Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 18: Top Matchup Plays and Sleepers for Final Games
For many fantasy managers, the chance to win a championship has passed. With NFL teams potentially resting starters in Week 18, a lot of season-long leagues have already ended. However, some deeper leagues—and those using two-week game formats for the postseason—have one more round to go.
These leagues will truly test managers, as lineup uncertainties loom over several teams. Those who have clinched playoff berths or with nothing to play for may opt to rest players in their finales.
To win in the NFL's final week, managers must be sure of who they can trust and who they cannot. With this in mind, we'll examine some of the best and worst matchups of Week 18, along with some potential sleepers and waiver-wire targets.
All picks are based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.
Start 'Em: Patrick Mahomes at Las Vegas Raiders
1 of 5
The Kansas City Chiefs shouldn't be one of the teams resting starters in Week 18. Kansas City still has a shot to claim the AFC's No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. However, it must get past the rival Las Vegas Raiders in order to do that.
As the Raiders proved against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, they're not going to just roll over.
Las Vegas took the 49ers to overtime, thanks to a strong performance from quarterback Jarrett Stidham. The Chiefs cannot afford to take this game lightly, and they should lean heavily on Mahomes and the passing game.
Kansas City needed Mahomes to be great the last time it faced Las Vegas. He was, finishing with 292 passing yards and four touchdowns in a one-point victory.
Managers who have ridden Mahomes' success to the championship game should trust him once again. The Chiefs have plenty to play for, and the Raiders have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Sit 'Em: Justin Herbert at Denver Broncos
2 of 5
Like Mahomes, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been pretty remarkable in 2022. However, managers shouldn't have the same level of trust in Herbert this week.
The Chargers are already locked in to a wild-card spot and could rest starters against the Denver Broncos in Week 18. It's not a guarantee, but it's something L.A. will most likely consider. Win or lose, the Chargers will be either the fifth or sixth seed in the AFC.
On top of this, the Broncos do represent a tough matchup. The Broncos have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season and gave Herbert a lot of trouble in the first meeting.
Herbert finished that game with just 238 passing yards and an interception on 57 attempts. Granted, he didn't have wideout Keenan Allen in that game, but the fact that the Broncos know how to limit Herbert is clear.
With no guarantee that the Chargers play their starters for a full game, Herbert is too much of a risk if managers have any viable alternatives.
Start 'Em: Cam Akers at Seattle Seahawks
3 of 5
It's been an odd year for Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers. He struggled early in the season, stepped away from the team as the Rams considered trading him, and he has emerged as a star over the past few weeks.
"I think you're seeing a complete back," Rams coach Sean McVay said, per Cameron DaSilva of Rams Wire.
Perhaps Akers is playing more freely now that L.A.'s playoff hopes have ended. Maybe he's benefited from the mostly steady play of quarterback Baker Mayfield (95.2 passer rating with the Rams). Whatever the reason, Akers has been going off.
Last week, Akers rushed for 123 yards and caught a 10-yard pass. He's reached 100 scrimmage yards in each of his past three games. This week, he'll face a Seattle Seahawks team that has surrendered the third-most fantasy points to opposing RBs.
Kudos to the managers who held on to Akers when he wasn't even with L.A. on gamedays. Now's the time to cash in by starting him in the finale.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Sit 'Em: Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Houston Texans
4 of 5
Wideout Michael Pittman Jr. has been one of the few reliable fantasy stars for the Indianapolis Colts this season. In a Week 18 game against the rival Houston Texans, though, Pittman cannot be trusted.
This may seem counterintuitive, as Pittman shredded the Texans defense back in Week 1. He finished that game with nine catches, 121 yards and a touchdown. However, the Colts are turning to third-string quarterback Sam Ehlinger this week, as Nick Foles will be out with a rib injury.
In Ehlinger's two earlier starts this season, Pittman was far from fantastic. He did catch 10 passes in those games but tallied just 75 combined yards.
On top of Indy's QB situation, managers must factor in Houston's 32nd-ranked run defense. Teams simply don't attack the Texans through the air often (fifth-fewest pass attempts against), which is why they've allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.
This is too uncertain of a situation to consider with a fantasy championship on the line.
Sleepers and Waiver-Wire Adds
5 of 5
Jarrett Stidham, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
While managers should trust Mahomes, those needing a replacement should target Stidham on the waiver wire.
In his first NFL start—which came against a good 49ers defense—Stidham finished with 365 passing yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions and 34 rushing yards. He has a much better matchup this week against Kansas City, which has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks
Stidham is rostered in 1 percent of Yahoo and ESPN leagues.
Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Pittman may not see a lot of work against a Houston defense that cannot stop the run. However, running back Zack Moss will. He's become the starter with Jonathan Taylor out, and he's a sneaky sleeper play for Week 18.
While Moss hasn't put up Taylor-like numbers, he's been solid. He racked up 74 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per carry in Week 17. He should have a much bigger day against the Texans, as no team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing RBs than Houston.
Moss is rostered in 46 percent of Yahoo leagues and 44 percent of ESPN leagues.
Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans
Like the Colts, the Tennessee Titans will have a third starter at quarterback in Week 18. Joshua Dobbs got an audition in a meaningless game against the Dallas Cowboys last Thursday and fared well enough (232 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) to start over Malik Willis in the finale—Ryan Tannehill is on injured reserve with an ankle injury.
Dobbs also found a connection with rookie wideout Treylon Burks against Dallas. The Arkansas product caught four passes for 66 yards and logged a 20-yard carry versus the Cowboys.
The Jacksonville Jaguars don't represent the spiciest of matchups—they've allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points to WRs—but this is a must-win game that will determine the NFC South champion. Expect Burks, who is rostered in 41 percent of Yahoo and ESPN leagues—to be a huge part of the game plan.
*Fantasy scoring and roster information via FantasyPros
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
