well with the NFC South on the line against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17.
The San Francisco 49ers will be expected to beat the Seattle Seahawks handily based on their two regular-season meetings.
The 49ers won 27-7 in Week 2 and 21-13 in Week 15. They have allowed more than 20 points once during their 10-game winning streak.
Kyle Shanahan's team is battle-tested in the postseason and now gets to use Christian McCaffrey in playoff situations.
The Seahawks are a great story, but they may come up short against a team built to make a deep run in the postseason.
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