2022 NFL Season Proving That the Right Situation Is Biggest Key to QB Success

The 2022 NFL season has featured a glut of young, exciting quarterback talent. In the AFC alone, the playoff field—if things ended today—would feature Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa (if healthy) and Lamar Jackson (if healthy).

However, there's a lot more that goes into being a successful quarterback than raw talent or draft status. Specifically, quarterbacks have to land in the right situation, with the right coaches, and we've seen numerous examples of this in 2022.

In fact, we saw several examples in Week 17 alone, and no single game exemplified this phenomenon better than Sunday's matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams—a game that preceded the Broncos' firing of head coach Nathaniel Hackett.

On one side, we had Russell Wilson. He's a nine-time Pro Bowler who carved out a Hall of Fame resume with the Seattle Seahawks. On the other side, we had Baker Mayfield, a quarterback traded away by the Cleveland Browns in the offseason and cut by the Carolina Panthers less than a month ago.

Mayfield finished 24-of-28 for 230 yards and two touchdowns against a good Broncos defense. Wilson went 15-of-27 for 214 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions.

Is Mayfield a different quarterback than he was with Cleveland or with Carolina? No. Has Wilson suddenly forgotten how to play football? It's unlikely. The reality is that these two quarterbacks have ended up in different situations than they experienced previously.

Mayfield has landed with a quarterback friendly coach in Sean McVay. He's in a system that utilizes spacing to get receivers open downfield and with an offensive guru who is willing to forge an offense around his quarterback.

As a result, Mayfield has led the Rams to two wins in three games and has looked, at times, every bit as good as he did during his promising rookie season in Cleveland or in 2020, when he led the Browns to their first playoff win since their return to Cleveland in 1999.

Wilson, on the other hand, landed with an inexperienced coach in Nathaniel Hackett and in an offense that lacks chemistry. He's lost any semblance of confidence and doesn't seem to trust what he's seeing on the field.

The Broncos traded away two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, quarterback Drew Lock, defensive lineman Shelby Harris and tight end Noah Fant to obtain Wilson and a fourth-round pick.

Denver is not getting a fair return on investment.

There could be several reasons Wilson has flopped in Denver, and none of them is Wilson's skill set. Perhaps Hackett was in over his head and failed to hold his team together through a turbulent campaign—players don't seem to believe in one another, and they certainly don't seem to believe in Wilson anymore.

Perhaps offensive coordinator Justin Outten has failed to craft a scheme that accentuates what Wilson does best. Maybe Wilson, so used to sustained success in Seattle, has spent the season pressing too hard to make something happen.

Perhaps, though it would have felt illogical to say a few months ago, Wilson really was the product of a run-first Seattle offense that only asked him to play hero on occasion and usually late in games.

Whatever the real reason behind Wilson's decline, it's clear that Denver isn't the right spot for him right now—and he's not alone.

Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are both future first-ballot Hall of Famers. They were the top two vote-getters in the MVP race last season, with Rodgers winning his second in a row. Both have faced adversity in 2022 and have struggled because of it.

Brady lost head coach Bruce Arians in the offseason and has dealt with an injury-hampered offensive line all season. He hasn't had the time in the pocket needed to attack defenses deep and has instead tried to play game manager in a Buccaneers offense that can't stay on the field.

Last year's Buccaneers offense ranked second in yards and second in points. This season, Tampa ranks 15th in yards and 28th in scoring. Brady's passer rating has dipped from 102.1 in 2021 to 87.9 this season. It's hard to believe that the 45-year-old has suddenly hit the proverbial cliff, though, because he'll occasionally pull brilliance out of his bag in key situations—as he did in Sunday's comeback win over the Arizona Cardinals.

Even the G.O.A.T. can struggle in a bad situation, and it will surprise few if Brady seeks a new situation in 2023.

Rodgers, who signed a three-year, $150.8 million extension with the Green Bay Packers in the offseason, will probably remain in Green Bay in 2023. But he has reason to be frustrated too.

The Packers lost Hackett to Denver in the offseason and traded away Rodgers' top target, Davante Adams. Green Bay has two talented rookie receivers in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, but the two were rarely on the field together before both were active in Week 15.

According to The Athletic's Matt Schneidman, Doubs and Watson played just 70 snaps together before Week 15. The Packers are 2-0 since having both healthy again. Still, Rodgers' dip in efficiency (111.9 rating in 2021 to a 91.3 rating this season) has been jarring.

Brady and Rodgers may sneak into the postseason, and they could be dangerous there because of their postseason experience and ability. However, neither has looked like championship material this season because of their situations.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have quarterbacks like Mayfield and Pittsburgh Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett.

Pickett wasn't widely viewed as an elite prospect coming into the 2022 draft, and the overall narrative was that he would need time to develop.

