NFL Power Rankings: Top Seeds Most Likely to Be Upset in Playoffs

Every season a top NFL team falls earlier than expected, and the result always shakes up the playoff picture.

The New York Jets have been that team the past two seasons, but they will be forced to watch the playoffs from home this winter. Instead, the AFC's Pittsburgh Steelers will look to hit the road this postseason in hopes of taking down the conference's vulnerable top seeds. 

So which of the big four NFL first-round bye winners is most likely to be headed home early this January? Here we go.

4. Green Bay Packers

The Packers were one of just two teams in the NFC to go undefeated at home this season. The Saints also went 8-0 at home in 2011. 

Green Bay has more playoff experience than any team in the postseason this year considering that last winter they won three straight road playoff games before topping the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. 

The combination of that experience and their unstoppable offensive attack make them the hardest team to beat this postseason. 

3. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens were the only AFC team to go undefeated at home this season, a perfect 8-0 that included wins over the Texans, Steelers and Bengals.

They are a combined 5-0 against the rest of the AFC playoff teams this season, and that makes them the toughest AFC top seed to beat this winter.

Over the past three seasons, Baltimore has won four playoff games, all on the road, which is the mark of a Super Bowl contender.

2. New England Patriots

New England has been dominant this season, but unfortunately that dominance has come on the offensive side of the ball, a sort of success that can go as fast as it comes in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, their suspect pass defense ranks dead last in the NFL this season, and there is no question that AFC playoff powerhouses will be able to exploit it. 

Getting behind early is not an option in the playoffs, and a bad day from Tom Brady or even an average one could spark a dramatic turn around for the Pats this winter. 

1. San Francisco 49ers

The Niners have not been to the postseason since 2002, while the other aforementioned teams are all playoff veterans. 

Considering all the top seeds this season, and each's strengths and weaknesses, San Francisco quickly emerges as the the one with the greatest upset potential. 

Who knows what will happen if their stout D lets up a rushing touchdown or if their mediocre offensive attack gets hit with the turnover bug.

They lack the experience and firepower to comeback from a deficit, and that could prove fatal this postseason.