NFL Teams Best Positioned to Make a Surprise Run Through the 2022 Playoffs
Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season kicked off on Thursday night, which means we're roughly two weeks away from the start of the postseason. Heading into Sunday, we have a good idea of who this year's Super Bowl favorites are.
The Philadelphia Eagles are only one win away from clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC. However, the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers are still technically alive for that coveted first-round bye. In the AFC, the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs are vying for the No. 1 seed.
Unsurprisingly, all of these teams—aside from the Vikings, which oddsmakers don't take too seriously—have 11-1 or better Super Bowl odds, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
The past two years have shown that the favorites don't always get to the big game, though. The Bengals and Los Angeles Rams each reached the Super Bowl as a No. 4 seed last year. The previous year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won it all as the NFC's No. 5 seed.
Factors like playoff experience, team health and momentum—there's a lot to be said for peaking at the right time—can outweigh the benefits of home-field advantage or a bye.
With that in mind, let's examine five of the non-favorites who could make surprise runs to Super Bowl LVII. Each team listed here has 20-1 or longer odds to win the Super Bowl but could still be a major postseason threat.
Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
Baltimore Ravens
1 of 5
Super Bowl Odds: 25-1
The Baltimore Ravens still have a shot at winning the AFC North, so they aren't as much of a long shot as some of the other teams featured here. However, they'd have to win out and beat the Cincinnati Bengals—who are currently riding a seven-game winning streak—to host a wild-card game.
The biggest question mark for the Ravens right now is the health of star quarterback Lamar Jackson. The two-time Pro Bowler has been out since suffering a PCL injury in Week 13, and Baltimore hasn't been the same without him.
With Tyler Huntley at quarterback, the Ravens have scraped by the Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons. They also got embarrassed by the lowly Cleveland Browns. Since Jackson has been out, Baltimore has not looked like a credible threat to reach the Super Bowl.
However, Jackson could be back for the playoffs. According to Mike Preston of the Baltimore Sun, Jackson's recovery timeline is 4-6 weeks, which would potentially put him back under center for the wild-card round.
Jackson is arguably the hardest quarterback in the NFL to defend because of his dual-threat ability, and he'd make Baltimore a threat against any opponent. What makes the Ravens truly dangerous, though, is the fact that they've learned to lean on their defense and ground game without him.
With or without Jackson, the Ravens can run the ball well. Their defense ranks third in points allowed. With Jackson chewing up yards on the ground and dropping dimes to the likes of Mark Andrews and Demarcus Robinson, the Ravens offense will be even tougher to handle.
Jackson has never taken the Ravens beyond the divisional round, but that could very well change this season if he returns to 100 percent. He's one of the hardest quarterbacks for opponents to prepare for, and he's leading a team that is built to win close games in January.
Green Bay Packers
2 of 5
Super Bowl Odds: 50-1
A lot has gone awry for the Green Bay Packers in 2022. They lost offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett in the offseason, traded away No. 1 receiver Davante Adams, and rookie wideouts Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson missed various stretches due to injuries.
The result has been a disjointed offense and some surprisingly poor play by quarterback Aaron Rodgers. His 91.3 passer rating is his lowest since he became a starter in 2008. Rodgers has also dealt with thumb and rib injuries, which hasn't helped matters.
Despite all of that, Green Bay still has a shot at making the playoffs. The 7-8 Packers need to win out and get either one loss by the Washington Commanders or two losses by the New York Giants.
If the Packers do get in, they'll be a threat in the NFC. Rodgers has made 21 playoff starts, and it's not as though he's forgotten how to play quarterback. He was the NFL's MVP in 2021 and 2022 for a reason.
But the biggest reason why Green Bay can be dangerous is the formula it has found in recent weeks.
Since just before their Week 14 bye, the Packers have figured out how to win without Rodgers being great. They've leaned on Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon and a strong ground game, along with an aggressive and opportunistic defense.
During Green Bay's three-game winning streak, the Packers have rushed for 392 yards while forcing eight turnovers on defense. Rodgers has played the game-manager role, steering the offense and making the occasional clutch throw.
Having Watson and Doubs in the lineup since the bye—although Watson exited last week with a hip injury—has helped keep the Packers offense from being too one-dimensional. If both can stay healthy, Green Bay can win games by controlling the tempo, having a balanced offensive attack and forcing the opposition into miscues.
That recipe can work in the postseason. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers largely rode it to a championship in Super Bowl LV. It makes Green Bay a bigger threat than the rival Detroit Lions, who have virtually the same path to the postseason.
Detroit can light it up offensively, but its defense is atrocious. The Lions rank dead last in both yards and points allowed and just surrendered 570 yards (including 320 rushing yards) in an upset loss to the Carolina Panthers.
The big question for Green Bay, aside from whether it can even get into the postseason, is whether Rodgers can revert to his MVP form when he has to. If he can, no team should feel safe playing the Packers in January.