"While Pickett shows a solid understanding of NFL-level concepts, he is inconsistent with his timing on throws, often going one-and-done with his reads. He will also end up late getting to a second option on a concept because he is guessing when the next route will become available," Nate Tice of the Bleacher Report Scouting Department wrote of Pickett before the draft.

Pickett got off to a slow start, throwing eight interceptions in his first five games. He has looked solid for the Steelers in recent weeks, though, and performed like a legitimate franchise quarterback in Saturday's comeback win over the Las Vegas Raiders. He led a go-ahead touchdown drive with less than three minutes remaining and punctuated it with a phenomenal strike to rookie wideout George Pickens.

Over his last five complete games—Pickett missed the bulk of Week 14 and all of Week 15 with a concussion—he's gone 4-1 and posted a passer rating above 80 four times.

Did Pickett trick all of the draft analysts and the quarterback-needy teams that didn't draft him? That's unlikely, and if Pickett really was pro-ready, he wouldn't have started the season behind Mitch Trubisky.

What has worked in Pickett's favor is his place with a well-run organization. Pittsburgh still hasn't experienced a losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin (that would change with another loss this season), and it has a track record for developing young offensive talent.

And it helps that the Steelers have surrounded Pickett with players like Pickens, 2021 Pro Bowler Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth. Questions do remain about offensive coordinator Matt Canada, as the Steelers rank just 29th in scoring, but Pickett has many of the pieces around him needed to succeed.

Of course, not even Pickett has had the immediate success of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who stands as the best example of a quarterback landing in the right situation. This year's Mr. Irrelevant—the title given to the final player selected in the draft's final round—has been anything but irrelevant during the playoff race.

Purdy is San Francisco's third starting quarterback of the season, following injuries to Trey Lance (ankle) and Jimmy Garoppolo (foot). He's led San Francisco to four straight victories and has thrown two touchdown passes in each of his last four games.

It's obvious that Purdy has a high football IQ and enough arm talent to run San Francisco's offense. One only needs to watch him play to see it.

However, Purdy's success has come because he's in Kyle Shanahan's offense and surrounded by elite talent.

Like McVay, Shanahan utilizes spacing to break receivers open and provide easy targets down the field. Having pass-catchers like Deebo Samuel (currently injured), Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey has certainly helped.

It's extremely unlikely that we'd be talking about Purdy in the same tone had he been drafted by the Houston Texans or the Carolina Panthers.

Tagovailoa had a good-not-great season in 2021 (90.1 rating) but has flourished this season after the Miami Dolphins hired an offensive head coach in Mike McDaniel—who came from Shanahan's staff—and added star wideout Tyreek Hill. Tagovailoa now leads the NFL with a 105.5 passer rating.

Similarly, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has risen to an MVP level in his second season under Nick Sirianni and with one of the league's best offensive lines—and in his first season with Pro Bowl wideout A.J. Brown.

No matter where a quarterback has been before, situations matter and coaching matters. This is something to keep in mind as we head into the 2023 offseason. There will never be enough good quarterbacks to go around, and several franchises will be seeking their next signal-callers in free agency and the draft.

Brady, Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett and Garoppolo are likely to headline the free-agent class. Quarterbacks C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson—all top-36 prospects in the B/R Scouting Department's latest draft rankings—highlight the incoming rookie class.

Are a quarterback's situation and coaching support everything? Of course not. Zach Wilson's struggles with the New York Jets provide a clear example of how a player can have a good situation and still flop because he's not good enough.

The Jets have gotten steady play from the likes of Joe Flacco, Chris Streveler and Mike White this season, but the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft has fallen flat more often than not.

Unlike Pickett, who has shown growth during the latter part of this season, Wilson is as much a detriment to his offense as he was at the start of his career.

But the right situation will definitely increase a quarterback's chances. Jacksonville Jaguars signal-caller Trevor Lawrence, selected one spot before Wilson, had a disastrous rookie campaign. He was barely better than Wilson (71.9 passer rating versus Wilson's 69.7 rating) but has left his Jets counterpart in the dust this season.

Lawrence has thrown for 24 touchdowns and has a 96.0 passer rating this season. He has also placed the Jaguars in position to win the AFC South. What has changed for him? The Jags hired an experienced coach in Doug Pederson and added talented players like Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram in the offseason.

Personnel executives will have to put in the work to find draft prospects who are more like Lawrence and less like Wilson. However, no quarterback in 2023 is going to be successful if he doesn't have the right pieces in place alongside him.

Yes, quarterback is the most important individual position in all of team sports. However, one only needs to look at the 2022 season to recognize that even a great quarterback can't carry a mediocre team to the pinnacle alone.

But the right team and the right situation can help a quarterback be great.