Bears' Rooting Guide for 2023 NFL Draft Implications of Week 18
Looking back, the 2022 Chicago Bears season has a chance to be the launch point for a new, exciting era in the team's history.
It's never fun to suffer through a season in which the team is in contention for the No. 1 pick. But the top pick, combined with more than $119 million in projected cap space, is the kind of thing that can turn a franchise around quickly.
The Bears are going to walk into the offseason with all the resources that new general manager Ryan Poles needs to build this team to his vision and the specifications that new head coach Matt Eberflus need to be successful.
Currently, the Bears hold the No. 2 pick, but that could change depending on the results of Week 18's game. At least holding that spot or moving up to the No. 1 pick means losing the season finale to the Minnesota Vikings.
Here's a look at where things stand and what games could impact where the Bears ultimately make their selection.
Current Draft Order
1 of 3
- Houston Texans
- Chicago Bears
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Arizona Cardinals
- Indianapolis Colts
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Atlanta Falcons
- Carolina Panthers
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Tennessee Titans
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- New York Jets
- Washington Commanders
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Green Bay Packers
- Detroit Lions
- Forfeited by Miami Dolphins
- Seattle Seahawks
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- New England Patriots
- New York Giants
- Baltimore Ravens
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Minnesota Vikings
- Dallas Cowboys
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers)
- Buffalo Bills
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles
Draft order via Tankathon. Miami's pick (currently 18 overall) will be forfeited for tampering.
Where the Bears Stand
2 of 3
The Bears enter the final week of the season with nearly a 50 percent shot to claim the No. 1 pick. ESPN's projections, which are based on simulations using its FPI metric, give them a 48.4 percent chance to surpass the Texans for the top selection.
All of a sudden, the Bears' Week 3 win over Houston is playing a huge role in where they will pick.
A Bears loss combined with a Texans win over the Indianapolis Colts would put the Bears on top of the draft board. A win over Minnesota would put them at risk of dropping down as low as pick four.
The Seattle Seahawks—who own the Denver Broncos' first-round pick—and the Arizona Cardinals are just a game behind the Bears but have weaker strength-of-schedule figures.
The presence of C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young at the top of the draft board makes the top-four order important. The Bears are likely not in the market for a quarterback with Justin Fields entering his third season. However, picking ahead of quarterback-needy teams could put them in the driver's seat for a lucrative trade.
Games to Watch
3 of 3
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
This is the big one. If the Texans lose to the Colts, the Bears' hopes of getting the No. 1 pick are done. However, a Texans win would open the door to the top pick with a Bears loss to the Vikings.
The Texans have been in pole position for the No. 1 pick for the majority of the NFL season, but they made a late switch possible with their Week 16 win over the Tennessee Titans.
Houston kicked this season off with a 20-20 tie against the Colts, so it's hard to tell how these two will match up. Neither team quite looks like what it did in Week 1. Jonathan Taylor's absence for the Colts is the most notable.
The Colts have lost six straight and are now playing under interim coach Jeff Saturday. There's not a lot of reason for them to put forth a valiant effort here, and the fact they could keep the Texans from having their choice of blue-chip quarterback prospects is all the more reason to do what they can to find a way to lose this game.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
In the event the Bears pull off the upset against the Vikings, the Broncos and Cardinals games will suddenly become important. If both were to lose, the Bears could slide from the second pick to the fourth pick, which hurts their chances of landing one of the top players in the draft or getting a massive return in a trade.
On the surface, the game between the Chargers and Broncos might seem like a lost cause. In actuality, there's reason to believe Denver could help the Bears out.
For one, the Broncos don't own their first-round draft pick after sending it to Seattle as part of the deal that landed Russell Wilson. They have no reason to tank their chances and need to get as much positive momentum going into the offseason as possible.
Their performance against the Chiefs last week was promising, too. Kansas City is once again a Super Bowl contender, and Denver bounced back to only lose by three after losing to the Rams 51-14.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
There's less reason to believe the Cardinals would help out the Bears if they need it. While the Broncos at least have an interim head coach to rally around, the Cardinals are stuck in reverse with Kliff Kingsbury at the helm.
After starting the season 3-4, the Cards are just 1-8 over the final 10 weeks of the season. They've lost six straight, including a 38-10 loss at home against the Niners.
Granted, that was when the Niners still had Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. However, Brock Purdy has filled in nicely and helped extend their winning streak to nine.
With the Cardinals starting David Blough at quarterback and missing DeAndre Hopkins, there's just not enough reason to believe the Cardinals can move the ball with any kind of consistency, let alone stop the Niners offense.
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