Jacksonville Jaguars
3 of 5
Super Bowl Odds: 60-1
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been one of the NFL's biggest surprises over the second half of the 2022 season. They were 3-7 before their Week 11 bye but have gone 4-1 since then. With the Tennessee Titans floundering, they're now in position to take the AFC South.
Regardless of what happens this week, the Jags will be division champions if they beat the slumping Titans in Week 18. They'll host a playoff game if that happens, and they could make the sort of unforeseen run that the Bengals did last year.
There are a lot of similarities between last year's Bengals and the Jags team we've seen over the past month. Like Joe Burrow before him, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has morphed into an elite quarterback. His 96.0 passer rating doesn't quite show how special he's been since the bye, but the come-from-behind win he engineered against Dallas in Week 15 does.
Jacksonville is also playing tough, physical and efficient defense, much like Cincinnati did last year. While the Jaguars rank 15th in points allowed, they've forced eight turnovers and notched 10 sacks during their recent three-game winning streak.
While the Jaguars don't have a star like Ja'Marr Chase headlining their receiving corps, they do have playmaking pass-catchers in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones Jr. and Evan Engram. They also have a dangerous dual-threat running back in Travis Etienne Jr. As Joe Mixon did for Cincinnati last year, Etienne can help the Jags achieve offensive balance.
Jacksonville did fall flat against the Lions in Week 13, but it has looked as dangerous as any team in the league over the past three weeks. On top of that, the Jaguars have a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Doug Pederson.
Pederson steered the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory in 2017 despite losing starting quarterback Carson Wentz just before the playoffs. He knows exactly what postseason success requires, and the players believe in him.
"Doug does a great job on being a leader of the team," linebacker Josh Allen said, per Gene Frenette of the Florida Times-Union. "His communication is the best communication I've had with a head coach here."
With Pederson steering the proverbial ship and the Jags getting hot at the right time, the AFC could send back-to-back No. 4 seeds to the Super Bowl.
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Los Angeles Chargers
4 of 5
Super Bowl Odds: 22-1
The Los Angeles Chargers can climb no higher than the No. 5 seed in the AFC, but opponents won't want to face them in the postseason. Unlike the Miami Dolphins—who have lost four straight and just lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to another concussion—the Chargers are barreling into the postseason with a lot of momentum.
Los Angeles has won three straight and four of its last five. Receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are back in the fold after injuries (ankle and hamstring, respectively) caused them to miss time earlier in the season.
The Chargers also have one of the league's best dual-threat backs in Austin Ekeler and an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert. L.A. can match points with just about any team it faces in the postseason.
Los Angeles is an imperfect team, which is why it's locked into a wild-card spot and not in contention for the AFC West crown. The offensive line has given up 38 sacks this season, and the defense ranks just 19th overall.
However, a few potential returns could boost L.A. at exactly the perfect time.
Pro Bowl offensive tackle Rashawn Slater has been out since Week 3 with a torn bicep, but Chargers have not ruled out his return in 2022. The Chargers also designated star pass-rusher Joey Bosa (groin) to return from injured reserve on Thursday, per NFL.com's Nick Shook.
The Chargers defense has started to gel in recent weeks, allowing a total of 34 points during its three-game winning streak. If the defense can maintain that level of play—and get back the pass-rushing tandem of Bosa and Khalil Mack—it will be a strong complement to an offense that can move the ball in chunks.
The Chargers have twice lost to the Kansas City Chiefs—who are tied with the Buffalo Bills for the best record in the AFC—but those losses were by a combined six points. There's little reason to believe L.A. couldn't beat Kansas City in a third game or hang with any other contender in the conference.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 of 5
Super Bowl Odds: 28-1
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the same Super Bowl odds as the Minnesota Vikings, who have already won the NFC North and are currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay isn't even guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.
To get in, the Bucs must win the woeful NFC South. That challenge starts with beating the Panthers—another surging team—this week.
Why do the 7-8 Buccaneers have the same Super Bowl odds as the 12-3 Vikings? There's one reason, and his name is Tom Brady.
Brady hasn't played particularly well in 2022. His 87.9 passer rating is his lowest since 2013. Behind a banged-up offensive line, he hasn't had the time to consistently find star wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin deep downfield.
However, Brady has shown occasional flashes of brilliance. He led a stunning comeback victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 13 and another against the Arizona Cardinals last week. Is anyone going to count out the 45-year-old in a close playoff contest?
But the Buccaneers aren't a threat only because of Brady. They have players like Evans and Godwin, a strong backfield tandem in Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White and a defense that ranks sixth overall and seventh in points allowed.
Plus, with Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen (knee) possibly returning for the playoffs and tackle Donovan Smith returning to practice this week, the offensive line could be as healthy as it's been all season—if Tampa reaches the playoffs.
The Bucs haven't looked like title contenders at any point this season, but if they beat the Panthers, they'll be in the dance. If they can find the offensive chemistry that has eluded them in the regular season, they can make a serious run from there.
It's never too smart to bet against Brady in the postseason.
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