NFL MVP Race 2022-23: Latest Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 17

Joe TanseyDecember 27, 2022

NFL MVP Race 2022-23: Latest Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 17

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    KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - DECEMBER 24: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs onto the field during pregame against the Seattle Seahawks at Arrowhead Stadium on December 24, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
    David Eulitt/Getty Images

    The NFL Most Valuable Player race shifted in favor of the top AFC quarterbacks last week once Jalen Hurts' shoulder injury was revealed.

    Patrick Mahomes is the current favorite to win the award, but Josh Allen and Joe Burrow have a marquee stage on Monday night to impress voters and sway the odds in their favor.

    The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals play each other in Week 17.

    If either one of those quarterbacks turns in a massive performance in a win, they could close the gap to Mahomes.

    Allen and Burrow seem like the only legitimate contenders to Mahomes in the MVP race entering the weekend. Hurts is still dealing with the shoulder injury, and Justin Jefferson's push may end up being too late.

NFL MVP Odds

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    CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - DECEMBER 24: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball during the first half in the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on December 24, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
    Quinn Harris/Getty Images

    Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

    Patrick Mahomes (-500; bet $500 to win $100)

    Joe Burrow (+750; bet $100 to win $750)

    Josh Allen (+800)

    Jalen Hurts (+1000)

    Justin Jefferson (+5000)

1. Patrick Mahomes

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    KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - DECEMBER 24: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half of the game at Arrowhead Stadium on December 24, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
    David Eulitt/Getty Images

    Patrick Mahomes comes into Week 17 with 460 more passing yards than anyone in the NFL.

    Mahomes also leads the league in touchdown passes with 37.

    The Kansas City quarterback has lost one game since mid-October, and the Chiefs are poised to pounce on the No. 1 seed in the AFC if Buffalo loses to Cincinnati.

    Mahomes' numbers are incredible, but there is one weakness in his MVP resume: He threw for a pedestrian 223 yards and a touchdown in a loss to Cincinnati and was intercepted twice while throwing for 338 yards in a defeat to Buffalo.

    The 2018 NFL MVP did not beat the two other best teams in his conference, and some voters may use that against him if Joe Burrow or Josh Allen put on a master class of a performance in Week 17.

    Mahomes putting up eye-popping numbers against the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders should seal the MVP.

    He could secure the award in the minds of most voters after the Monday night clash in Cincinnati if neither of his closest MVP contenders turn in a strong performance.

2. Joe Burrow

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    FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS - DECEMBER 24: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals attempts a pass during the first quarter against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on December 24, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Nick Grace/Getty Images)
    Nick Grace/Getty Images

    Joe Burrow is second to Mahomes in passing yards and touchdowns.

    The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback produced 375 yards and three touchdowns through the air on 52 pass attempts in Week 16 to beat the New England Patriots and has four straight multiscore games through the air. He also has a completion percentage over 69 in three of those four contests.

    Burrow was impressive against Kansas City, as he completed 80.7 percent of his passes and threw for 286 yards and two scores. He needs a similar performance on Monday against Buffalo to solidify his MVP credentials.

    Burrow could still be in the voting conversation with a loss, but a win could vault him over Mahomes if he plays well enough and puts the Bengals in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

3. Josh Allen

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    CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - DECEMBER 24: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills throws a pass during the first quarter in the game against the Chicago Bills at Soldier Field on December 24, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
    Quinn Harris/Getty Images

    Josh Allen has the potential to change the thinking of MVP voters if he moves one step closer to locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC on Monday.

    Buffalo is tied with Kansas City at 12-3. The Bills need to finish with two wins to remain as the top seed over the Chiefs on a head-to-head tiebreaker.

    Allen had 329 passing yards and three touchdowns in the win over Kansas City. If he produces a similar stat line against Burrow and the Bengals, he could jump to the front of the MVP conversation.

    Allen does not have as many passing yards as Mahomes and Burrow, but he is third in passing touchdowns, has more rushing yards than both quarterbacks and is currently the marquee player on the top team in the AFC.

    The 26-year-old has all the credentials behind him to make a late charge at his first MVP award. He would be the first Bills player to win the award since Thurman Thomas in 1991.

    Allen still has work to do to catch Mahomes, but he has a realistic scenario in front of him to chase down the current MVP favorite.


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