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The NFC Super Bowl Path Is Getting More and More Wide Open
December 9, 2022
For all intents and purposes, despite a victory Thursday night, last year's NFC champion is out of the 2022 Super Bowl picture. And that's appropriate because the conference's path to the Super Bowl is complicated.
Three teams stand out with three or fewer losses entering Week 14, but they have plenty working against them—and the next tier is loaded with intriguing squads that could make runs under the right circumstances.
Let's break it down.
The Big Three
The 11-1 Eagles are back on track, but their path is arduous
The Philadelphia Eagles may have the league's best record and the NFC's best Super Bowl odds at DraftKings following a blowout victory over the Tennessee Titans, but they have been off without tight end Dallas Goedert and lost NFL interception leader C.J. Gardner-Johnson after he suffered a lacerated kidney two weeks ago.
Philly was outplayed in back-to-back ugly performances against the Washington Commanders and Indianapolis Colts in November. It has rebounded in the win column but is about to launch a three-game road trip that includes matchups with the tough New York Giants and tougher Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles could blow their two-game lead in the NFC East, especially if they lose in Dallas on Christmas Eve.
The 10-2 Minnesota Vikings may be pretenders
Why? Well, they have scored just 10 more points than they've allowed and actually rank way down in 20th in the league in defense-adjusted value over average at Football Outsiders. Each of their last nine victories has come in a one-score game, which is arguably unsustainable.
Meanwhile, offensive linemen Garrett Bradbury (back) and Christian Darrisaw (concussion) have injuries in front of the historically inconsistent Kirk Cousins at quarterback. It has often been hard to trust the Vikes, and that remains the case despite their soft schedule down the stretch.
The 9-3 Cowboys might be in the wrong place at the wrong time
While a division title is still on the table for Dallas, the conference's top-rated team in DVOA is stuck in what is surprisingly the top division in the league. That two-game deficit to the Eagles will be tough to overcome, especially since Philly owns the head-to-head tiebreaker for now.
The Cowboys were already operating without nickel cornerback Jourdan Lewis and lost starter Anthony Brown to an Achilles injury Sunday. Finishing the regular season against Philadelphia, Tennessee and Washington (with the last two on the road) could mean Dallas will have a treacherous four-game, road-oriented mountain to climb in the playoffs.
The Potential Spoilers
About the elephant in the 8-4 49ers' quarterback room
A lot of folks were on the San Francisco 49ers' bandwagon prior to quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo's foot injury, but now the team has to roll with a third-string quarterback in rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy. Still, the Niners have allowed a league-low 15.8 points per game, and the offense is loaded. Oh, and Garoppolo and Trey Lance haven't been ruled out for the playoffs yet.
That brings the 7-5 Seahawks into play
The Seattle Seahawks are just a game back of San Francisco, and quarterback Geno Smith looks like his surprisingly strong start to the season wasn't a fluke. Super Bowl-winning head coach Pete Carroll is still Super Bowl-winning head coach Pete Carroll, and Seattle will go on the road just one more time.
The 7-win Giants and Commanders can't be ruled out
These two NFC East foes tied in Week 13 and remain in the picture with seven wins apiece. Washington's talented defense has hit a groove, quarterback Taylor Heinicke is holding it down, and the Commanders have lost just once in their last eight games. And while it's harder to be optimistic about New York, which has just one win since Halloween, there's no denying Saquon Barkley is one of the best players in the game—so there's always a chance.
The 6-6 Buccaneers' quarterback is Tom Brady
Enough said? I'll add that despite their record, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look primed to take the NFC South and haven't lost in regulation since Week 8. You can't count out the 2020 Super Bowl champs. No way.
What about the 5-7 Lions? (Seriously!)
The Detroit Lions are still a long shot, but Dan Campbell's inspired team nearly beat the juggernaut Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving. If that had happened, they would be riding a five-game winning streak with a manageable schedule down the stretch. Quarterback Jared Goff is playing excellent football with limited mistakes, and he had more than enough support as his team dominated the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13. They always fight hard at home, so don't be surprised if they take down the Vikings on Sunday.